Putin’s Spring Conscription – Why It’s Dangerous for Ukraine

The Russian Armed Forces plans to conscript nearly 150,000 people between the ages of 18-30 from April 1 to July 15 and many could become a part of the forces in Russia’s ongoing Ukraine invasion.

On Sunday, March 31, Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed off on the twice-yearly routine conscription order – a document posted on the Kremlin’s website showed.

All men in Russia are required to do a year-long military service, or equivalent training during higher education, from the age of 18. And in July, Russia’s lower house of parliament, which is essentially a rubber stamp for Putin, voted to raise the maximum age at which men can be conscripted to age 30, up from 27 – legislation that came into effect on Jan. 1.

Despite some conscripts already reportedly having been sent to the front line in Ukraine in error, legally, these Russian conscripts cannot be deployed outside Russia for two years.

While 300,000 Russian soldiers potentially participating in Russia’s full-scale invasion yearly after two years is not a pleasant thought for Ukrainians, many of these may be sent to Ukraine even earlier, Andrii Kharuk, a professor at Hetman Petro Sahaidachnyi National Ground Forces Academy told Kyiv Post

According to Kharuk, conscripts can be pressured or forced to sign contracts with the Russian army and sent to the front line.

“They will put pressure on these young guys. And after signing the contracts they can be used as ‘gun meat.’ But not many of them are going to do this because even in Russian regions people already know how bloody the war is here, so I think they will get about 20-25 percent of conscripts to sign contracts,” Kharuk told Kyiv Post.

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High Wages, Heavy Losses: Russian Volunteers Account for 20% of War Dead

Russian volunteers, mostly from poorer regions, make up 20% of war casualties. They are often deployed to the most dangerous front lines with promises of high salaries and social benefits.

Russia is testing out new mobilization systems, including electronic summons Ukrainian analyst and serviceman Illya Krotenko wrote on his Facebook.

“The point is that a summons is being received as it comes to the electronic cabinet that is created based on databases and registers automatically. If the conscript ignores it for seven days, he becomes a criminal with all the penalties – like fines, sanctions on operations with real estate, prohibition to have a driver's license, etc.,”  Krotenko wrote on his Facebook page.

Krotenko expects that conscripts will be located in regions close to Ukraine, like Belgorod and Kursk regions.