Highly sensitive U.S. government materials leaked online and obtained by The Washington Post have revealed that the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia is expected to continue bleeding into 2024, with neither side securing victory, but both refusing to negotiate an end to the conflict.
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The leaked analysis, allegedly from the Defense Intelligence Agency, concludes that even if Ukraine recaptures significant territory and inflicts unsustainable losses on Russian forces, which it finds unlikely, it would not lead to peace talks.
The document states, "Negotiations to end the conflict are unlikely during 2023 in all considered scenarios," based on close US scrutiny of each side's troop strengths, weaponry, and equipment.
In addition to predicting an open-ended conflict, the leaked document anticipates that the year will end with both sides achieving only minimal territorial gains due to insufficient troops and supplies for effective operations, describing such a stalemate as the most likely scenario. The assessment also predicts how Ukrainian and Russian military leaders will respond to battlefield challenges.
For Ukraine, the document predicts that an ongoing war of attrition will lead to frustration within the country, "making leadership changes more likely."
The leaked document also predicts that Ukraine will enact total mobilization and intensify its reliance on strikes in Russian territory.
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For Russia, the stalemate is expected to force Moscow to employ degraded reserves, according to the leaked document. The Kremlin will also likely accelerate efforts to integrate captured territories into Russia.
The leaked documents, which surfaced on social media last week, have provided extensive insight into alleged US intelligence concerns about the course of the war.
The Pentagon and the Justice Department have stated that they are investigating the leak of documents, while the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
Neither Ukrainian nor US officials have confirmed the authenticity of the supposedly leaked documents.
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, dismissed the veracity of the documents on his Telegram channel on Friday, April 7, saying that the leaked documents are just another case of Russia “disseminating fictitious information" and they have “nothing to do with Ukraine’s real counteroffensive plans.”
Another top Ukrainian official, the Chief of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), Olexiy Danilov, expressed indifference towards the documents, stating that some information can be found in publicly available sources and that the US and UK agencies would determine the source and motive behind the leak.
Ukrainian Minister for Defense Oleksii Reznikov has labeled a cache of purportedly classified US military documents that have allegedly been leaked a mixture of true and false information, according to Sky News.
Speaking in Madrid, the Minister said he believed the apparent leaks were an information operation to benefit Russia and its allies.
The Minister for Defense’s comments are the highest-level comments from Ukrainian officials to date on the cache that started circulating from a gaming website and that is currently under investigation by US authorities.
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