The newly elected US President, Donald Trump, declared Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator without elections” and deemed his role at the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiation table “unnecessary.” This, while Ukraine’s leader was in Ankara for a critical diplomatic meeting.
Throughout the three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ankara-Kyiv relations have never lost their significance with Turkey consistently playing a crucial role in this war.
JOIN US ON TELEGRAM
Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.
The military support Turkey provided to Ukrainian forces - most notably Bayraktar drones - changed the course of the war. Ukrainian prisoners of war were released through Ankara’s mediation. Even though the 2022 negotiations initiated under Turkey’s leadership - arguably the closest to bringing peace - ultimately failed due to the insistence of former US President Joe Biden, Ankara’s role was undeniable.
Similarly, the grain deal, which became a lifeline for Ukraine during the toughest days of pressure on Kyiv’s wartime economy, was brought to life with the signature of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Yet, Trump’s harsh rhetoric - expressed just before the US presidential election - effectively stabbed Ukraine in the back and further underscored the importance of the Zelenskyy-Erdoğan meeting. Kyiv no longer has its unconditional support from its Western allies. Neither the US nor a strong EU is in sight.
Life Hack: Ukraine’s Mobile Repair Workshops in Action
As with any prolonged conflict, Western leaders are doing what they do best: a lot of talk, little action.
Was the Erdoğan-Zelensky meeting really an emergency one?
The Erdoğan-Zelenskyy meeting was not really an unplanned emergency summit. The Ukrainian leader had planned to travel to Ankara immediately after the 61st Munich Security Conference, and his visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Discussions were set to cover various aspects of the strategic partnership between Ukraine and Turkey, including defense cooperation and regional security issues. However, it appears that Zelensky carried more than just routine diplomatic rhetoric in his briefcase - he wanted to position Turkey at the center of peace negotiations.
What would Ukraine gain by bringing Turkey to the table?
The US pivot towards a pro-Russian stance in the war has upended all existing calculations. At this point, Kyiv needs a player at the table who is respected by both sides yet not fully engaged on the battlefield. Could that player be Erdoğan - or more broadly, Ankara?
Turkish media and public opinion have described Ankara’s policy towards the war in its northern neighbor as “balanced.” At the same time as Erdoğan provided Ukraine with the Bayraktars that obliterated Russian positions on the battlefield, he maintained an open dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He managed to keep a calculated distance - or rather, no distance at all - with both parties. But how accurate is this assessment?
Turkey’s policy towards Ukraine both before and during the war has remained unchanged. Ankara has consistently defended Ukraine’s territorial integrity as a non-negotiable principle - and continues to do so. Turkey has also positioned itself as a protector of the Crimean Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group with deep historical and cultural ties to Turkey.
Turkey’s stance on Ukraine has never changed
In recent years - especially after it faced a bloody coup attempt on July 15, 2016 - the Western world has been eager to portray Ankara as a country “too close” to Moscow. During Trump’s first presidency, US Republicans were seriously discussing the possibility of expelling Turkey from NATO, publishing articles advocating for this move.
These narratives were, in part, shaped by disinformation campaigns in Washington and other Western capitals.
But look at where we are now. The very same Republicans who backed those arguments are now rallying behind Trump, who is blaming Zelensky - the leader of a nation under Russian occupation - for starting the war. It is crystal clear who is truly acting against the core principles of the Atlantic Treaty.
Let’s not forget those European Union (EU) leaders of so-called “freedom-loving” European states, who projected tough rhetoric against Russia. And even the White House, perceived globally as Moscow’s primary adversary throughout the war. Which of their empty speeches angered Russian leader Putin as much as the bombs dropped by Bayraktar drones?
And what about Syria? Over the years, as the world abandoned Syrian opposition forces and civilians to their fate, only Turkey remained standing behind them - while Russian bombs flattened cities. In nearly 14 years of civil war, the Assad regime was toppled at the very moment it felt strongest. No Russian soldiers remained, Putin’s posters disappeared from the walls. The Syrian people never saw such unwavering support from any Western or Arab nation.
How can Ankara shift the balance in peace talks?
Do not think that Putin is the only one aware of all these developments. Zelensky also understands that Turkey’s position will not change due to mere energy deals. In fact, he sees it as a support system he wants behind him. This is precisely why, at his loneliest moment, he needs one of NATO’s most powerful nations – Turkey - to be present during peace negotiations.
Today, Ukraine’s “Western friends” are abandoning Kyiv one by one. It is unclear how much of Ukraine Trump is willing to hand over to Putin in negotiations. Meanwhile, Germany has held a critical general election. The far-right and far-left factions, have both gained traction in the polls and are likely to influence future German policy. Some argue that Germany’s support for Ukraine with “unnecessary overconfidence” was a mistake - and should be stopped.
Their main justification? Germany’s dependence on Russian gas. In short, German state policy is blaming Ukraine for its own industrial and economic slowdown.
Kyiv can still count on vocal support from French President Emmanuel Macron - who is steadily weakening domestically and counting down his days in office. The so-called “Friends of Ukraine” summits in Paris, however, appear to have been be nothing more than empty rhetoric. Britain’s prime minister is also speaking up for Ukraine.
Given this bleak picture, Kyiv desperately needs Ankara to step into the game. Turkey maintains a balanced image between both sides but remains firm in refusing to negotiate Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This makes Turkey the perfect candidate. Moreover, Ankara has already put forward a solid peace roadmap:
- A 10-year moratorium on Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations
- The establishment of a demilitarized buffer zone in eastern Ukraine, monitored by international forces
- Continued military aid to Ukraine
Of course, it is difficult to say whether the Kremlin will accept this plan. But in any negotiation, you must present your cards as valuable and start with a strong hand. Convincing the parties to take the path to peace is impossible without first reminding them what they stand to lose.
Perhaps someone needs to explain this to Trump as well.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter
