According to Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian missiles and drones have hit 11,879 facilities in Ukraine since Feb. 22, 2022, the majority of which were civilian. Since the start of the full-scale war, it has launched 9,590 missiles and 13,997 drones. Ukraine has only managed to down 2,429 (25.3 percent) missiles and 5,972 (42.7 percent) drones.
The statistics do not include the 3,200-3,500 guided glide bombs Russia drops against cities, villages, infrastructure and frontline positions every month.
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A staggering 6,203 civilian facilities have been hit by the missiles and drones. The devastation caused by guided glide bombs is even more massive. Russia uses bombs, artillery and MLRS to raze villages and cities to the ground to advance against fierce Ukrainian resistance. One only needs to watch satellite images of the cities of Soledar, Bakhmut and Avdiivka to understand the scale of destruction.
As of January 2024, Russia had inflicted more than $155 billion worth of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure, most of which are illegal targets (e.g. housing, energy, agriculture, education, health care, culture and sport). This includes around 250,000 apartments and houses, 3,800 educational institutions, and 1,300 healthcare institutions. In December 2023, the World Bank assessed the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine to a staggering $486 billion. Eight months later, both the scale of destruction and the cost of recovery are far higher.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 21, 2024
Ukraine’s energy sector alone has suffered $16 billion in direct physical destruction. It has lost half of its power generation capacity (9 GW) as a result of Russian strikes. European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, recently stressed that “The coming winter will likely test the resilience of the Ukrainian people in a way that has not been seen on our continent since World War II,” Russia is destroying backup generators, heating stations, storage facilities, and power plants, which “has turned reconstruction into a Sisyphean task… The lack of electricity means no access to basic services: water pumps and sewerage networks will not work, and heating may be cut off. She warned that some places in Ukraine could become uninhabitable during the winter frosts.”
Handcuffs are still on
Still, Ukraine is not permitted to use Western-made weapons to destroy the aircraft and missile launchers in Russia causing devastation.
Western limitations must be seen in context with Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian missiles and guided glide bombs.
Ukraine is ill-prepared to defend itself against ballistic missiles (Iskander, Tochka-U and KN-23) or missiles with a ballistic flight (S-300/S-400) because of their trajectory, speed, radar signature and in some cases, maneuverability during their final approach.
Of the 9,590 missiles Russia has launched against Ukraine, 4,396 (45.8 percent) are launched from within the range of US, German, French and UK-produced missiles donated to Ukraine. Of the 4,396 missiles, only 81 have been shot down.
Patriot is the only missile defense system capable of downing the missiles. Ukraine has, however, only received a fraction of the 25 Patriot Air and Missile Defense Systems it has repeatedly and urgently asked for. It has not even received the 7 to 11 Patriots Ukraine needs as a minimum to protect its cities.
As a result, Ukraine has only been able to shoot down between 4.47 percent of the ballistic missiles and 0.63 percent of the S-300/S-400 air defense missiles (used in secondary mode against ground targets). Consequently, a staggering 3,196 residential buildings, health institutions, schools, energy infrastructure, civilian industry, etc. have been struck.
Ukraine is facing an even worse problem meeting an increasing bomb threat. Once launched, there are no effective countermeasures against the guided glide bombs. The only way to stop the around 38,000-42,000 bombs that are dropped yearly is to destroy the aircraft carrying them.
Lacking the means to defend itself, it would make sense to destroy the “launch platform” on the ground before they can launch the missiles and bombs.
Ironic if not so tragic
Ironically, Ukraine has the means to destroy the missile launchers and aircraft on the ground but is refused to use them.
Western-made missiles would be able to target the 48 Iskander and numerous S-300/S-400 launchers deployed along the border. This is – or rather was – also the case of the fighter jets capable of delivering guided glide bombs deployed to Russian airfields. Western restrictions put key Russian air bases and capabilities out of range.
Ukraine had received long-range ATACMS missiles from the US and British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles from the UK, France and Italy. Despite repeated requests, Chancellor Olaf Scholz refuses to donate or export the German Taurus missile, arguing that Germany “will not become a party to the war, neither directly nor indirectly.”
His argument bears close resemblance to those of his US, UK, French and Italian counterparts when imposing limitations on Ukraine’s use of Western-made weapons. They all cite the risk of escalation and argue that they do not want to become a party to the war.
Ukraine has, however, repeatedly proven that the Russian so-called “red lines” are a fiction. More than anything, Ukraine’s use of Western-made weapons during the recent Kursk offensive has shown Russia’s red lines hollow.
Still, the West has imposed restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-produced weapons, creating “a vast sanctuary – territory in range of US-provided weapons but that Ukrainian forces are not allowed to strike with US- and European-provided weapons – which Russia exploits to shield its combat forces, command and control, logistics, and rear area support services” it uses to conduct military operations in Ukraine. US policy forbids Ukraine from using ATACMS anywhere in Russia. President Biden’s policy change in late May regarding the use of US-delivered weapons against military targets in Russia removed no more than 16 percent of Russia’s sanctuary.
Being unable or unwilling to provide Ukraine with the air defense it needs to protect the civilian population and its armed forces; the West should at least allow Ukraine to destroy the platforms delivering the missiles and bombs killing civilians and destroying Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.
In the words of Hanne Hopko (former lawmaker and Head of the Ukrainian Committee, 2014-2019) in Foreign Affairs:
“Crime of inaction is worse than crimes of aggression. When you know you can help and save lives but don’t do this… or deliberately delay with decisions. Moral decadence or degradation… this is how evil prevails.”
According to the UN, Russia’s war of aggression has inflicted immense suffering that will echo through generations. The West has the means to end it. Allowing Ukraine to strike legal targets deep inside Russia is a first, crucial step.
The argument that Ukrainian strikes inside Russia will trigger an escalation of the war has repeatedly been proven irrelevant. An attuned moral compass and a bit of courage are the only remaining hurdles.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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