ANALYSIS: Russian Troops Claim to Grab Ground in Surprise Assault, Threaten Breakthrough in Battleground Avdiivka

Russian infantry punched at least two kilometers into weakening Ukrainian lines with a surprise attack and were threatening a breakthrough in the battleground Avdiivka sector, news and battle reports said on Tuesday.

Russian milbloggers said assault groups from the 74th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade broke into Ukrainian fortified positions in and around the village Ocheretyne, to the northwest of the battleground city of Avdiivka, capturing most of the village and putting defenders to flight.

The nighttime attacks by infiltrating infantry were timed to hit as Kyiv commanders rotated troops in the sector, the milblogger Dva Mayora among other pro-Moscow information platforms claimed.

Russia’s 74th Brigade started the war as a professional unit manned by regular troops and was among the first Kremlin combat formations to cross Ukraine’s border and invade in February 2022. Since then, the 74th has taken crushing casualties, particularly in the Battle of Siversky Donets River crossings in May 2022, a Russian defeat, and during frontal assaults on the city of Avdiivka in the second half of 2023, a Russian victory.

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The pro-Ukraine Deep State information platform citing battlefield reports from both sides said that Russian forces had advanced more than two kilometers in as many days and that Russian capture of southern portions of the tactically important Ocheretyne village – a local road and rail hub – had created a Kremlin salient deep into Ukrainian lines. That source said fighting was still in progress.

A Monday evening Deep State comment said in part: “The enemy captured the southern part of Ocheretyne. The [Russians] caught [Ukrainian] Defense Forces on a troop rotation… now the enemy managed to take advantage of the situation, and all those [Russian troops] who had been concentrated in the suburbs [outside Ocheretyne] for the last few days, have spread out and are already hiding in the southern part of the village and multi-story buildings.”

A Tuesday morning statement by Joint Forces Khortytsia, the regional Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) headquarters commanding Ukrainian troops in the southeastern sector of the fighting front, admitted Russian forces had captured buildings in the village and ejected defenders, but claimed the situation was under control and that the Kremlin advance was contained.

The statement read by press officer Nazar Voloshin said: “The situation in the area of Ocheretyne settlement of Donetsk region is difficult: in an effort to seize the settlement, the enemy is using the entire available arsenal of weapons against our units, including chemical weapons, and is trying to gain a foothold in the southern part of Ocheretyne. Currently, the majority of the village is controlled by [Ukrainian] Defense Forces. The southern part of the settlement is under fire by our [Ukrainian] artillery, and comprehensive measures are being taken to knock out the enemy from the southern part of Ocheretyne and to stabilize the situation in this sector.”

The pro-Kremlin Zaporozhsky Front military information platform, along with the pro-Kremlin milblogger Rezervsvo, on Monday claimed Russian forces had gained total control of Ocheretyne village and were advancing southwards against little opposition.

A dinner-time flash dispatch sent to more than 200,000 followers said: “Urgent! Avdiivsky sector! More positive news has arrived in the evening. Our assault troops have entered the village of Novobakhmutovka, south of Ocheretyne, [after capturing Ocheretyne]. The enemy is withdrawing its units from [Ukrainian positions around the village] Soloviove. It seems like the Russian army has found a weak point in the enemy’s defense, which is slowly crumbling.”

Fact-checking contradicted the claims of a Russian breakthrough. Practically all other sources said Ukrainian forces had lost positions in the southeast part of the village, but heavy fighting was still in progress.

A Tuesday morning daily situation report by Ukraine’s Army General Staff (AGS) confirmed heavy fighting in the Avdiivka-Ocheretyne sector and claimed that Russian forces over the past 24 hours had launched 18 ground attacks against Ukrainian positions, all repelled.

Ukrainian milbloggers and combat unit members posting on social media widely supported news of the Russian advance of 1-3 km, the capture of at least two-thirds of Ocheretyne village, and the rapid evacuation of Ukrainian defensive positions in the area under heavy pressure by Kremlin troops. Some unconfirmed reports named the Ukrainian unit losing the defensive positions as the 115th Brigade.

Drone video confirmed battles were still in progress with multiple reports identifying elements of the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, one of the AFU’s best-known and -equipped fighting formations, as the main counterattack force thrown into the line around Ocheretyne in a bid to contain the Russian advance.

Raised in early 2023, the 47th, according to open sources, is the only combat formation in the entire AFU equipped with the powerful US-made Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle and the M1A2 Abrams main battle tank. The formation spearheaded Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, but since then, following the sacking of the brigade commander and other senior staff, the 47th had developed into a reliable unit able to deliver heavy firepower.

Internal 47th Brigade chat groups monitored by Kyiv Post said that some sub-units of the formation had been planning to go on leave after nearly a year in the fighting line, but because of the break-down of Ukrainian defenses around Ocheretyne, they had again been thrown into combat as reinforcements, where they were holding their ground.

An undated battle video published by the 47th Brigade on Monday evening, and geolocated to the village of Berdychi, between Ocheretyne village and Avdiivka, showed an experienced Bradley crew traveling at speed across a battlefield, unloading a squad of infantrymen, picking up wounded, and lighting up possible Russian positions with bursts of chain gun fire.

Video published by Strike Drones Company, a unit operating kamikaze robot aircraft in support of the 47th Brigade, claimed its pilots destroyed seven Russian armored vehicles and killed or wounded at least 20 Russian soldiers in failed attacks during Monday in the Berdychi sector. Ukraine’s central command later confirmed the claims.

Ukrainian Bohdan Myroshnykov, a milblogger and volunteer supporting Kyiv’s troops in the eastern sector, in April 23 personal Telegram channel comments said that although Ukrainian forces were still holding positions around Ocheretyne the situation was serious and could deteriorate:

“There is nothing good about Ocheretyne. The enemy was able to capture the railway station of the same name (as the village) very quickly and is now attacking the eastern part of the village.

But the village is big, there is still room to defend. There is an industrial zone, there are high-rise buildings (although part of one has already been lost). The main thing is to stabilize the situation as quickly as possible,” Myroshnykov said in part.

Fact-check information: On Monday, April 22 pro-Russia milbloggers Zaporozhsky Front and Rezervsvo claimed Russian forces had captured the tactically important village of Ocheretyne and that Russian troops had broken through Ukrainian lines and were advancing southwards. Ukrainian officials, independent and even other Russian sources contradicted the claim. According to the overwhelming weight of first- and second-hand reports from the scene, as well as geolocated drone video, fighting on Monday and Tuesday in Ocheretyne was still in progress and control of the village was still hotly disputed.