In 2022, Europe experienced its biggest migration crisis since World War 2. By May 2023, nearly 8.2 million Ukrainian refugees were recorded across Europe. As of Sept. 24, 2024, 6.15 million remain displaced. The costs and challenges are massive and increasingly more countries are debating how to cut the inflow of refugees.
Norway is one notable example because it is one of the wealthiest countries in Europe and one of the few that has benefited economically from the war. Still, it has for domestic reasons decided to reduce its support to Ukrainian citizens seeking protection from the war.
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On Sept. 27, the Norwegian government announced that Norway would grant collective protection to fewer Ukrainians. The new policy is a result of economic and political concerns. According to Minister of Justice and Public Security Emilie Mehl, several Ukrainian refugees have already been sent out of the country.
The Norwegian Directorate of Immigration states that Ukrainians would no longer be granted collective protection when they are from areas considered safe by the Norwegian authorities. These include Lviv, Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, and Rivne oblasts (western Ukraine).
The assessment starkly contrasts the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs travel advice: It “advises against all travel to Ukraine and encourages Norwegian citizens to leave the country.” All of Ukraine, including the Western parts, are deemed unsafe for Norwegians. Western Ukraine is, however, considered safe for Ukrainians. I believe this to be the definition of double standards.
Ukraine Must Join the Joint Expeditionary Force, and the UK Should Lead the Way
The problem
The new policy testifies to a fundamental lack of both situational awareness and integrity. Additionally, it seeks to “cure the symptoms, not the problem.”
Firstly, Ukraine is still at war and the outcome is not given. The situation in eastern Ukraine is grave and highly worrisome. Russian forces are slowly but persistently advancing. Russia shows no sign of ending the war or seeking negotiations in good faith. On June 14, President Putin announced preconditions for peace talks that are tantamount to a Ukrainian capitulation. A Russian victory would be dramatic for Europe.
In the words of Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy:“If Ukraine loses, we lose.”
“If Russia defeats Ukraine, it will have established the preconditions for great power status. Already the world’s biggest nuclear power, it will gain the economy, additional energy and commodities, technology, and human resources needed to achieve strategic parity with the US and China.”
A new refugee crisis would be only one of the many consequences of a Russian victory. More than ten million Ukrainians would potentially be seeking collective protection in Europe.
Secondly, Ukraine faces a winter with an enormous power deficit. The country has lost around 60% of its energy production since the full-scale war started and lacks 2.3 GW. In the worst case, Ukraine might experience up to 18 hours of blackout a day. Ukraine’s regional heating and natural gas infrastructure has also been attacked.
“Since 2022, 18 large combined heat and power (CHP) plants have been damaged or completely destroyed, along with more than 800 boiler houses,” the IEA stated. Ukraine’s ability to provide district heating to major cities is greatly reduced.
This is an extremely critical situation for a country where the winter season can last for up to six months and temperatures can drop as low as -20 °C.
The EU Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, has warned that some parts of Ukraine may become uninhabitable this winter and that the country may face a humanitarian disaster. “The coming winter will likely test the resilience of the Ukrainian people in a way that has not been seen on our continent since World War II,” she said.
Thirdly, Ukraine (and Europe) has faced the risk of a far bigger nuclear disaster than the 1986 Chornobyl disaster every single day since Feb. 24, 2022. Russia is waging war between Ukraine’s 15 nuclear reactors. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that “regular explosions, drone attacks, gunfire and repeated interruptions of external power supply, among other challenges, increase the risk of a nuclear accident.” Multiple overflights of missiles and drones close to the power plants have been recorded.
On April 15, the IAEA director told the UN Security Council that “reckless attacks” on Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia in eastern Ukraine “significantly increase the risk of a major nuclear accident.“
The IAEA’s work emphasizes seven essential pillars of nuclear safety. These are the physical integrity of nuclear facilities, the functionality of safety equipment, the ability to operate staff to act “free of undue pressure,” an off-site power supply, uninterrupted supply and transport chains, effective and widespread radiation monitoring with readiness in case of emergency, and reliable communications. Russia has violated all of these in the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.
As the Norwegian Government announced further restrictions for Ukrainian refugees, Ukraine’s President told the UN that “Russia is planning deeper attacks on his country’s nuclear power plants, warning of possible nuclear disaster.”
The threat must be considered credible as the nuclear reactors constitute the core of Ukraine’s remaining energy supply. A loss of one or more nuclear power plants will, in Russia’s view, would increase the likelihood of a Ukrainian capitulation.
Finally, the decision by the Norwegian Government demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the scale and scope of the war. While Western politicians have consistently portrayed the war as a “Russia-Ukraine war,” it has always been a confrontation between Russia and the West. It is reflected in its strategic documents; its stated aims and objectives; its threat description; its public statements and rhetoric; its ultimatums, its nuclear threats and not least its actions across Europe and the US. The West – not Ukraine – has been defined as Russia’s enemy.
The EU parliament has long acknowledged that the EU and its member states are exposed to a Russian Hybrid War. When European Heads of State, Defense Ministers and Chiefs of Defense argue that Russia will not stop at Ukraine’s western borders and see an increasing risk of a military conflict between NATO and Russia in 2 – 5 years, stressing that “the continent has entered a “pre-war era“ for the first time since World War II,” this must be seen as a growing realization that the war is far broader than just a “Russia-Ukraine war.” More so when we acknowledge that “there is a war going on in Ukraine for the future of the whole of Europe.”
The fact is that it is not only Ukraine that is under attack. The US and Europe are under assault. International law, rules-based international order, democracy, universal rights and human dignity are under attack. Ironically, Russia has been saying that all along. We just chose to ignore it.
War on NATO territory is no longer unthinkable because we have taken peace for granted and failed to invest in security and defense. We must recognize that what are Ukrainian refugees today may be Estonian, Lithuanian, Latvian, Polish, and Finnish refugees tomorrow.
Norway’s new policy on Ukrainian refugees is, unfortunately, not at all unique. Similar deliberations are presently taking place all over Europe. It might, however, set an example for other countries facing the same domestic problems.
The solution
No parts of Ukraine are “safe” from the consequences of war, lack of electricity and heating or a nuclear disaster.
If Europe wants to act according to its values and principles, it must develop a policy that both protects Ukrainians escaping the horror of war as well as manages the fall-out of the humanitarian disaster.
Russia’s war of aggression and Western inaction is slowly increasing Ukraine’s demographic problems. Ukraine needs the refugees to return. The great majority wanted to return in 2023 but the numbers are declining as the war continues.
Changing the policy on Ukrainian refugees will not stem the refugee flow because it does not solve the core problem. It will only make life for Ukrainians more miserable, undermine European credibility, and support Russia’s war efforts.
Ukraine is safeguarding European security. While Ukrainian men and women die protecting Europe, we are obliged to provide collective protection for their families.
The refugee crisis is, however, a consequence of the West’s failure to deter the war and stop it when deterrence failed. A NATO intervention or Ukrainian NATO membership is the only way to turn the flow of refugees, stop the destruction and suffering and start the restoration of Ukraine. The longer the war lasts, the higher the costs and consequences for all.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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