Ukraine Counteroffensive Update for Oct 5 (European Edition): ‘It Does Worry Me’

Overview:

·      Several Russian ships relocated from Crimea to Krasnodar port

·      Footage shows a successful day for Ukraine in the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk regions

·      Confiscated Iranian arms and ammo redirected to Kyiv, CNN reports

·      US President “worried” about status of upcoming aid packages

·      Six to eight more weeks of suitable fighting weather, NSC predicts

Russia moves Black Sea Fleet vessels

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian Navy has recently moved several Black Sea Fleet ships from their home port in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, to a harbor in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar region, likely in an effort to protect them from continued Ukrainian strikes. 

Satellite imagery published this week shows that Russian forces transferred at least 10 vessels from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. The photos seem to show that the Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen frigates, three diesel submarines, five landing ships, and several small missile ships have been relocated, with four Kilo-class submarines remaining in Sevastopol.

Operations: Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

Footage published on Wednesday shows that several elements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have made more small gains in settlements south of Bakhmut.

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The AFU’s General Staff posted a fantastic video recap of the day’s action on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/videos/1260967194587586

Sustained ground attacks from the AFU resulted in advancements along the railway between Klishchiivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10 km southwest of Bakhmut). The General Staff also reported gains east of Novoprokopivka and west of Robotyne.

Meanwhile, the General Staff noted enemy counterattacks near Verbove, where Russian forces reportedly regained some previously liberated territory. A number of Russian sources claimed that airborne units pushed back Ukrainian defenses about 2 kilometers.

US to transfer seized Iranian weapons to Ukraine

CNN reported on Wednesday that the United States will hand over to Ukraine a cache of Iranian arms seized from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard back in July. The weapons and ammunition were confiscated from a shipment bound for Yemen to support rebel armies, and the US Department of Justice has been trying for months to find a legal way to transfer the supplies to allies, CNN said.

More than one million rounds of ammunition from that cache already have been sent to Ukraine.

US aid to Ukraine was put in jeopardy this week when last-minute budget negotiations left out of line items to fund the counteroffensive, a situation made more critical on Tuesday when the House of Representatives ousted its speaker, Kevin McCarthy. Any discussions to revive Ukrainian aid will have to wait until the House elects a new leader.

Biden concerned about “critically important” aid to Kyiv as Congress sits in disarray

AFP quoted US President Joe Biden on Wednesday as saying he was “worried” that the recent leadership collapse in the House of Representatives will present obstacles to reviving “critically important” military aid to Ukraine.

The Democratic president said this will be the subject of an upcoming speech, as he works with Republican representatives to put the House back on its feet.

“It does worry me,” Biden told reporters when asked whether the ousting of Republican House speaker Kevin McCarthy by hardliners in his own party could derail more funds for Ukraine's war effort. “But I know there are a majority of members of the House and Senate of both parties who have said that they support funding Ukraine.”

Experts predict another two months of good weather for combat

The Spokesman for Strategic Communications for the US National Security Council, John Kirby, forecast another six to eight weeks of good weather for Ukraine’s counteroffensive before fall rains and mud slowed down the fighting, he said in an address to reporters this week.

According to analysts at the ISW: “Hardening ground during the winter freeze will likely enable the tempo of combat operations to increase, however, and Ukrainian officials have expressed their intent to continue counteroffensive operations into late 2023 and exploit cold weather conditions. ISW has frequently assessed that offensive operations will continue through the winter season and has observed the continuation of combat activities throughout the fall mud season of 2022, winter season of 2022–2023, and spring mud season of 2023.