Ukraine’s fresh offensive in Kursk has once again showcased its ability to defy expectations, highlighting Russia’s vulnerabilities even as potential peace talks under a Trump administration loom. As Trump prepares to take office, one key ally that must be brought into sharper focus is Germany.
Just before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Germany offered Ukraine 5,000 combat helmets as aid against a potential Moscow attack. Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, called the gesture “an absolute joke,” sarcastically adding: “What support are they going to send next? Pillows?” Nonetheless, Germany’s support for Ukraine has significantly evolved throughout the war, solidifying its role as one of Ukraine’s most crucial allies.
Then in November 2023, Germany unveiled new defense policy guidelines, marking its first major update in over a decade, as part of the “Zeitenwende” policy shift announced after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius highlighted Germany’s commitment to becoming the backbone of European defense, pledging to rebuild the military with a €100 billion fund and to meet NATO’s 2% GDP defense spending target by 2024.
Despite this ambitious plan, €28 billion (approximately $30 billion) is still required to address the defense funding shortfall. Moreover, Germany is anticipated to face further challenges starting in 2028, when the €100 billion ($107 billion) extra-budgetary fund, established in 2022 to strengthen the armed forces, is expected to be fully depleted.
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However, experts suggest it could take Germany nearly a century to rebuild the Bundeswehr’s military capacity to 2004 levels. If a ceasefire is achieved in Ukraine and Russia rebuilds its army to wage a wider European war in the future, Germany won’t be prepared to defend Europe. Germany as Europe’s largest economy should be at the forefront of protecting Europe against Russia.
It’s important to note that Germany has provided aid to Ukraine worth €37 billion (approximately $39.4 billion) in total and is the second-largest supplier of military equipment to Ukraine after the United States. However, there have already been discussions in Germany about limiting future aid to Ukraine, especially given the ongoing economic uncertainty in the country. Ukraine had long warned Germany about the risks of building energy dependence on Russia for oil and gas, cautioning that Moscow could weaponize energy supplies as a “geopolitical weapon.” But Germany did not listen and has been paying the price for its dependence on Russia.
While Germany has provided significant aid to Ukraine, it has also undermined Ukraine’s efforts in other ways. For instance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has continued to weaken the Western position by breaking Russia’s diplomatic isolation with a phone call to Vladimir Putin. This attempt to push for negotiations, handing Putin a symbolic victory. There were recent allegations that Scholz planned to meet with Putin.
Much like Biden, Germany was paralyzed by indecision throughout the war, particularly in its reluctance to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine. After intense pressure from allies, Germany eventually relented. However, due to the delays in aid from both Germany and other Western partners, Ukraine paid a heavy price, losing many soldiers as a result.
However, Germany’s greatest misstep has been its refusal to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine. While the US and UK have already permitted Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia in the Kursk region, Germany, under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has continued its refusal to send long-range missiles to Ukraine, including the Taurus.
The Taurus missile, with a range of 500 km, outperforms the 300 km range of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles. Unlike others, it doesn’t rely on satellite signals, instead using terrain-contour matching and precision radar for navigation, making it less vulnerable to jamming. Its long range also keeps pilots safer. Effective against command posts, logistics hubs, and even strategic targets like the Kerch Bridge, the Taurus functions as a true “bunker-buster,” capable of penetrating multiple layers of defense.
But Scholz has remained defiant in his refusal to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles. Pro-democracy activist and former world chess champion Garry Kasparov said: “Scholz is going to come out stronger against Trump’s blather than Russia’s actual invasion and annexation of European Ukraine. Maybe he’ll send Taurus missiles to Greenland.” Recent media reports also indicated that Scholz has also blocked more military aid for Ukraine.
In contrast, Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and, according to current polls, the likely next chancellor, has expressed willingness to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles. At present, Ukraine is also running out of long-range ballistic missiles and is in desperate need of replenishment. Once the West approved long-range strikes for Ukraine inside Russia, the promised Armageddon from Russia never materialized. Therefore, Germany has no excuse not to give Ukraine the Taurus missiles.
As Trump takes office on Jan. 20, providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles will strengthen Ukraine’s position in any potential peace talks. Supplying the missiles through Germany will not undermine Trump’s efforts to pressure Russia into negotiations. Additionally, if Ukraine can use these missiles effectively, it could encourage Russia to accelerate its participation in peace talks.
For now, Russia has rejected the floated peace plans from the Trump team because Russia believes it has the upper hand and can still win on the battlefield. The West must focus on ensuring Ukraine negotiates from a position of strength. A key aspect of achieving this will be Trump’s administration renewing pressure on Germany to provide Ukraine with as many long-range missiles as possible.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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