I had this great plan for a fun three-year retrospective in which I would thank you guys for all your support and then go back to my predictions over the years and try and figure out how well I’ve been batting.
But events in the form of a big in-front-of-media argument between Donald J. Trump and Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelensky have clearly overtaken that idea. Everyone and their distant relative is weighing in on how that nasty exchange of views will influence the course of the war.
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Speaking of which – the war. Exactly three years ago today I was in a village about 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) south of the Russian army attempt to envelope Kyiv from the West.
My wife and daughter were spending most of their time in a cellar because shells and rockets were passing over our heads. The first good news we had was a column of Ukrainian troops in armored vehicles, trucks, buses, and cars driving north. It was 95th Air Assault Brigade – they were going into the line along the Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway. Honestly, the soldiers I could see looked pretty grim.
But I knew those guys from my time in Donbas. I didn’t know what the Russians would throw at them, but I was absolutely positive the 95th would fight, hard. A lot of Russians would have to die before they got to my wife and daughter. And yes, I was very aware the US national leadership was saying Ukraine was doomed and that Ukrainian defenses around Kyiv would collapse.
Kyiv Faces Patriot Missile Shortages If US Halts Military Aid, PM Shmyhal Warns
In a way I was betting my family’s future on the proposition that the Smart People in the Beltway were wrong and I knew the Ukrainians better than they did.
Our village is not so far from Bucha. It’s just as well I had no idea about the murdering and massacres the Russian troops were carrying out there at the time. But everything worked out.
If you want my read-out on the Trump-Zelensky press conference slug-fest, go to the bottom and find the part about J.D. Vance and Bucha. You will have to read a bit or skim.
As to the rest, 95th Brigade features in this review a bit higher up. There’s more good news than usual this week. The air assault guys out of Zhytomyr are part of it.
Count the (Russian) Bodies
OK, this factoid didn’t make the mainstream, but it’s exactly the kind of thing that I think needs to be flagged and watched closely.
As you might guess, the three-year-anniversary of Russia’s invasion was a big event in Ukraine. The government, among other activities, put together a big presentation with top government officials talking about the past three years and looking ahead to 2025. The overall message was “We’re still standing and we are cautiously optimistic.”
Even everyone’s favorite spymaster, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency HUR, Kyrylo Budanov was present. As always, Budanov kept his remarks pretty conservative and cryptic. But he dropped, almost in passing, the following: Ukrainian military intelligence has reliable information that the Russian Federation will reduce its army recruiting targets for 2025 by 100,000 men. For reference, in 2024, Russia says it recruited about 450,000 men. Budanov meme attached.
If HUR’s intelligence on Russian recruiting plans is accurate, then given casualty rates – and we have giant, masses of open source data on that – then the outcome is inevitable.
Provided they keep attacking and Ukrainian tactical effectiveness doesn’t deteriorate, the Russian manpower situation must degrade over the rest of the year.
If Ukrainian tactical effectiveness increases (for instance even more drones than now, which is the prediction), then that worsening of Russian fighting efficiency will take place even faster.
Here is a KP/Chuck Pfarrer review of the progress of Russian losses over the years, it lays out the numbers clearly:
Right now, the Russian army with perhaps 600,000 men in the field in Ukraine, is struggling to launch five company-sized attacks in a given day across a 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) front. Most of the time, it is a fraction of that and some days there’s none. Yesterday, across the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (the ZSU) counted 83 attacks of all types.
When the Russian army had its steam up, for instance during the assaults on Avdiivka, that figure was around 150 and sometimes reached 200.
Even worse for Russian offensive capacity, the Russian chain of command can’t manage more than small unit, foot infantry attacks. Those attacks depend on a steady supply of replacements. That replacement stream will be about 20% less on paper.
Since, in all armies, soldiers will find ways to avoid combat and sit in the rear if they possibly can, the actual bite on Russian frontline manpower will be worse. And that was before the recruitment cut.
