OPINION: The Time Has Come for the US to Put Russia in Check

Last Tuesday Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff met with their Russian counterparts – Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov – in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia to begin bilateral discussions to bring the war in Ukraine to an end.

According to Rubio, the outcome of the initial meeting, which was really more of a condition setter for follow-on meetings, was the following:

• Establish a consultation mechanism to address irritants to our bilateral relationship with the objective of taking steps necessary to normalize the operation of our respective diplomatic missions.
• Appoint respective high-level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible in a way that is enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides.
• Lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine.
• The parties to today’s meetings pledge to remain engaged to make sure the process moves forward in a timely and productive manner.

Fair enough but neither the interests of Ukraine nor Europe appear to be part of the equation. Rubio later commented that “the US will be ready to engage Kyiv and European partners in the settlement process at later stages.”

Translation: this is more about an America First agenda than directly addressing Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.

Rubio’s assertion that “future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities” sounds more like President Obama’s Russia reset, invoking images of then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Lavrov pushing the red Staples ‘reset’ ‘easy’ button.

A business deal. But in order to get the deal done, the war has to stop, and Ukraine seems to be in the way.

As the saying goes, “want it bad, get it bad,” and that seems to be the path Team Trump is heading down. But in order to get Russia to the negotiation table, it would seem that the U.S. will have to ‘bend a knee’ to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands – and that does not fare well for Ukraine or Europe.

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Putin’s demands?

Ukraine must officially give up “its pursuit of NATO membership” and “agree not to enter into any military alliances with Western powers. Kyiv is also expected to accept extensive limitations on the size of its armed forces and on the kinds of weapons systems it is allowed to possess.”

The Kremlin is also insisting that Ukraine hold presidential elections. A talking point even Trump and US Vice President JD Vance have parroted.

There is more.

The day before the bilateral talks, Lavrov ruled out territorial concessions to Ukraine, meaning Russia would retain, occupied or not, all of the four illegally and partially occupied annexed oblasts in September 2022 – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – and Crimea in March 2014. Though not stated but clearly implied, the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian military forces in Kursk Oblast too.

Then additional concessions were brought forward during the bilateral meeting. Lavrov told Rubio, “Moscow would not accept the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine, whatever flag they were under,” adding, “of course, this is unacceptable.” He also said there was “high interest” in lifting economic barriers between the US and Russia.

Moscow’s conditions are clearly in conflict with Rubio’s second stated condition setter: “ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible in a way that is enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides.”

Nothing mentioned above remotely comes close to meeting a threshold that would be acceptable to Ukraine.

That brings us to another expression, “can’t get there from here.”

Zelensky stated on NBC’s Meet the Press TV news show on Sunday that he “will never accept any decisions between the US and Russia about Ukraine” if Ukraine does not actively participate in those negotiations.

But what has Russia offered to concede?

Two things come to mind. Putin has said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can participate in the peace negotiations, but he cannot sign the documents because he is not the “legitimate” head of state. The other – Ukraine can become a member of the European Union.

No discussion at all on who will pay to rebuild Ukraine.

That’s it.

Team Trump is letting Putin dictate to Washington and Kyiv the terms to a peace deal all in the name of getting any deal done – good or bad – and crassly resuming bilateral relations and trade with Russia.

Never mind that Putin is a war criminal aggressively engaged in the genocide of the Ukrainian people. Or that he invaded Ukraine or that he repeatedly threatens nuclear war. Nor that under Putin, Russia has never honored a cease fire or peace plan.

And his military has been decimated to the point of hiring mercenaries, purchasing weapons, ammunition, and foreign fighters from Iran, North Korea, and Chechnya.

Ditto the Russian economy that is on the edge of collapsing as well. Yet here we are with President Trump wanting to extend a teetering Putin a lifeline.

They simply ignore this to get the deal done. That Trump is losing.

Let’s get real about what we are really seeing play out in Riyadh, Moscow and in purported secret meetings in Switzerland. Putin is setting conditions to destroy Ukraine.

As noted earlier in January by Serhii Kuzan in the Atlantic Council: “Putin’s peace plan is in fact a call for Kyiv’s complete capitulation. Moscow’s demands are deliberately designed to leave Ukraine internationally isolated and unable to defend itself.”

Kuzan further observed that, “if these terms are imposed on the Ukrainian authorities, there can be little doubt that Putin would use any subsequent pause in hostilities to rearm before renewing the war in the coming years.”

Trump needs to say no. Or Hillary Clinton, at least needs to insist that Lavrov return her red reset button.

Instead of “laying the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities” with a Putin-led Russia, why not with his successor instead?

Or better yet, arm Ukraine with the weapons they need to win the war.  It would be much cheaper than the cost of funding a frozen conflict in Eastern Europe for the next 50 years. Victory is within grasp. Trump just needs the intestinal fortitude to make it happen or risk history judging him as the ultimate ‘loser.’

But that requires a plan. One which the Biden Administration, NATO and Trump have failed to develop. It would also require commitment.

The plan needs to address three conditions. First – interdiction. Stop the flow of Russian forces, ammunition, weapons, and supplies into Ukraine. Ukraine has become very efficient in killing Russians. Stop the flow and the Russian military in Ukraine cannot sustain itself and it withers on the vine. Then the Ukrainian military can launch a successul counterattack to push Russia out of the country.

Second, prevent Russian attacks on civilian population centers and critical energy infrastructure. Boldly implement a no fly-zone – dictate to Russia, then enforce. We have seen first hand in Israel’s war with Iran that this is possible.

Trump must also enable Ukraine to get in front of the Russian response to battlefield defeats. Provide Kyiv with the necessary air defense systems to defend these areas, but more importantly, enable Ukraine to target the missile/drone/aircraft weapon systems, their launch sites, crews, radars, storage facilities and command and control centers in Russia.

In US military parlance, that is known as an active defense. It is also a foundation for being able to go on the offense.

Kursk is proof enough that if given the opening, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can do just that. If given the right combination of weapon systems and ammunition suites, the AFU can do that in the Donbas and Crimea as well.

Then third, enable Ukraine to continue to attack Russia’s ability to wage and finance the war. Ukraine has been very effective in targeting oil refineries, natural gas liquefaction plants, weapons and ammuntion production facilities. Together with sanctions – this is cripling the Russian economy.

Meanwhile, Washington must not cave on the negotiation front. The next round of “talks” between Team Rubio and Team Lavrov should begin with the US setting conditions for the end of the war: Russian forces will leave all of Ukraine.

It should include establishing a demilitarized zone along the 2014 borders. European forces from NATO countries must be forward deployed in Ukraine to secure the peace. Most importantly, a clear path for Ukraine’s accession into NATO must be established.

NATO is the only deterent Russia respects.

If not, all that will be accomplished is a rinse and repeat. Putin, or his successor, is highly likely to try again.

Ukraine and Europe’s long-term security – and by extension that of the US – exists only with the defeat of Russia in Ukraine. Do that and it will likely lead to regime change in Russia and perhaps even Putin standing trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity in an International in an International Criminal Court courtroom.

Copyright 2025. Jonathan E. Sweet and Mark C. Toth. All rights reserved.