There are a number of more-or-less plausible explanations for the strange castling in the Russian leadership. However, as often with Kremlinology, these interpretations from the outside do not achieve complete clarification.
Some see the replacement of the former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as a reaction to the Russian failure in the war against Ukraine. However, Shoigu's new post as secretary of Russia's Security Council, of which he was already a member as defense minister, is in some respects a promotion.
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His successor, former Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, is said to be a good economist. His appointment is therefore seen as a sign that Russia wants to accelerate the transition to a war economy. However, Belousov has been demoted in certain respects with his new appointment as minister. He has no experience in the military-industrial complex and his ministry will be more concerned with war logistics than the war economy.
Strategy and power play?
A clear strategy from Russian President Vladimir Putin is not yet apparent. The personnel policy of such regimes are often determined more by intra-administrative and power-political motives that are difficult to recognize than by obvious domestic or foreign policy motives. This already opaque situation may be compounded by irrational aspects that are even more difficult to decipher.
When assessing the so-called "power vertical" of Putin and similar potentates, foreign observers sometimes assume a strategic rationality that does not exist. Rather, there is a "battle of the bulldogs under the carpet" that defies close observation. The various clans around Putin have to be kept in balance, which then leads to such personnel disputes, among other things.
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Shoigu's removal from the Ministry of Defense increases the power of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who is also in command of the war in Ukraine. The really interesting thing about Shoigu's appointment as secretary of the Security Council is the removal of Nikolai Patrushev from this hitherto influential post. Patrushev was previously regarded as the second most powerful politician in Russia.
Russia watchers are therefore now waiting to see what will become of him. It is already clear that Patrushev's replacement will reduce the importance of the Security Council in the Russian power structure. In Putin's Russia, not only individual offices but entire institutions have vaguely defined powers. Putin's deinstitutionalization of practically all organs of the Russian political system is one of his decisive "achievements" of the last quarter of a century.
Rationale for Belousov’s appointment
The popular explanation for Belousov's appointment is his economic competence, which is needed for Russia's transition to a war economy. However, it remains unclear to what extent the economist will even be given a chance at the top of his huge ministerial apparatus.
The Ministry of Defense is highly centralized and has undergone little reform. Belousov may first have to reform the ministry itself before he can deal with strategic tasks. Achieving such a reform during an ongoing war will not be easy. However, we do not know whether all these considerations were ultimately important for Belousov's appointment.
It is possible that personal preferences or clan conflicts, which are difficult to recognize from the outside, played a decisive role. Some observers go as far as to see in Belousov the crown prince for a possible succession to Putin. This may or may not be the case. It is not possible for either domestic or foreign observers to fully decode Russia's Byzantine domestic politics.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
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