Ukraine Municipal Poll Takeaways

The International Republican Institute (IRI) latest opinion poll finds strong majorities believe in a promising future, approval of local government services, and a plan to remain in their home cities during and after the war with Russia. Conducted in 21 cities across Ukraine in April and May 2023, this survey of 16,800 respondents represents one of the most comprehensive snap shots of Ukrainian public opinion available.

Here is the report from IRI’s press release.

“The fact that many Ukrainians do not want to move while facing a grave threat from Russia says a lot about their resolve,” said Stephen Nix, Senior Director for Eurasia at IRI. “It’s also a testament to their confidence in local governance during very difficult times.”

Residents plan to remain within their current communities in the face of increased wartime aggravation and after the war. Between 45% - 61% plan to remain within their city even if the war aggravates the situation near their city. Additionally, 87% - 96% of residents in each of the cities surveyed stated that they will not move away from their city after the war.

When asked how they see the future, 74% - 90% of citizens across all surveyed municipalities replied, “rather promising.” Majorities ranging from 50% - 82% also believe that their city is moving in the right direction in 18 of the 21 municipalities. 

The survey also found that many residents approve of the local government services administered throughout their city. Notably, 75% - 90% in each city rated the quality of electricity and power supply as “good” or “excellent.” 

“The quality and supply of electricity is extremely important,” said Nix. “Power will be key for both the civilian population and the military in the fall and winter if the war continues.”

Pluralities in each city, ranging from 39% -62%, believe locally elected authorities should decide local reconstruction priorities. 

Methodology    

The survey was conducted by the Sociological Group “Rating” on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research of the International Republican Institute in 21 cities in Ukraine (Kyiv and oblast centers where the safety situation allowed the survey to be conducted) between April 21 and May 22, 2023, through face-to-face interviews at the respondents’ homes. The total sample consists of n= 16,800 Ukrainians aged 18 and older.  The survey data obtained in each city was weighted by gender and age indicators using data by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022.  The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level for each does not exceed +/-3.5 percentage points. The average response rate was 56 percent.   

The study was funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). 

See the full report here.