The Russian state news agency Izvestiya reported on Feb. 4 that designers from Russia’s Stary Oskol “Reanimator” design bureau have revealed they are developing a mobile control system that will allow a swarm of fiber-optic drones to be launched and controlled by a single operator.
The system will consist of an unspecified vehicle platform that will carry “hangars” housing up to 12 artificial intelligence (AI) enhanced drones. The artist’s impression of the system suggests it will be mounted on a military truck.
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The platform will act as the control center for the fiber-optic controlled drones which will operate singly or in a swarm to carry out reconnaissance, surveillance or kamikaze attacks, according to the report.
The designers say the system will be ready for demonstration at Russia’s annual “International Military-Technical Forum” in August and for operational deployment shortly thereafter.
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‘Food, brain, and hangar’
Mikhail Klimchuk, the executive director of “Reanimator,” says “Cerebrus” is much more than just a launch platform but contains all the equipment necessary for it to act also as an all-inclusive control center for its drones – it acts as both a logistical base and a tactical command post:
“This is their food, brain, and hangar.”
He added that all of the drones are interconnected and interchangeable. If deployed in pairs, one will conduct reconnaissance to identify targets for the second attack drone to engage.
According to literature released with the announcement, the AI module in each drone can be programmed to allow it to perform autonomously with its human operators primarily involved in monitoring, updating targeting information and making any other technical adjustments rather than being in direct control.
The concept of drones acting in swarms is gaining traction among military equipment designers, tacticians and strategists. By combining numerous drones to operate as a collective unit their numbers will make interception much more difficult while enabling greater “on target” effects than that of a single drone.
The use of sophisticated AI algorithms will, in theory, allow each drone to adapt to changing battlefield conditions and to communicate with others in the swarm, allowing the collective mission to succeed and minimizing the effects from the loss of individual drones or even the control center.
Vulnerabilities of the Cerebrus concept
Analysts examining the proposal indicate that while the concept is promising, the use of “tethered” drones in an attempt to overcome the threat of electronic warfare jamming, could limit its use on the battlefield and make the system as a whole vulnerable.
While fiber-optic links have reduced the effect of EW on drones, counter drone technologies are advancing considerably – just on Jan. 30, Ukraine’s 414th “Madyar’s Birds” Battalion, was able to detect and destroy an “invulnerable’ Russian fiber-optic drone.
The fiber-optic tethers themselves impose range limitations on their deployment – depending on the size of the drone, the maximum range is likely to be limited to around 10-20 kilometers (6-12 miles) and that will impose weight limits on the size of payloads it can carry. The link itself can be a double-edged weapon often susceptible to getting tangled in trees, power lines and foliage causing issues of loss or high-risk recovery operations.
Some commentators ask if AI-equipped drones are going to be deployed to operate autonomously, why the need for fiber-optic cables – once they are launched, they will, in theory, carry out their mission without the need for operator influence.
Another concern is the cost of the platform itself which will be costly to produce and, being technically complex, will require significant maintenance support. One of the attractions of drones is the cost-benefit analysis between the value of the drone (usually measured in the hundreds or low thousands) against the target value (often measured in the hundreds of thousands or millions).
Some analysts consider that the control platform itself will be the weakest link, especially if truck mounted, even if a multi-wheeled drive vehicle. It will obviously become the target for enemy reconnaissance and much easier to detect than its drones when in operation. Although mobile, how easily can it move under battlefield conditions, where even tracked vehicles suffer and if it has to “bug out” what happens to the drones tethered to it?
Although research and development into the AI control of swarms is ongoing, in both civil and defense-related areas, the practical application of the theory has yet to be operationally tested against the numerous possibilities and scenarios likely to be encountered on the battlefield.
While the utility of single fiber-optic controlled drones has been proven on the battlefield, the idea of multiple drones physically attached to a single point of origin is potentially a different matter. The need for accurate targeting, meteorological, and geographical real-world data, even allowing for the use of AI, will be daunting and, some would say, currently not achievable.
While on paper Cerebrus seems a logical next step in drone warfare development and will undoubtedly appeal to the Kremlin’s search for the next big battlefield game changer, most experts are skeptical that it will achieve the desired outcome in the near future – if ever.
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