We are in the early stages of the weirdest geopolitical moment in 80 years. And we are three years into the cruelest assault on democracy in 75 with Russia fighting with extreme intensity Ukraine’s civilizational choice (and centuries-long longing for independent cultural and political status against the Russian empire in four different forms).
The Ukrainian government has agreed to the ceasefire terms of the Trump Administration, effectively taking a big risk given recent American actions appearing to prejudice the argument and the public terms of this deal and the implied peace negotiations to follow against the Ukrainians by appearing to use Russian demands at every turn as the minimum requirements of a deal.
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Most Russian experts I have canvassed today seem to think that Putin will feel compelled to go along with this deal, even though none of them think that he really wants to end this war at this point. Which brings us to the title metaphor.
President Zelensky and his team have a really tricky path to autonomy and strategic success. They have to court a squirrely American administration who seems hostile and at the best untrustworthy, if only because even their erstwhile European allies are still fighting to keep the Americans on-side at least as a “backstop.” It might also be because the intelligence and targeting data is more important than most of us realized. Although unconfirmed, it seems at least plausible that taking that resource away cost Ukraine it’s one area of strategic leverage in Kursk.
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The temptation must be to tell the Americans to go to hell, work with the G5 plus the Nordics and Baltics, counting on the French, British and new Merz-led Germans to increase military support, give the €200 billion of Russian assets, lend peace enforcer troops, and without the American targeting restriction and with their own Ukrainian-produced arsenal, force the issue with Putin militarily by further degrading an already exhausted Russia that could topple any day.
Instead, Ukraine is going to dance this peace dance with the US and outperform Putin at it. The play seems to be based on the confidence that Putin will put so many conditions on the peace process, make so many outrageous demands, that even a Trump willing to give Putin what he wants will become so frustrated with Russian obstinance and changing of the goal line, that Trump will finally see what the Ukrainians have seen all along, and make them pay. That will not only take great skill on the part of Zelenskyy and his team, but amounts to outmaneuvering Putin where he is very strong and has disinformation and plenty of useful idiots on his side. And this is all because he thinks that he really can’t put the fate of his nation totally in the hands of the Europeans.
The risk, let us be clear-eyed about this, is that the Americans continue to placate Putin, the Ukrainians waste time they could have spent hardening European resolve, and end up either having to make a bad deal or struggle on with diminishing Western support. It’s quite the gamble.
The moral thing would be for us not to depend on geopolitical jiu-jitsu, but rather to have stalwart support from allies to face down the bully. Alas, not the world we are in. May the forces of decency triumph through the negotiating cleverness of the Ukrainian team. Godspeed.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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