OPINION: Thinking Out Loud – Where We’re at, What’s at Stake, and What Ronald Would Have Said

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with European leaders in Brussels this week and urged them to continue to provide his country with the support it needs to stop the Russian aggressor, in the hope that the new administration of US President-elect Donald Trump in Washington will do the same.

He received assurances that Ukraine will not be abandoned, but…

We are caught in a holding pattern waiting to see what Trump will actually do when he takes office as president. It is therefore not surprising that Zelensky is seeking to clarify Ukraine’s position, needs and expectations.

Some European leaders are also trying to show Trump the realities and dangers from a European perspective, others are sitting it out, and a few – Hungary and Slovakia – are letting Moscow use them as a wedge to weaken and divide Europe and NATO.

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So where do we stand now that the uncertainty continues?

Trump is very egotistical, and he will not take kindly to being snubbed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he has presented as his friend with whom he can do business.

Trump has boasted that he would be able to reach an agreement with Putin within 24 hours and end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Now it looks like he will be lucky if he can get a “peace process” going in 24 days or more.

So far, Putin, while talking of readiness to negotiate, is not budging a centimeter on his basic maximalist position as regards taking Ukraine under his control.

He is trying to conquer as much Ukrainian territory as possible before there is a ceasefire and a freeze in the war and, as his ongoing attacks on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure with ballistic missiles and drones show, to bring the Ukrainians to their knees.

So, for Trump, it’s either the lure of a Nobel Peace Prize or the ignominy of being seen as a cynic who betrayed Ukraine and Europe and embraced a dictator and enemy of the West, like British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlin did in 1938 when he appeased Hitler.

And it’s pretty obvious that Trump would prefer to somehow get the whole thing over with rather than get the US, and Europe, embroiled in a protracted, costly, and dangerous war of attrition.

But for all his bravado, Trump is no wizard and has no magic wand. The interests of Ukraine, meaning also of Europe, must be taken into account and a possible Yalta-style deal that would give Russia control over part of the European continent must be rejected.

China, North Korea, Iran and Moscow’s anti-Western friends in the BRICS group are also waiting to see how the whole thing will play out. 

Trump has reclaimed the US presidency on the populist MAGA platform – Make America Great Again. He and his advisers need to be reminded again and again that Putin launched his war against Ukraine and Western values on a platform with a similar tenor – MRGA, i.e., Make Russia Great Again.

And as a former Republican president, Ronald Reagan, would have reminded him: “Donald, you are allowing Putin to restore the Evil Empire that the US and its allies struggled so hard to defeat and to generate a new anti-Western Cold War. The West’s victory back then was the moment when America, with the leadership it provided, proved itself truly great!”