ANALYSIS: Sea Change: Nordic-Baltic Security in a New Era

On Sep 28, the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) published a new report. The authors are Edward Lucas, Catherine Sendak, Charlotta Collén, Jan Kallberg and Krista Viksnins

The Introduction states: “The Baltic Sea region is urgently building a new and coherent security architecture. For the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, both highlighted a significant security challenge and created a potential solution. The invasion confirmed long-standing security worries and vulnerabilities of many countries in the region. 

Nevertheless, there is hope for the region, Finland joined NATO and Sweden is on the verge of accession. This signifies a dramatic change for Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, and Sweden, for the region, for the European continent, and for the transatlantic alliance. Russian aggression, increased security challenges, and the emergence of a stronger alliance have redrawn the military map in the Baltic Sea.”  

Here is the Report’s Executive Summary

• Prompted by Russia’s war in Ukraine, the countries of the Baltic Sea region are belatedly building coherent security architecture, but revanchist Russia poses grave challenges. Time is short.
• Consensus about the gravity and breadth of the threat from Russia is emerging. Agreement about how to counter it is patchier.
• The military threat from Russia to the Baltic states casts a much wider shadow. Allies near and far must help with better plans and more weapons to deter, predict, forestall, and, if necessary, repel an attack.
• Getting non-military resilience right makes war less likely.
• Annual public assessments of the threat, and of the level of resilience, will raise awareness among the public and decision-makers, set benchmarks, and encourage exchanges of expertise.  
• Fixing the region’s security means overcoming deep historical, economic, and cultural divisions. It is feasible, but at a substantial political and economic cost.
• A successful regional, multinational, and allied approach to integrated security would be a template for other NATO regions.

Key Recommendations:

• Accept the political and economic cost of integrated security at a regional and national level, including the financial cost of defense spending and national resilience.  
• The broadest shoulders bear the biggest burdens. The Baltic states cannot afford the advanced weapons systems necessary for their own and regional security.  
• All countries in the region must intensify their efforts in providing host nation support. This should be aimed toward enabling a persistent presence of rotating forces.  
• Implement a public messaging program to prepare the civilian population of the region for what lies ahead.  
• Countries of the region should compile a joint annual threat assessment. 
• Create a joint regional resilience program with a legal and financial framework that includes bilateral and multilateral resilience exchanges.

The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, public policy institution based in Washington DC, focused on strengthening the transatlantic alliance through cutting-edge research, analysis, and programs.