As the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches its three-year anniversary this month, many international observers are anxious to see what will unfold. Throughout the war, tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed by Russian forces. Numerous cities and villages have been razed to the ground, and a quarter of Ukraine’s population remains displaced.
Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Russians have sustained nearly 850,000 casualties. Tens of billions of dollars of Russian military equipment have been destroyed, and the Russian Federation has lost hundreds of billions of dollars due to international sanctions. Despite these heavy losses, the war has continued at Russia’s command.
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Given the significant death and destruction caused by Russia’s brutal and unnecessary war, several international figures are calling for forced peace negotiations. Others have stated that aid to Ukraine is too expensive, and are urging the international community to scale back additional assistance to the country. They argue that the war is taking too long and must end. For example, in the US, President Donald Trump and his administration have frozen future aid to Ukraine, which will only put additional pressure on the UK and the EU to do the same. These events have further fueled populist and far-right movements in Europe, where several of these leaders have called for the easing of Ukrainian assistance.
Trump, Zelensky, Putin and Peace Plan Talks
While Ukraine is doing everything it can to survive, and while Ukrainian forces have done well to fight off the Russian invasion, many critics have now become impatient. This is especially the case in Europe, where Hungary and Slovakia are the biggest critics of EU assistance to Ukraine.
Orbán and Fico
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has criticized the supply of aid to Ukraine. He has argued that the EU must focus on itself first before providing billions of euros in such external assistance. In addition, he previously stalled EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and blocked various assistance packages.
These types of delays have prevented the Ukrainians from receiving the vital aid they needed to defend themselves. The stalled negotiations for future aid also provided the Russians with opportunities to regroup and re-strategize on the battlefield. Finally, Orbán has broken EU protocol by speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This has put the EU and Ukraine at risk.
Unfortunately, Orbán is not alone in this criticism. Following the 2023 Slovakian elections, Robert Fico became the new prime minister. Throughout his tenure, Fico has argued that EU aid to Ukraine is expensive. More recently, he threatened to withhold additional assistance to Ukraine as he believes it should be forced into peace negotiations with Russia. Finally, like Orbán, Fico has spoken with Putin about the Russian invasion.
These actions by Orbán and Fico are problematic for both the European institution as well as Ukraine. First, while the European coalition remains united in opposition against the Russian invasion, Orbán and Fico are undermining EU efforts by meeting with Putin. Second, Orbán and Fico have caused issues for aid to Ukraine. For Ukraine to receive additional assistance from the EU collective, all 27 members must vote together to pass proposed aid deals. If a country opts to veto the proposal, then the aid is halted. The members of the EU states must gather to resolve their differences before a new proposal is presented and voted on by the member states. This process takes time, something which favors the Russians.
Nationalist fervor
These events are no accident. According to a Pew Research Center study, European confidence in President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine has declined. Many Europeans are critical of the war, and they are skeptical of Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Some have even questioned if Ukraine can win. In other words, it appears that nationalist movements are on the rise across Europe. This was most apparent in 2024 when several European countries held local and national elections.
According to the International Bar Association, seven EU member states saw far-right parties win their respective elections in 2024. The ruling parties in Croatia, Czechia, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia are now headed by far-right movements. In addition, far-right groups made advances during the European Parliament’s elections last summer. These results suggest that there is a shift in public opinion and stances in Europe as several members of these parties within these countries have questioned the roles of NATO and the EU, and they have been critical of aid to Ukraine.
These results could also forecast what may come in 2025. While Hungary and Slovakia have been most critical of aid to Ukraine, others are starting to follow suit. For example, newly re-elected Croatian President Zoran Milanović has pushed for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. He has also previously blamed the West and Ukraine for not upholding peace agreements during the first Russian invasion in 2014.
Meanwhile, in 2024, Geert Wilders and his far-right group won the general election in the Netherlands. Wilders had previously criticized aid to Ukraine, and he opposed signing a security agreement with the Ukrainians.
Given these trends, Europeans and Ukrainians will be anxious to see how various elections unfold across the European continent. Several far-right groups are running in numerous elections across Europe in 2025. Many of the candidates from these parties are also critical of EU and aid to Ukraine.
Upcoming elections and potentially serious consequences
Albania, Czechia, Kosovo, Moldova, and Norway all have parliamentary elections this year. Meanwhile, Austria and Germany will hold state elections. Finally, Greece, Ireland, Poland, and Romania will hold presidential elections.
Depending on the outcome of these elections, the political landscape across Europe could drastically change. Many of these far-right politicians are looking to turn inward as they are critical of the EU. These candidates have touched on the rising costs of essential goods and necessities, rising inflation, and higher energy costs. They have blamed the EU for several of these issues, and several far-right candidates running this year have argued that their countries should be more concerned about domestic issues rather than greater geopolitical matters such as continued EU cooperation or Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
In other words, the 2025 elections across Europe will have grave consequences. The outcomes of the electoral process in these countries on the European continent will not only impact Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia on the battlefield, but it will also question the EU’s role as an institution.
The results of numerous elections across Europe in 2024 shook the status quo, and there are indicators that far-right groups could make further gains in 2025. Should they succeed, it is possible that future aid to Ukraine may dwindle, and more European countries would be in favor of forcing Ukraine into negotiations with Russia.
This would indirectly reward the Russian Federation for its invasion of Ukraine, and it would spell future trouble for Europe as the Russians will believe that they can perform acts of aggression against neighboring states without consequence. This will mainly be an issue for the EU member states that are either near or border the Russian Federation. In addition, several of these countries may opt to shift inward as they distance themselves from the EU. This would only lead to greater frictions between member states, something that would also benefit Russia.
In short, the future of Europe is at stake. Time will tell how these elections unfold.
Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
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