There are only two possible outcomes. First, the Russians must attack even less. Second option, the Kremlin increases pressure on the army to force smaller numbers of available men to keep on attacking, increasingly against their will.
The way I see it, if this reduction in Russian manpower supply to the front takes place, then either the ZSU will fight the Russians to a total stand-still and gain the initiative in ground fighting, or, we are going to see Russian companies and even battalions collapsing or mutinying as they are forced to attack. Logically it’s inevitable. We might see it in late spring and chances would go up every day after that.
Since this is war, there really is no such thing as real inevitability, of course.
To be clear, this is not to imply I am expecting the 2nd Russian Revolution by Halloween. A best-case Ukraine/worst-case Russia scenario would be degradation of enough Russian units so that Ukraine could launch a successful counteroffensive and hand Russia a real operational defeat. That would not be a war-ender, but it would be a political and strategic disaster for Russia.
But a more reasonable, conservative expectation would be that at some point after spring, the Russian army will lose strategic initiative across the front. This will bring to an end Russian claims to their own population and the rest of the world that they are inexorably winning.
Sustaining a war if you are in an unwinnable quagmire is a lot harder than sustaining a war you can argue you are making progress in.
To repeat, this is based on a HUR/Budanov prediction. But they have an excellent record for accuracy.
95th Air Assault Brigade, the Battle of Kotlyne, and Counterattacks
For a possible window on how Ukrainian counterattacks in the future might look, based on what’s happening right now, you might check this article.
If you don’t want to read the article (or watch the video that’s embedded in the article) the simpler version is – courtesy of 95th Air Assault Brigade, we now have an excellent picture of how the ZSU would prefer to conduct a battalion-scale assault operation. I’ve attached a publicity pic from the brigade.
What happened was that the Russians took the village in January, and instead of just counterattacking immediately, the Ukrainians set up lines, launched drones, and started collecting information about where the Russians were – down to every building and fighting position.
Russians caught out in the open were attacked and sometimes injured or killed.
The road leading into the village, over which the Russians in the village received supplies and reinforcements, was patrolled day and night by drones. Anything spotted moving was attacked. This weakened the Russians in the village, both in terms of physical fighting capacity and morale.
After about three weeks, a couple of companies of assault infantry, at night (I assume after practicing the attack a couple of times, because I can’t see how it could have come off had they not practiced), approached the village, sighted in on the known Russian positions, and cut loose with everything they had. Then the infantry went in and cleared buildings one by one, using lots of grenades. Drones patrolled overhead.
A route for the Russians to escape was left open. This was not kindness, it was because that was the simplest way to get surviving Russians out into the open where the drones could hit them. One of the infantrymen tells an interviewer the whole op was pretty easy. There were Russian POWs.
None of these tactics is particularly original. There have been plenty of comments and reports, for years, that the view of troops on the ground is that ZSU attacks are quite possible but there needs to be prep work and strong planning.
This sort of thing is standard operating procedure (SOP) for the best-trained Ukrainian troops – the special ops soldiers.
This week a Special Operations Forces (SSO) raid in Kursk region ended when some Ukrainian operators broke into a command post (CP) occupied by soldiers and officers from 3rd Company, 419th Rgt, 19th Motor Rifle Division.
The Russians were sleeping. Some guys got their skulls blown open. There’s credible video but it’s graphic so find it yourself.
But for line combat brigades, it’s an indictment of the quality of the Ukrainian officer corps. This sort of operation should be second nature to properly trained troops. It is a bad sign that only after years of fighting do we get a video documenting “proper” combined arms tactics – and it’s not doctrine, it’s what an individual unit (albeit an excellent one) came up with.
But on the other hand, the efficient little counterattack happened and that wasn’t the only place.
This week the ZSU ran successful counterattacks, roughly of similar scale, in the Toretsk sector and the Chasiv Yar sector. It’s not all good news, there appear to have been land losses in Kursk and Pokrovsk region for sure, possibly elsewhere. My point is, a month ago it was just the Ukrainians on the back foot and losing ground. Now there is credible evidence of successful local counterattacks.
