There comes a point, in democratic nations, when administrations are swept away, and we get to find out whether weakness on some great global matter of importance was really about government or instead some deeper deficit within the nation itself.
The last three years have seen a parade of lethargy and lack of resolve in the democratic world, let’s be honest. It is certainly true that Ukraine has been provided with substantial military and financial support; one should not be ungracious. But there is no such thing as semi-victory.
JOIN US ON TELEGRAM
Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.
In a battle of survival, a nation either comes out victorious or is subjugated into slavery. The vigor with which one’s allies rose to that challenge and the corresponding result is how history judges you. The pages of posterity are not interested in a good intention that didn’t work out.
The West’s ‘half-hearted’ support for Kyiv
It’s been easy to find excuses for the half-hearted, semi-nervous defense of Ukraine. In the case of the US, one can put it down to the diffidence of the Biden administration. Washington’s support was governed by policy of escalation management and underpinning that, a lack of the articulation of a strategy for the end point and the type of world we wish to defend.
In Europe, one might point out the same behavior from Germany under Olaf Scholz, and a still far-too-slow realization of the dangers that lurk ahead if a European war should erupt across the continent.
Azerbaijan Opens War Crimes Trial of Armenian Separatists
Will there be a change under Trump?
For the US, the Biden excuse will soon be over. A new administration will start its work, and we will get to see whether the US truly has what it takes to defend the cause of the free, or whether a continuation of appeasement to authoritarianism demonstrates a fundamental weakness in the heart of America.
The omens have been mixed. On the plus side, Trump seems to have a little more chutzpah and boldness than Biden, however distracted he sometimes looks. What is not certain is whether his Ukrainian moral compass can stop flickering around and point resolutely and reliably the way ahead without being influenced by the knocks and attractive fields of those around him.
On the negative side of the balance sheet, when the US backed off from the Ukrainian battlefield last year, mired in arguments about border walls, it was Republicans who led that charge.
There remains a curious lack of seriousness and focus. Some may find Trump’s suggestion of annexing Greenland and making Canada the 51st US state amusing, but they provide moral cover for autocrats truly involved in imperial land grabs.
Even if it was in complete jest, to be discussing the assimilation of Greenland, and toying with the idea of using military force, at a time when the democratic world needs to be unambiguous in its position about the principles of territorial integrity suggests a lack of mental clarity.
The signs are not good
There are disappointing signs on the internet. It’s always surprising to see that it is primarily American conservatives who go so far as to mock a leader who is defending his nation and his people from destruction. Some prominent personalities take a childish enjoyment in posting shameful memes belittling Zelensky and Ukraine. It’s not funny, clever, or entertaining - it’s plain cowardice.
That a full three years into this war, after the murder of tens of thousands of Ukrainians, the destruction and erasure of countless cities, towns and settlements from the face of the Earth, the bombardment of homes and hospitals, there are people who need to watch a three-hour podcast with Lex Fridman so they can scratch their heads and decide whether defending Ukrainians makes sense is a damning indictment.
Does liberty need avowed enemies with friends like these?
Should we “wait, and see?”
Some people say that we should not judge too early. We should wait and see. But even that is a statement of feebleness. After these three years, one should not have to “wait” to see whether a nation will come through or not. Any nation worthy of the free should have intentions that are as clear as day.
The chips are down, and in 2025, the question of whether America will stand with its purported allies will be unavoidably expanded beyond Biden to the country as a whole. In this test, history itself will make its own judgement. 2025 is a big year for the US, its purposes and character.
The same applies in Europe. Germany is a geographically and financially central nation to Europe, but it has been far too easy to blame Scholz as some sort of spanner in the works who has brought the whole European machinery to a slow labored pace. This year there is opportunity to change.
A glimmer of hope
Will Europe awake to the risk of appeasement? Will it continue with a lack of determined coordination in both support for Ukraine and the mobilization of its general resources of materials in case of wider conflict?
Poland, Finland and the Baltic States have shown a single-minded resolve in articulating and expressing their concerns of what may lie ahead if Russia’s troops should succeed in Ukraine. But on their side are the utter horrors of twentieth century experience. They know what’s coming.
One matter on which one must surely find agreement with Trump is that Europe should increase its levels of defense expenditure. Much of the continent has allowed itself to settle into a languid Cold War assumption of continued US benevolence and largesse. If not into a war economy, Europe should at least posture itself into a semi-war economy, a state of competent defense.
Imperialism could be contagious
The most disastrous consequence of our current path, a matter that has been pointed out countless times in the last years, but seems to fall eternally on deaf ears, is that other nations and blocs are calibrating their willingness to engage in imperial stratagems and military conquest based on the West’s support for Ukraine and a willingness to counter an ever-growing alliance of autocracies.
So far, the West has sent out a crystal-clear signal that it is reluctant to defend the values it claims to champion. Even brigades of North Korean soldiers fighting on European land seem only to elicit circuitous statements of concern.
When faced with bared teeth, the West prevaricates, worries, hedges and ducks. This can only lead to an encouragement of the autocratic impulse to use war as a distraction from domestic failures. In this spiral of hesitation, our worst fears about war become self-fulfilling.
2025 isn’t just another year
To conclude, as others have noted, 2025 isn’t just another year. The shifting sands of political alliances and changing governments may seem to presage instability just when we don’t need it, but these transformations offer an opportunity to re-charge the energy to advance the democratic way of life.
This year we will get some hard truths. Not least, we are going to find out whether the nations that claim to be the defenders of democracy are what they say they are, or whether, like ancient Athens and the Roman Republic, they will join the long list of states that have cried liberty but ultimately failed the historic test in its defense.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Charles Cockell is Professor of Astrobiology at the University of Edinburgh.
You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter
