ANALYSIS: ‘We’re Choosing to Blind Ourselves’ – US Backs Off Russian Threats, PART I

As US President Donald Trump pushes for closer ties with Moscow, the US has quietly halted coordinated efforts to counter Russian sabotage, disinformation, and cyberattacks. 

This policy shift has sparked concerns that Washington is not only weakening its own defenses but also leaving Ukraine and NATO allies more exposed to Russian hybrid warfare tactics – potentially as part of a broader diplomatic maneuver involving a negotiated settlement to the war with Moscow.

This is the first of a two-part analysis examining the shifting US approach to Russian hybrid warfare. Part I explores how the US has scaled back its counter-sabotage efforts, while Part II examines whether cybersecurity is being leveraged as a bargaining chip in negotiations over Ukraine’s future.

US shifts strategy toward Russia

Trump’s decision to de-prioritize countering Russian hybrid warfare has raised alarms within the US national security establishment, as multiple agencies have paused work aimed at monitoring and disrupting Russia’s covert operations.

The National Security Council (NSC) has suspended coordination with European allies on these matters, and joint efforts between US agencies – including the FBI, Department of Homeland Security, and State Department – have been placed on hold, according to a Reuters report published on Wednesday citing current and former officials.

A White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, did not confirm whether Trump directly ordered the suspension of efforts to counter Russia’s sabotage campaign or whether the halt was part of broader national security policy shifts.

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But the move aligns with broader administration decisions favoring Moscow, including dismantling a task force focused on seizing Russian oligarchs’ assets and ending FBI operations designed to combat Russian election interference.

NATO allies left in the dark

With the NSC no longer coordinating counter-sabotage efforts, European intelligence officials warn that US disengagement is leaving both Washington and its allies vulnerable. 

British security sources told Reuters that while basic intelligence-sharing continues, the lack of coordination has disrupted longstanding defense frameworks.

We’re choosing to blind ourselves to potential acts of war against us,” said Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. NATO officials fear this shift exposes frontline states – Poland, the Baltics, and Germany – to increased Russian subversion, with no clear US strategy to replace prior efforts.

Several EU member states are now weighing independent counter-sabotage initiatives, possibly led by Germany and France. But without Washington’s full participation, these initiatives may lack critical intelligence resources previously provided by US agencies.

Former US intelligence officials have drawn comparisons to the pre-2014 era, when Western nations largely underestimated Russian hybrid warfare tactics, leading to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea with minimal resistance. Now, some warn that the Kremlin sees US disengagement as a green light to intensify hybrid warfare across Europe.

Cybersecurity as a diplomatic weapon?

Rather than fully disengaging, Washington may be using cybersecurity as a bargaining chip – signaling to Moscow that it is willing to limit intelligence coordination in exchange for diplomatic concessions. This echoes the 1987 INF Treaty negotiations when the US and Soviet Union scaled back surveillance operations to build trust and finalize arms control agreements.

This shift is unfolding just as Trump intensifies diplomatic outreach to Putin, linking cybersecurity and intelligence-sharing policy directly to broader ceasefire talks in Ukraine. If Washington is indeed trading cyber intelligence for concessions, the risks for Kyiv – and Europe – are enormous.

Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a closely watched call on Tuesday to discuss Ukraine’s future and strengthening Washington-Moscow relations after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to a temporary ceasefire proposed by Trump last week.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that “the ball is in Russia’s court” to accept the ceasefire as the first step of a peace plan after the talks, and Putin agreed that a temporary ceasefire was a move in the right direction – without making any firm commitments to uphold the pause. 

Within hours of the Trump-Putin call on Tuesday, Russian forces launched new attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, including strikes in Slovyansk and a railway station near Dnipro. Zelensky denounced Putin for quickly reneging on his ceasefire proposal and reminded allies that Russia has repeatedly used ceasefires as cover for military regrouping. 

The quick collapse of Trump’s ceasefire initiative has reinforced concerns in Kyiv that Washington is more focused on placating Moscow than securing a lasting peace.  

But cybersecurity may not just be an afterthought – it could be a strategic bargaining chip. As Washington redefines its approach to Russia, intelligence-sharing and cyber defense may be reshaped to fit a broader diplomatic calculus. 

In Part II, we explore whether cybersecurity is being used as leverage in talks over Ukraine’s future – and what risks this poses for Kyiv and NATO allies.