OPINION: Ukraine: Worst Case Scenarios

According to recent reports, the US president's national security aides said in a private meeting that Russia could win the war within weeks if Congress fails to act.

If Ukraine still had nuclear weapons, it’s clear that Russia would not have dared to invade it. But “what if” scenarios don’t help Ukraine. We must face the facts. The Z-cult winning would mean Ukraine drowning in blood.

So, it’s time to ask a haunting question: What should Ukraine’s survival strategy be if it gets dragged into the Russian world?

Government-in-exile

If Ukraine falls, a Ukrainian government-in-exile must be established. It wouldn’t be surprising if such a government is formed in Warsaw, where Belarusian and Russian opposition groups are actively working on liberating their own nations. Poles have experience with the government-in-exile model as well. During World War II, it was based in London.

There would be a potential danger of having two governments in conflict with one another – one in exile and one in occupied Ukraine. During World War II, the Polish government-in-exile often clashed with authorities in Nazi-occupied Poland.

Russia could use Ukrainians against Poland

I know there’s been much talk that Russia couldn’t possibly keep Ukraine because Ukrainians would sabotage whatever the Russian occupier threw at them. Yes, Ukrainians are brave and their resistance is admirable, but Russians have a lot of experience of enslaving, exploiting and exterminating entire nations under the guise of liberation.

When a Russian sets his mind on exterminating Ukrainians, history shows that he won’t stop until all Ukrainians are either dead or enslaved.

With Western support blocked, Ukraine risks devolving into a nation of partisans with different agendas and allegiances. Russia could then claim that Poland is preparing an attack on Ukraine to reclaim its Ukrainian lands.

Expect a group of Russians, or Ukrainian prisoners of war posing as Poles, to shell a city such as Lviv. Russia won’t care when the world sees through its false flag lies. The excuse to attack Poland is there.

Russia loves nuclear terror

Constantly threatening to target Ukrainian nuclear power plants to keep Ukrainians under control is a likely strategy as well.

Russia could blow one up as a demonstration to show that Ukraine could be destroyed as a state at any moment if all the nuclear power plants were to be targeted at once. Russia’s message: “Either submit, or Ukraine is a radioactive wasteland.”

Cultural repositories

Taiwan is known for having protocols in place in case cultural treasures need to be hidden or protected from Chinese Communist Party invaders. Ukraine should ensure its cultural heritage is well-protected as well. Russians are known to claim the culture of others as their own.

Influential supporters

Ignacy Paderewski was a Polish pianist whose influence on US President Woodrow Wilson helped secure the re-emergence of the Polish state in 1918, after 123 years of non-existence. The Polish diaspora in the US, including up to 10 million Americans of Polish heritage, are a potent force ensuring that Polish interests aren’t forgotten, sidelined or ignored.

Ukraine needs a global voice. Influential foreigners are mercurial. They support Ukraine today and could change their minds tomorrow. That’s why newspapers in English, such as Kyiv Post, are vital.

Investment can wait

In our scenario, investing in Ukraine isn’t an option. Russia needs to be put in its place first. I’m sure there are some callous Westerners willing to invest in Russia-occupied Ukraine, but – for the most part – Westerners wouldn’t want to invest in Ukraine under Russian control. China, Iran and North Korea, on the other hand, would be delighted to invest in occupied Ukraine.

Russia would do whatever it can to distance Ukraine from the West and investment by authoritarian regimes would be one such strategy.

Seeking out talent

Language teachers, financial supporters, engineers, soldiers, even spies – the list is long. There are millions of people across the world who want to help Ukraine but don’t know how. If Ukraine were to be occupied by Russia, it would need every voice, every skillset, every human resource to help Ukrainians get through this terrible time.

There is a lot of anger at Russia out there. Let’s tap into that anger and channel it effectively.

Hit squads

Russians are proud of their death squads, tracking down traitors and other undesirable elements, in Russia and abroad. Ukrainians targeting Russian criminals is only logical. Russians cannot commit genocide in the middle of Europe with impunity.

Ukraine is in a state of war and can legitimately use any means necessary to defend itself, including assassinations of Russian criminals.

A Russian psychiatric patient posing as a philosopher said that genocide in Ukraine is nothing personal. To justify Russian genocide in Ukraine, this individual quoted Polish-American political scientist, Zbigniew Brzeziński. The prominent analyst said that Russia cannot be an empire without Ukraine. Had he still been alive, Brzeziński would have been furious to see some rabid Russian quasi-philosopher twisting his words to justify genocide.

The duo from hell

If Donald Trump wins the forthcoming US presidential election, could any new legislation preventing a president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO really make a difference? He could simply refuse to go to another country’s defense or proclaim that the US nuclear umbrella no longer extends to Europe. At that point, Poland, Sweden, Finland and the Baltics would be extremely vulnerable to Russian attack.

Russia wouldn’t then need to resort to nuclear weapons when a conventional military strike would be enough to conquer a severely weakened eastern flank of NATO.

Could appealing to Trump’s ego as the man who broke Russia change his mind about appeasing Russia? No chance. Trump likes Russian President Vladmir Putin too much to humiliate him like that.

Add to the mix Tucker Carlson as Trump’s vice president and we can expect Russian propagandists prancing around the White House. No, I’m not kidding. Trump-Tucker is the duo from hell.

Russian obsession

Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma suggested that Putin may be obsessed with Ukraine due to a mental health condition. The same could be said about his obsession with Poland. Putin says a lot of things, but his written word offers the most accurate insight into his mind. The Russian leader mentioned Poland 29 times in his article ‘’On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.’’ Mentioning Poland this many times in his article points to Putin’s fixation on Poland.

Putin is obsessed with getting the former Russian Empire lands back and he is willing to sacrifice all Russian resources to turn his maniacal dream into reality. Yes, that potentially includes limited use of nuclear weapons to bring Ukraine to its knees.

Scaremongering? Bluffing? Maybe that’s the idea. Get your enemies so accustomed to nuclear threats that they won’t take your nuclear launch preparations seriously.

Putin likely believes that NATO won’t respond to limited nuclear use unless – in his mind - real NATO nations (Germany, France, the UK and the US) are targeted. Sadly, he could be right.

And, if we let Ukraine fall, the Z-soldiers coming to kill and emasculate us on NATO lands aren’t going to be just Russians, but russified Ukrainians as well. Russians seem to take perverse pleasure in turning their enemies into so-called allies.

The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post