‘The Battle of Narratives’ – War in Ukraine Update for Feb 14

Overview:

• “Another major Russian offensive on the way,” Brussels warns
• Crimean administrator investigated for helping Russia build attack drones locally
• Republican leader of the US lower house still will not call a vote on Ukraine, per Trump's dictates
• Both Moscow and Kyiv’s troops make more headway along the Kupyansk front
• Kremlin forces take more terrain in the Zaporizhzhia region

Upon return from Kyiv, EU’s top diplomat worries that Russian offensive will intensify soon

The EU’s foreign affairs and security chief, Josep Borrell, warned on his blog Tuesday that the Kremlin could be ramping up its offense in Ukraine after Russian presidential elections in March.

“Another major Russian offensive could be starting in the months after the Russian elections in March,” he wrote, shortly after returning from a visit to Kyiv. “However, I have found that the Ukrainian people remain determined to continue the fight and I saw their ingenuity and resilience at work.”

“In parallel to the battle for Ukrainian territory, a second battle rages,” he wrote. “The battle of narratives... We need to counter the Russian narrative resolutely that this war is about ‘The West against the Rest.’ It is a war in defense of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of every country and it is a war in defense of the principles of the United Nations Charter.”

Collaborator in Sevastopol allegedly helped Russian forces build military drones

The offices of the Security Services of Ukraine (SBU) served notice to Roman Khytushchenko, a deputy minister of economic development in the Kremlin-installed administration of occupied Crimea, for collaborating with invading forces by helping Russia build military UAVs.

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According to the SBU, Khytushchenko led a task force that ramped up local production, in Sevastopol, of attack and surveillance drones for use on the southern front.

US House speaker says he won’t allow Ukraine-aid vote on the floor

The Republican majority leader of the US House of Representatives said on Tuesday that he had no intention of putting the Senate-passed bill on Ukraine aid to the lower chamber’s floor.

Earlier on Tuesday morning, the Senate voted 70-29 to approve a national security bill that includes $60 billion in Ukraine aid.

Asked by reporters that afternoon whether he intended put that bill to a vote, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) replied, “I certainly don’t,” recycling the logic that immigration reform must precede any vote on foreign aid.

Former president Donald Trump has made it clear to his loyal right-wing followers in the House, including Johnson, that immigration reform should not be passed so it can remain an open, unresolved issue for the Trump campaign until the presidential elections in November.

While the Speaker holds the power to call a vote, or not, on legislation that emerges from the lower chamber’s committees, there are mechanisms to bypass that authority if members of his party decide to take that unusual action. This could entail a vote to remove the Speaker from his position, as happened to his predecessor.

Operations: Kharkiv and Donetsk regions

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cited military bloggers as reporting that both Russian and Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed gains along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Geolocated footage posted earlier this week seems to indicate that Russian forces marginally advanced northwest of the Synkivka-Lake Lyman area (northeast of Kupyansk), and as close as two kilometers east of Terny (west of Kreminna).

Other verified imagery shows that troops from Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU) have “regained some tactical positions” about three kilometers east of Yampolivka (west of Kreminna), the ISW reported.

Both Ukrainian and Russian sources reported fighting northeast of Kupyansk near Ivanivka, Synkivka, and Lake Lyman; southeast of Kupyansk near Tabaivka and Tymkivka; west of Kreminna near Terny and Yampolivka; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.

Operations: Zaporizhzhia

The ISW reported on Tuesday that Russian forces recently advanced in the western fronts of the Zaporizhzhia region amid continued fighting. Geolocated footage indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Robotyne.

Both Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that battles raged northeast of Robotyne near Mala Tokmachka and Novoprokovka, east of Robotyne near Verbove, and south of Robotyne near Novoprokopivka.