The events and public statements leading to the 61st Munich Security Conference (MSC) that began Friday in the Bavarian capital could not have been more alarming to the Ukrainian leadership and population as a whole.
Starting Wednesday, US official remarks regarding the future of the Russo-Ukrainian war were coming down as fast as the relentless snowflakes on the first day of the MSC.
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First came Trump’s announcement on his phone conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, raising concerns in Kyiv that a “peace deal” might be struck with Moscow behind Ukraine’s back.
The next day, Pete Hegseth, America’s defense secretary, spoke about the impossibility of Ukraine’s NATO membership, describing Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders as an “unrealistic objective.”
He later appeared to roll back these comments, insisting that “everything is on the table.”
A meeting on the sideline of the MSC planned between Zelensky and Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, and the American Vice President J.D. Vance, who previously said he did “not care what happens to Ukraine one way or another” was postponed for unknown reasons.
Before the start of the MSC, however, Vance told reporters that Washington could hit Russia with sanctions if the latter doesn’t agree to a peace deal with Ukraine.
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Trump Team Reportedly Comes Back With ‘Improved’ Offer on ‘Rare Earths’
Despite a busy start of the week filled with mixed signals prior to the MSC, the first day of the official conference did not disappoint. Several key themes relevant to the future of the Russo-Ukrainian emerged.
The EU is committed to more defense spending & faster EU accession for Ukraine
In her upbeat remarks, Ursula von der Leyen, the Head of the EU Commission, emphasized the need to increase spending on defense and get the right capabilities to fill investment gaps.
Europe needs to work together with NATO, von der Leyen said.
She also spoke extensively about the need to look at pan-European defense projects. Now even the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is changing its investment and lending practices and diversifying into defense, von der Leyen said.
This is all necessary to ensure just and lasting peace in Ukraine. What is also required is for Europe to accelerate Ukraine’s accession process, von der Leyen said..
“They are part of the family and this is where their future lies.”
“Free speech, I fear, is in retreat”: America complains about democratic decline in Europe, urges the block to spend more on defense
Vance took the center stage delivering a much anticipated speech, which many hoped would address Russia’ continued war of aggression.
Instead, Vance said that Europeans were losing their democratic process – a remark that led to seemingly incredulous laughter from the audience.
Vance went so far as saying that the biggest threat faced by Europe is not Russia or China, but: “the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the US.”
One of his main condemnations was linked to Romania canceling the outcome of its elections, which he deemed “undemocratic.”
Last December, the Romanian court annulled the outcome of the Romanian elections on the grounds of Russian meddling with the results.
As expected, the issue of mass migration featured prominently in his remarks. Vance also spoke at length about the need to listen to voters and address their concerns, such as unchecked migration.
“There is no security if you are afraid of the voices, the opinions and the conscience that guide your very own people ... If you’re running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you,” Vance said.
Germany stands united
It would have been interesting to let Vance debate with the German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose whole speech at the start of the MSC focused on the urgent need to preserve the rules-based international global order, so deeply undermined by Russia’s ongoing all-out war on Ukraine.
Steinmeier also alluded to the growing and extremely visible influence of the tech giants on Washington.
“I am concerned about how a small group of elite business people are rewriting the rules of democracy and how some of them express content for democratic institutions,” Steinmeier said.
As for the rest of the German officials, the country’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, responded to Vance’s comments before focusing “on the most pressing issue of our times – the Russian invasion.”
“He (Vance) compares the condition in Europe with some that prevail in autocracies. This is not acceptable!” The rise of the ADF party, according to Pistorius, is a testament to Germany’s democratic process that could be summarized as ‘We fight for your right to be against us.’”
During a meeting with Vance, just before the official kick-off of the conference, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, said a “sham peace” in Ukraine would enable further Russian aggression and would actually weaken the US.
She also responded to Trump’s earlier comments on Russia re-joining the G-7 club of industrialized economies, saying that there should be no normal cooperation with Putin’s Russia.
“Be very honest, the United States, they never saw us in NATO.”
In a panel discussion titled “Strategic Investment: The Future of US - Ukraine Security Cooperation” Zelensky engaged with a number of the US senators, including Lindsey Graham, Sheldon Whitehouse, John Cornyn and Jeanne Shaheen.
The Ukrainian president said that NATO was never really on the US agenda for Ukraine.
“Be very honest, United States, they never saw us in NATO. They just spoke about it. But they really didn’t want us in NATO.”
Regarding the future of peace talk, the Zelensky said that the only Russian official he was prepared to talk to was Putin, after agreeing on a common plan with Trump and European leaders. Zelensky also shared that Trump had given him his personal phone number.
Senator Graham was the most outspoken amongst the US delegation, saying that dismissing Ukraine’s NATO membership is not a wise move and should be considered immediately, should Russia retreat from any agreed peace deals.
“I want Putin to know if he ever does this again, you go into NATO right away. I want to take the mystery out of what happens if there’s another invasion, you get sanctioned and Ukraine becomes part of NATO. There’s a bunch of bad things coming your way, we’ll have troops on the ground in Ukraine, we will have American business interests and will have a Ukrainian military that nobody in their right mind wants to fight, but how about this idea?”
It is unclear how much support such an idea could have within the Trump administration.
The second day of the MSC is poised to bring more discussions of the future of the Russo-Ukrainian War.
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