OPINION: Death of Diplomacy

Within the space of a week, bookended by US President Donald Trump’s Feb. 12 phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Feb. 18 US-Russian kumbaya in Saudi Arabia, there was the annual Munich Security Conference. The week’s events pretty much ended the 80-year run of international world order as we have known it, threw NATO under a bus, and included the $500 billion shakedown by Trump to make Ukraine “compensate” the US for past and future aid.

Trump-approved multinationals should apparently be allowed to dig up Ukraine’s black earth for even rarer earth. And what about Ukraine’s almost unilateral effort to protect the US and Europe? Ridiculous, according to Trump, who is clearly of the view that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky owes him and sees no threat from his buddy Putin.

While kinder souls may be shocked at the recent turn of events, unkinder souls (such as I) wrote just two weeks ago that something like this would be coming. However, I will say that I expected the roll out to be closer to six months, not six days.

My next prediction – after the shock (Ukraine, Europe) and glee (Moscow) have passed, and all have recognized that this is no longer about diplomacy and avoiding cruelty, but precisely to use cruelty as a tool – the street fight will begin. Not between Trump and Zelensky, but between Putin and Zelensky. The orange-haired pretty boy from Forest Hills, Queens, will be left out in the cold.

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An official Chinese press release after the all said the two nations are “good neighbors that cannot be moved away” and vowed “long-term” developments.

Manipulations and machinations

Putin is a vicious bully in a suit who has survived by mastering manipulation. Zelensky is not mean, but he’s tough, smart, maybe more shrewd, almost certainly healthier, and younger than Putin. Unlike Putin and Trump, who both have the same goal, to be remembered by history as winners, Zelensky’s goal is to make sure Ukraine survives. While it does not seem like it now, Zelensky has the easier goal.

Putin’s goal of “winning” is to once and for all solidify the Russian empire. Zelensky’s goal of “winning” is to protect Ukraine. Therefore, there should be no promises of peace backed by shaky security guarantees. For Zelensky, a win means to witness the final and permanent destruction of the Russian empire. Nothing less.

Putin, and by extension Trump, want to save Russia. Trump is helping Putin because he really wants the title of peacemaker, therefore in his view, if Russia occupying Ukraine is the way to do it then so be it. Zelensky should drag out the process, exploit internal discontent in Russia, get in tight with the Europeans, keep the drone bombing, and not be rushed into “peace negotiations.”

Time is not on Putin’s side. Fully understanding and exploiting why Putin is rushing this effort to begin “peace negotiations” and/or a “ceasefire” is because Russia is militarily and economically at a precipice. Putin is not coming at this from a position of strength. Putin needs Trump to make him stronger.

Trump is driven by avarice, narcissistic delusion and vindictiveness. Mature adults find it difficult to comprehend Trump’s pettiness. Yet, there is little doubt that Trump still holds a grudge against Zelensky for not agreeing to conduct bogus corruption investigations into the Biden family. His almost bloodlust for vengeance against Zelensky, therefore Ukraine, is rooted in a July 2019 phone call that almost nobody remembers. Zelensky said “no” to Trump. Nobody says “no” to Trump without being at the receiving end of his retribution.

The soft spot in this situation is not the vulnerability of Ukraine, which will prevail, but the Putin-Trump relationship. Putin has studied Trump for years and does not give two hoots about any genuine partnership, either with Trump or with the US.

Putin’s mindset is about domination. Putin understands Trump’s immature impatience and believes Trump can be manipulated. If Craig Unger (author of “American Kompromat”) is to be believed even slightly, Russia has been manipulating Trump for decades, including no small number of Russian-mafia-financed business deals. Less salaciously than Unger, esteemed publications such as Washington Post (March 29, /2019), Foreign Policy (Dec 21, 2018) and Politico (May 22, 2016) have detailed the deep and longstanding Trump-Russian mafia relationship.

In turn, Trump thinks he is smarter than he actually is, and that he has a partner, if not necessarily a friend, in Putin. With Elon Musk by his side, he really is the bigger bully. Trump’s arrogance will lead him to believe that he is equal to, or even stronger than, Putin.

While Putin may be withholding some kind of dirt on Trump, using exposure and potential humiliation as leverage, Ukraine has nothing to lose. Trump already hates Zelensky and Ukraine. Focus on Trump’s weaknesses, brand him a sucker and a loser, naïve to Putin’s manipulations, or even as weakling, a Putin pawn – would thereby be to take one of Putin’s most powerful holds on Trump, his reputation, off the table. Zelensky, a trained comedian, has the chops to pull off deadpan sarcasm, the soul of mockery.

Mocking Trump, drone-bombing Russia, making Putin wait, and joining forces with Europe, may provide Ukraine with more than a fighting chance.

The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.