It is easy to portray US President Donald Trump’s demand for a minerals deal as a cynical effort to take advantage of the victim of aggression when he has no other choice. The reality, however, is far more complex, and a deal between the US and Ukraine could offer significant benefits for Ukraine.
At the moment, Ukraine is sitting on vast reserves of untapped natural resources wealth. A good portion is in territory occupied by Russia and thus inaccessible to Ukraine; the rest, while in unoccupied territory, is not likely to be developed successfully until there is an end to Russia’s attacks against Ukraine. So, while the potential valuation of such reserves is extraordinary, it has little present value because of the war and would have no value if Ukraine were to be defeated.
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The Ukrainian people, armed forces, and defense industry have done a truly extraordinary job holding back Russia’s aggression, developing cutting edge technologies, and taking the fight to Russia itself. Without their courage, determination, and sacrifice, Ukraine would not have made it to where it is today.
Combined with massive Western military and financial assistance to Ukraine, international sanctions on Russia, and the pressure on Russia’s economy and state budget, Russia is in a slowly weakening position. But it is not weakening fast enough for Ukraine to seize a decisive advantage.
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Despite all the progress it has made, Ukraine will continue to need massive Western military and financial support for a long time to come. For Western countries to keep up this level of support, such assistance needs to be politically and economically sustainable – a real test for democracies who regrettably (and despite the dangers Putin represents), do not see themselves at war.
Enter Donald Trump and his proposed resources deal. His entire political compact with the American people is to conserve taxpayer resources and to focus on “America First.” With American voters having now returned Trump to the White House and put Republicans in the majority in the Senate and (narrowly) the House, it has become politically unsustainable in the United States to continue to provide massive amounts of military aid to Ukraine using taxpayer resources.
However, providing military support that would be paid for out of Ukraine’s future peacetime earnings would be politically sustainable. It would allow Donald Trump to completely change the domestic political narrative, making the case that Ukraine is paying its way, rather than receiving U.S. taxpayer donations.
Paying back US military assistance already provided is a bitter pill, but Trump would see it as fair to the American people. Using future earnings to pay for military assistance would be seen as a business transaction that benefits both sides – and President Trump is nothing if not transactional.
Most importantly, such an arrangement would give the United States a vested interest in ending the war in such a way that Ukraine, as a sovereign, independent state, is able to access and exploit its natural resources.
America’s political, moral, and security interests are already aligned with Ukraine’s; this would align American and Ukrainian economic interests as well. It may not be a formal security guarantee for Ukraine, but it gives the United States a direct interest in Ukrainian security now and in the future. It would allow President Trump to tell Vladimir Putin to stop attacking Ukrainian infrastructure because the United States has a vested interest, with Ukraine as a strategic partner.
The first draft of such a US-Ukraine resources deal, presented by Treasury Secretary Bessent, was seriously flawed. Since then, new drafts have been discussed.
Based on some of his first statements in office, President Trump seems to understand that Russia is in a weak position and that continued economic and military pressure can get Putin to end the war. Ukraine needs the United States to continue or even increase this pressure, and a resources deal provides an incentive, and a politically sustainable pathway to accomplish this.
In the heat of the moment – and especially against the backdrop of President Trump’s insulting tweet accusing President Zelensky of being a dictator and saying that Ukraine started the war – such a deal simply feels unfair. But putting emotions aside, it can actually offer significant and sustainable benefits for Ukraine. At this stage, it may be best to conclude a deal as soon as possible, celebrate it when President Zelensky visits Washington, and get on with the business of ending the war, aligning US and Ukrainian interests, and building a peaceful, prosperous, European Ukraine.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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