Kyiv Post Morning Memo – Everything You Need to Know on Tuesday, Feb. 14

Good morning from Kyiv where the air raid sirens in the capital and across the entire country have just sounded (9:10am Kyiv time). Early reports suggest they were sparked by the activity of Russian Mig-31 planes over Belarus.

 As these aircraft can carry hypersonic missiles, every time one takes off it prompts an alert all over Ukraine.

 What’s happening today?

 Elsewhere, it’s a big day today in Brussels where NATO defense ministers and Ukraine’s allies are meeting to discuss how to keep supplying Kyiv with what it needs to fight off an expected Russian counteroffensive in the coming weeks.

 President Zelensky has doubled down on his plea for Western aircraft after securing commitments for tanks, air defense and precision missiles.

 But among Ukraine’s allies, there is rising concern that the west is struggling to provide enough ammo for the weapons Kyiv already has, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warning the current rate of ammo expenditure was "many times higher" than the output of its allies is currently providing.

 You can read more about that story here.

 There may be big news in the days after the summit as well – government sources told Kyiv Post on Monday that Ukraine is still planning to replace Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, though the issue of who will replace him has yet to be resolved.

Other Topics of Interest

What if Russia Wins?

For fear of nuclear escalation, we have accelerated nuclear proliferation.

 You can read more about that story here.

 What was in President Zelensky’s latest message?

 It sounds like President Zelensky had a particularly busy day on Monday, holding calls with the Prime Minister of Norway, the President-elect of the Republic of Cyprus, the President of the Philippines as well as hosting a meeting with the “international bloc of the government and the Office to discuss the interim results of our diplomatic marathon”.

 He added: “We reach new agreements almost every day. Last week was particularly intense.

 “But the key thing is to ensure that each agreement reached turns into concrete supplies for our defense, concrete interaction between states and concrete signed documents as soon as possible.”

 What’s the latest military situation?

 The British Ministry of Defense (MoD) update on Feb. 14 focuses on Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.

 The MoD notes: “Overall, the current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.”

 It highlights that Russian forces have made small advances in some areas, and that: “Wagner Group forces have almost certainly made further small gains around the northern outskirts of the contested Donbas town of Bakhmut, including into the village of Krasna Hora.

 “However, organized Ukrainian defense continues in the area. The tactical Russian advance to the south of the town has likely made little progress.”

 The Institute for the Study of War’s Feb. 13 daily assessment covers a multitude of topics, most notably: 

·       Moscow continues to leverage its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.

·       The Wagner Group’s continued dissemination of deliberately brutal extrajudicial execution videos and generally graphic content is normalizing an increasing level of brutality and thuggishness within the domestic Russian information space.

·       Russian authorities are increasingly undertaking measures to promote self-censorship in Russia under the guise of countering increased information threats resulting from the invasion of Ukraine.

 And that’s it for today’s Morning Memo.

 Kyiv Post will bring you the latest news throughout the day and we’ll be back with another edition tomorrow.