After the extraordinary on-camera flare-up between beleaguered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the one hand and US President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance on the other, the future of US military and economic support for Ukraine is very much in doubt.
I, for one, am deeply ashamed of Trump and Vance for berating Zelensky and petulantly demanding that he thank the US for its past support even as they threatened to cut it off.
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Leaving aside, though, the bizarreness of what happened, the real question is: What now?
It seems to me that there are several possible scenarios:
1 – Zelensky backs down and begs Trump for forgiveness
Under this option, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin negotiate a peace agreement at Ukraine’s expense. Zelensky – like Eduard Benes of Czechoslovakia after the infamous 1938 Munich agreement – feels compelled to accept the Putin-Trump agreement due to his calculating that Ukraine can’t continue fighting Russia on its own.
In that Putin has not kept to the terms of other peace agreements he has made, it seems doubtful that he would abide by this one for long. If he does not, Trump will look weak and foolish. But even if Putin does keep his end of the bargain, Trump will look weak for having forced Ukraine to capitulate to Putin. Other US allies will no longer trust Trump. Some will try to band together without the US. Others may try to appease Putin.
Ukraine Eyes Future Without US Support After Trump Clash
2 – Trump ends US support for Ukraine
European and other Western governments continue their support. Ukraine will suffer from the continued fighting (as will Russia). If Europe can help Ukraine come to a decent settlement with Russia, European leaders will look like responsible statesmen while Trump will just appear irrelevant. If the war either continues or ends on terms unfavorable to Ukraine, European governments will be seen as having at least tried to help Ukraine while the Trump administration did not.
3 – European support proves too weak or even ends
If Ukraine cannot continue fighting, the war will not only end on terms highly unfavorable to it, but Europe will feel increasingly under threat from Russia and fearful that Trump will find an excuse to abandon America’s commitment to NATO, which he has often expressed hostility toward. The Trump administration will have earned the contempt of friend and foe alike.
4 – Russia defeats Ukraine and installs a puppet government
This won’t be the end of the story, as guerilla warfare is likely to ensue in Ukraine much as it did during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. And just as occurred back then, other countries will funnel arms and other support to Ukrainian guerillas who have already acquired combat experience during the past three years.
Putin may experience the same difficulties from an ongoing, endless insurgency that the Soviet leadership did in Afghanistan. If Trump arms the Ukrainian guerrillas, he will look foolish for having undermined Ukraine to begin with. If he does not arm the Ukrainian guerrillas, though, he is likely to be seen as completely unreliable by America’s now erstwhile allies – and probably by Putin too.
For now – uncertainty
I don’t know which of these scenarios will occur. There may be others still to emerge. But one thing is clear in each of the scenarios I have sketched out: Trump will look weak and US power and influence will decline.
It will be very difficult for Washington to rebuild lost trust in the US. Nor is this something that Trump or Vance are likely to be able to accomplish even if they belatedly try to do so. Nobody will thank them for this state of affairs, except possibly Putin.
Mark N. Katz is a professor emeritus at the George Mason University School of Policy and Government.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
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