Belarus Remains a Threat

The Main Intelligence Agency of the Defense Ministry says although the situation with Belarus remained complex, it remained “controllable,” and at present Belarus does not demonstrate signs of being a direct threat to Ukraine’s security.

The Agency’s Spokesman, Vadym Skibitsky, said that Ukraine was always on alert for signs of impending conflict. The Agency is searching for red flags, such as the harbinger this past winter when Russia began sending large amounts of troops to Belarus before the February 24 invasion. Should the Agency notice anything, it will act immediately so that Ukraine is prepared for any aggressive actions from the north.

Recent reports have indicated that Russia has been actively recruiting mercenaries from within Belarus. The reports also indicated that these activities were being done in coordination with Belarussian and Russian authorities.

Skibitsky said that  “We do not see the active creation of offensive groups, primarily Russian ones, on the territory of Belarus, at the same time, measures are being taken to constantly support the armed forces of Belarus in combat readiness. Today, on a rotational basis, these are six battalions and one special forces detachment is located near our border… According to the statement of the leadership of Belarus, they carry out activities there to protect the border and their territory.”

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Belarus, despite presumed Russian pressure, has not yet formally joined Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Polling done by Chatham House has indicated that only about 3% of Belarussians would support direct military involvement in Ukraine and around a quarter agreed with Russia launching missiles into Ukraine from Belarussian soil.

The spies’ spokesman said that, at this point, the most serious threat emanating from the north was “sabotage and reconnaissance groups which can operate from the territory of Belarus in our northern regions. This includes reconnaissance, and possible sabotage, and other specific issues that are carried out precisely by special forces.”

As was earlier reported by the Kyiv Post, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister recently said in an interview that relations were already quite bad as “Belarus is an accomplice to the crime of aggression, there is no doubt about that. We broke off diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation immediately after the start of the full-scale attack.”

The Foreign Minister went on to state that “Relations with Belarus will likewise be severed if the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus cross the border of Ukraine.”

Some Belarussian political activists associated with the opposition have indicated in recent interviews with the Kyiv Post that they believed that Belarus may be used by Russia, before the Autumn, to launch an attack on Western Ukraine, namely Lviv, in order to cut off military equipment, supply, and gasoline that is being transported by Western partners from Poland to Ukraine via the city.