Here is a video of recon troops from 12th Brigade Azov taking a Russian prisoner during a counterattack. Toretsk. It’s best if you speak Russian. This is another strong unit and not representative of all ZSU formation. But again we have that disconnect – those of us looking closely at the fighting see much more even contacts than those far away.
Vulcanus Germanus Est, Et Malleolum Magnum Habet
As most of you know, Macron, Starmer and Zelensky all went to DC this week, plus the Russians and Americans met in Istanbul – and of course there was the properly shameful spectacle of the United State of America refusing, along with the likes of North Korea and Iran to sign on to a non-binding UN resolution identifying Russia, again, for the third year in a row, as an aggressor state that invaded Ukraine.
There was all manner of media Sturm und Drang about FDR spinning in his grave, and the Trump administration selling out the ideals of Lafayette and Lincoln. There was analysis about how Macron was maybe a Trump whisperer. There was all sorts of play about how Starmer and Trump seemed to be cheery in each other’s company.
If I only had a nickel for every time I read a report parsing Donald J. Trump’s position on NATO, or defense funding, or Ukraine, or national security priorities, or taking over sovereign pieces of Canada or Denmark…
But that wasn’t important, as in, stuff like that is geopolitical peanuts, and I hope you just scrolled on as fast as you could from stuff like that, like I did.
Because the geopolitical news this week is serious and historical. This week we saw Germany take its first real step towards a return to strategic dominance of the European continent, and along with that, probably the final note of Germany’s 80-year song that European security and war-making strategy must depend on others, but never on Germany.
I am referring of course to the victory of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in Sundays’ elections and a vote shake-out that seems to make the CDU’s top politician, a former BlackRock Germany board member, the inevitable next German Chancellor. He was a senior corporate lawyer and his client list reads like a who’s who of Germany’s Biggest Corporations.
Within 48 hours of the election, and way before coalition talks, Friedrich Merz said he would (1) make separating Germany from US strategic dependence a top priority (2) get more weapons to Ukraine faster, but it needs to be organized so Germany will “do its part” (which, in Europe, means that Germany will probably lead and certainly they will be the biggest money) (3) the big domestic priority is getting Germany Inc. (or is it GMBH?) back in business and (4) Russia is a direct security threat to Germany and Europe and must be treated as such.
The guy has been an Atlanticist and Go NATO! man for his entire political life and again, the dude worked for BlackRock for years, this is trans-Atlantic capital investment on a massive scale.
This same Merz is now talking like Charles De Gaulle (no image), and the only thing that is protecting the Trump administration from the embarrassment of realizing they are responsible for turning Europe’s biggest economy against them, is that surely they have never heard of Charles De Gaulle.
There was a time, many of us can remember it, when this would have been pilloried as those damn Germans returning to their Prussian traditions. But that was then. Now – and once again I am writing something I am having a little trouble believing I lived to see – German militarism is poised to make a comeback.
This is because Merz is going to assert himself against Trump. He (Merz) as a BlackRock corporate lawyer spent years deciding whether his company, a word-class institutional investor – should or should not finance big business projects, among them medium-scale real estate development.
There is every reason to believe the next German Chancellor will see Trump as an American real estate huckster who talks a lot but often fails to deliver profit. If I am any judge of backgrounds, Merz is going to intimidate Trump, because Trump’s entire business career comes down to doing tricky deals with iffy partners, because big institutional investors with lawyers like Merz wouldn’t give him the time of day.
They are known quantities to each other. They will pretend to like each other, but by professional background, they are natural enemies.
On March 6 there will be a big pan-European security conference which Zelensky will attend. One thing that you will see is Zelensky looking like the leader of the free world. Someone has already done a meme “Zelensky – The New Leader of the Free World.”
Definitely expect more of that. But also, get ready for massive support to Ukraine and European defense spending to be announced.
