OPINION: Last Week in Ukraine: Strategic Initiative and Future Plans

Lats week  was “hot” at the front: the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) liberated 40 settlements, 3,000 sq. km of the Ukrainian territory, advanced 100 kilometers deep into the enemy in the Kharkiv direction.

Serious events also took place in the international arena – the process of military-technical assistance received new impulses after Ramstein-5.

Read about this in the weekly analysis prepared by the Information Defence experts.

STRATEGIC VISION

General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the AFU Commander-in-Chief , together with Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, the Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and former commander of the Airborne Assault Forces, published the article “Prospects for ensuring the military campaign of 2023: the Ukrainian perspective”. In the program, the well-respected authors outlined the prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the strategy of the armed forces of Ukraine in this military conflict.

The article was published on the official state website under the authorship of the Commander-in-Chief and People’s Deputy, which testifies to its status and unity in the views of the military, executive power and a large part of patriotic parliamentarians. This, in fact, gives hope: The outlined plans will not simply remain on newsprint, but will find support in the Parliament of Ukraine.

The article, which we recommend for careful reading, contains a number of important signals directed to Ukrainian society, our partners, and the Russian occupiers.

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SIGNALS TO UKRAINIAN SOCIETY

The generals are convinced of Ukraine’s victory, but the Russian-Ukrainian war will not end in 2022. It will have a rather long-term nature.

Lately, hat-throwing sentiments about a quick and easy victory have been circulated among part of the political leadership and in wider society.

Ukraine will win. There is no doubt about that but, unfortunately, the path to victory will be difficult and long, with pain, tears, and losses.

Ukraine and its armed forces are ready for the use of nuclear weapons by Putin’s Russia.

Ukraine will not capitulate, even in the case of the use of weapons of mass destruction. We are preparing for such developments in cooperation with our Western partners.

Ukraine will continue its struggle, because we have no other way out. In case of defeat, we have only one prospect – the physical destruction of the Ukrainian nation and the Ukrainian country.

Military threats are real along the entire length of the front – from Kyiv to Kherson.

The length of the entire front is approximately 1,300 km, and if we add the potentially possible areas of the Russian attacks, for example near Kyiv, then we have 2,500 km. Potential threats exist in case of attacks of the Russian occupying forces near Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, the Donetsk region, and even near Kyiv.

All this time, even by the standards of the Second World War, the line of military confrontation of the AFU must be held. This requires a sufficient amount of military equipment, weapons and professional personnel.

To win, Ukraine must have its own production of modern weapons and prepare at least 20-30 brigades equipped and trained according to NATO standards.

Ukraine and its army must be self-sufficient and rely mainly on its own economy. Therefore, it is extremely important to establish the production of modern Ukrainian military equipment.

We hope that one trillion Hr, which were announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for financing the defense and security sector, will not be directed this time to the restoration of roads, but rather to the development and production of Ukrainian weapons.

It should be used by highly professional Ukrainian military personnel trained according to NATO standards, which must be reduced to at least 20-30 brigades.

And finally: Ukrainian military leadership plans to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine.

The authors remove any doubts about the strategic goals of Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The main goal of the AFU is to liberate the entire territory of Ukraine from the Russian occupiers. A strategic offensive operation to liberate the temporarily occupied Crimea is planned for 2023.

The military leadership of the country understands that even if the territory of Ukraine is completely liberated from the Russian invaders, threats to the national security of our country and new Russian aggression remain in the future.

SIGNALS TO OUR PARTNERS

The difference in capabilities between Ukraine and Russia does not allow the armed forces to inflict a quick and final defeat on the Russian occupation forces. The AFU  do not have such a number of fire weapons, artillery, airplanes, rotorcraft, and other military equipment that the Russian occupiers have. It is possible to overcome this disparity quickly if significantly more Western weapons and equipment are supplied to Ukraine.

On the front, the Kupiansk-Izium offensive operation was a turning point. On the front of military and technical assistance, Ramstein-5 became such a turning point and it’s not about the amount of weapons and equipment that our partners have committed to deliver to Ukraine at this meeting.

It is a fundamental change in the philosophy of deliveries.

First, the United States, as the main provider of military technical assistance, will supply the military equipment through the lend-lease in the fiscal year of 2023.

Second, stocks of weapons in warehouses in Western countries are running out and they are turning to ordering weapons and military equipment from the manufacturers.

Third, the military and technical assistance of Western countries will be directed not only to meeting the current needs, but also to the re-equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine according to NATO standards.

This is a task for the future, for the post-war peace, for the modern professional armed forces of the country.

Fourth, military-technical assistance will be provided not only to our country, but also to those countries of the North Atlantic Alliance that are currently re-equipping their armed forces.

This, in fact, strengthens the capabilities of Ukraine, because we are talking about the eastern flank of the bloc.

SIGNAL to Putin’s Russia

Putin’s Russia feels impunity and the majority of its population does not personally feel either the course or the consequences of the war: with impunity due to the physical remoteness and lack of means in Ukraine to fire military objects on the territory of Russia, from which the strikes are carried out.

By the way, information defense experts wrote about this in one of their previous reviews, after a missile attack on the Russian airfield near Yevpatoria.

Sooner or later, the war will be transferred to the territory of Russia, where armed forces will attack military facilities. For this, we still need modern weapons, for example, those HARPOON and ATACMS missiles.

SIGNALS FROM THE FRONT

Despite all the serious signals we received during the week from the military-political leadership and from our Western partners, the main news still came from the front. Now we will not analyze how exactly the Kupianls–Izium offensive operation is going – this is the task of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and purely military experts.

In the post, information defense experts will focus on the consequences of recent events.

First. The Armed Forces of Ukraine confidently seized the strategic initiative. From now on they will impose their will, strategy and operational areas of offensives and defense operations of the enemy.

Second. There was a cascading collapse of the front not only in the Kupiansk and Izum directions, but also throughout the entire Kharkiv region, and a threat was created to the occupying forces, which are trying to advance on Sloviansk and Bakhmut.

Third. The 25,000-strong enemy group on the right bank of the Dnipro, near Kherson, was blocked and excluded from the game. The aggressor is deprived of opportunities for operational maneuver with reserves, and cannot transfer units from there to more threatening areas of hostilities.

Fourth. Ukrainian society finally received long-awaited news about serious successes at the front that will significantly strengthen our fighting spirit and faith in victory.

Western partners once again saw that the AFU are capable of fighting professionally and achieving strategic victories over the enemy.

In practice, the AFU demonstrated simultaneous strategic strikes in several operational areas. The war has entered its third phase, where we hope that the Ukraine will gain the strategic victory.