Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Makes ‘Tactically Significant’ Progress, Russian Desertions ‘Increasing’

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Ukraine’s armed forces have made “tactically significant" advances along two major lines of attack, according to western analysts, with Kyiv claiming panic is setting in among some Russian forces and the rate of desertions is increasing.

Ukrainian troops have reportedly advanced several miles in the western Zaporizhia Oblast and reached the outskirts of Robotyne, a town on the way to the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, a transport hub of huge strategic importance.

General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukrainian forces in the south, in a short post on Telegram on Saturday night said: "Tavria direction. There are liberated territories. The defence forces are working."

On the same front, Ukraine has reportedly consolidated previous gains around Staromaiorske and is making a push for the neighboring settlement of Urozhaine, where the TO518 farm road is literally the road to Mariupol.

Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in parts of Zaporizhzhia controlled by Moscow, said on Sunday: "The enemy managed to enter and gain a foothold in the northern part of Urozhaine after two weeks of the heaviest and bloodiest battles for this settlement."

Unverified videos appeared on social media on Sunday afternoon reportedly showing Russian troops fleeing Urozhaine under heavy artillery fire.

Though still a long way off, Kyiv’s forces are attempting to reach the Sea of Azov and cut off the land bridge between Russia and Crimea, depriving Moscow’s military of crucial supply routes.

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One hugely significant result of the recent gains is that Russia is being forced to redeploy forces from elsewhere.

In its daily assessment on Saturday, the Institute for the Study of War, described the advances as “tactically significant,” adding: “Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to be forcing the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in western Zaporizhia Oblast, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may be significantly degrading Russian defenses. 

“Russia’s necessary practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate, as both Russian and Ukrainian operations are fixing Russian units to certain sectors of the front. 

“The further degradation of defending Russian forces creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.”

Another focus for Ukrainian attacks this weekend has once again been the Crimea Bridge which on Saturday came under drone and missile attack, part of Kyiv’s concerted effort to cut off Russia’s military supply routes to the frontlines.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has also claimed to have hit a Russian logistics base on Saturday with 17 drones, killing and injuring dozens of Moscow’s troops.

According to Ukraine’s General Staff, panic is growing among the Russian forces and the number of desertions is increasing. 

It has claimed that in the Russian-occupied settlement of Hornostaivka in the Kherson region, Moscow’s military officials are conducting house-to-house searches for deserters.

The General Staff also report that drinking and drug use among newly-conscripted troops has increased with such individuals leaving their positions and hiding in abandoned buildings.