Another thing you will see, is Friedrich Merz. He will be there, wearing a conservatively tailored suit (I’m going out on a limb here and will bet dark blue) and speaking perfect English, and looking like he is backing into leadership of Europe. Nobody is going to state it openly. But when you see that, you will be watching Germany’s return to its traditional role as Europe’s leading state, and the continent’s armorer. Hence the image of Gustav Krupp, and you’re welcome I didn’t include Bertha.
Addition: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock just called for Europe to mobilize behind Ukraine, take America’s place, contain and turn back Russia. (I guess maybe she wants a job in the next government?)
Smaller Items
Down With Shaheds – Ukraine’s commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, in an interview, said that the Ukrainians have figured out a new way to take on Shahed drones, get a fast first-person view (FPV) into its patch and ram it. He claimed it works.
Russian Glider Bombs Diverted – Media on both sides is reporting the Ukrainians have figured out a way to fox the Russian glide bombs so that they miss – basically by improved GPS jamming as the bombs glide in. This requires good knowledge on the flight paths the bombs will take, but evidently, the Ukrainians have that. Russian milbloggers are saying that when it used to take one or two bombs to hit a building, now, what with the law of averages and the jamming, it takes eight or 16 bombs. Both sides are saying this won’t be a permanent fix and the tech will keep advancing.
Black Sea Air Activity – Based on open-source flight trackers, there has been a big spike by NATO over the past week. There is compelling evidence that the French Air Force is flying Mirages on reconnaissance missions towards Crimea, and there is less but still strong evidence one and maybe two recon flights flew the length of the Black Sea and approached the Kuban. Royal Air Force planes have been most prominent, then the French, Turks and Italians.
On Thursday or Friday a US B-52 made a posturing appearance over the Danube Delta, but otherwise all this flight activity seems completely non-US.
The Ukrainians put in a fairly effective drone strike against Crimea and Krasnodar regions on Wednesday. The targets were air defense and oil processing, and these NATO recon flights preceded those strikes daily, for three days. So evidence is pointing very strongly to continued NATO intelligence collection and development of targets for Ukrainian long-range strikes.
The implication is that either NATO is ignoring US movements towards Russia rapprochement, or, the Trump team is talking nice with Russia but continuing with the military pressure. Two screenies of planes zooming around over the Black Sea, per open sources. Obviously an image of the Buff.
The Trump People Made the President of Poland Wait 90 Minutes – On Feb. 23 the President of Poland (you know, the country whose ground force in east Europe is about eight times bigger than the US’s) was in DC waiting for his turn to appear next to Trump and the Trump team made Andrzej Duda wait in a room a full 90 minutes. No explanation, 15 minutes of face time, the White House door is that way. I doubt it was an intended insult but the Poles were furious. The point here is, it isn’t like the Trump people insult only Ukrainians.
Swiss Humor – This is just funny. Last weekend, when the ceasefire deal was still credited by the faithful, the Swiss Confederation announced that it too would be willing to participate in a peacekeeping force in Ukraine and was ready to contribute a full 200 soldiers. It is difficult to communicate how utterly ridiculous the proposition sounds, that 200 soldiers might have any effect at all on a 1,500+ kilometer (932+ mile) front. If you are inside a war, one of the continuing surprises is how clueless people at peace are about it. Colorful image of a Swiss Guardsman.
Dang Them Goal Posts Moved Yet Again – On Wednesday, Trump announced he wasn’t sure he could end the war by the end of the year, but he’d try. On Friday before the presser he said he hoped a deal was still possible, but he avoided mentioning time frames, and after the big blow-up, he said there can’t be a ceasefire because Zelensky is too hostile towards Putin.
It’s Saturday and I’m not bothering to find out what the current White House promise on the Ukraine ceasefire is, honestly, these people are starting to sound like Baghdad Bob. I have better things to do.
Defense Secretaries Unite – A bipartisan group of five former US Defense Department Secretaries – William Perry, Leon Panetta, Chuck Hagel, Jim Mattis and Lloyd Austin – published a letter to Congress demanding Congress investigate the Trump administration’s purges at the top of the Pentagon, particularly of guard-rail military judges that adjudicate the legality of the actions of service personnel. They argue the US military’s apolitical status and constitutional stability are at risk. Even if I didn’t have an opinion, I would say Congress had better follow that advice, because Mattis basically has never been wrong. There are thousands of Mattis memes and he is not a man I would want angry at me, so I went with a reverential image.
More Arms Production for and in Ukraine – This week Finland has announced that it will supply Ukraine with €660 million of new-production military equipment and coordinate with the Ukrainians for deliveries of future orders. Norways’ Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace announced plans to set up a NASMS missile plant in Ukraine. This is a premier medium-range anti-aircaft system. France said European security needs a strategic munitions reserve and munitions production reserve capacity, and the best way to get that is by pulling Ukrainian arms manufacturing into the supply chains.
Ammo Dump Hit, Big Boom – This week the Ukrainians found and destroyed a Russian ammo dump in Donetsk region near the village Selydove, it seems like the bunkers were crammed with TOS rockets, which are a big incendiary weapon the size of a telephone pole.
US Vice President J.D. Vance Denies a Very Bad Thing to Deny – For those of you who insist on my weighing in on the press conference fight between Trump and Zelensky, OK, here it is.
One piece of background was at the start – I am inclined to see Ukrainian troops as effective and a positive force, because when it came down to it I had an attractive wife and a 14-year-old daughter in a village about 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) from Bucha – 95th Air Assault Brigade was between my family and the Russians, and I am thrilled to say no Russian soldier touched those two brave ladies.
Another piece of background I think worth bearing in mind is what the White House did in the week leading up to the Friday blow-up (1) Voted (along with Russians and North Koreans) against the UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2) Invited Russia to rejoin the G7 after being expelled for the annexation of Crimea back in 2014 (3) Rebooted diplomatic relations with Russia and approved a new Russian ambassador to the US (4) Announced the US was considering lifting sanctions on Russia for mass killings and rapes of Ukrainians (5) Told Ukraine it must give up occupied territories to Russia, national sovereignty be damned (6) Announced a draw-down of US forces in Europe.
So if Zelensky was on a short wire with Americans by Friday, the six days before it was probably part of the reason why.
But finally, there is this: At about 42:25 during the Trump-Zelensky verbal fracas, Vice President Vance jumped in and made a point about Ukraine waving a finger, in response to which Zelensky suggested Vance might know more about Ukraine were he actually to set foot in the country.
Vance shot back, and I quote:
“I have actually watched and seen the stories, and I know that what happens is that you bring people, you bring them on a propaganda tour Mr. President.”
What Vance was talking about was the standard treatment the Ukrainian state gives foreign dignitaries like Vance. The first time they visit Ukraine, they are given access to Ukrainian war survivors and war veterans, and then offered a trip to Bucha to see the killing grounds and the mass grave sites.
I emphasize, that the massacres took place at the hands of Russian troops is not a matter of debate. It was 64th (Now Guards) Motor Rifle Brigade out of Khabarovsk, mostly. The killed civilians have almost all been identified. Some killers are identified by name. A corpse with its hands tied behind its back and a bullet hole in the back of the skull is pretty conclusive.
The UN and all manner of independent media, me among them, has verified it.
Vance’s characterization of Ukrainian state enabling foreign dignitary travel to eyewitness the massacre sites and mass graves of Ukrainian civilians murdered by Russian soldiers at Bucha as “propaganda,” is an almost textbook example of war crimes denial.
In Ukraine, face-to-face, you talk like Vance did, about Bucha, you will get knocked down. If you are lucky. It would be like going to a public street in Tel Aviv and announcing to anyone visiting Auschwitz that it was being propagandized by the Jews.
What Vance did was odious, vile and the act of a coward. Bucha image attached. That’s what it looked like.
Reprinted from Kyiv Post’s Special Military Correspondent Stefan Korshak’s blog. You can find the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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