In recent weeks, Ukraine has experienced further rounds of nationwide blackouts, with a concerning prospect of no power, and possibly no heating and water, in the upcoming winter.
A recent Financial Times (FT) report, citing Ukrainian officials, said Ukraine had lost more than half of its pre-war power generation capacity. Katarina Mathernova, the EU’s ambassador to Ukraine, said that Russia’s strikes had deprived Ukraine of more than nine gigawatts (GW) of power production since March – half of what was needed to power Ukraine over the last winter.
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For context, a single GW is enough to power approximately 750,000 homes simultaneously in the US. Ukraine lost nine times that within three months.
Pre-war capacity
Before Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine had 56 GW of installed capacity – sometimes called nameplate capacity – and 36 GW of actual capacity.
Actual capacity is lower because a power plant is often equipped with multiple reactors, some of which can become non-operational due to age or maintenance needs, while maintaining older units might not be cost-effective.
“[The] Vuhlehirska and Zaporizhzhia power stations had two units with a nameplate capacity of 0.8 GW, but it was unprofitable to supply gas to such large capacities. Both units were in conservation for years,”
DiXi Group energy security expert Olena Lapenko told Kyiv Post that the Vuhlehirska and Zaporizhzhia power stations had two units with a nameplate capacity of 0.8 GW, but that it was unprofitable to supply gas to such large capacities. Furthermore, power units that had already exhausted their resources and could not be used for various reasons continued to be counted as part of Ukraine’s installed capacity.
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Half of Ukraine’s installed capacity came from thermal power plants (TPPs), with the remainder distributed between nuclear power plants (NPPs), hydropower and pumped storage plants (HPPs), and renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and biomass.
The International Energy Association (IEA) said that 55 percent of Ukraine’s actual pre-war energy production came from nuclear sources, with the rest distributed between gas, oil, and other renewables.
Wartime capacity
Official figures point to Ukraine having lost more than half of its power generation capacity due to infrastructure being damaged, destroyed, or forced under Russian occupation. The reality is likely worse, with a fifth of total installed capacity thought to remain.
Dixi Group estimates a total of 20 GW of available nameplate capacity in the country as of May 15. According to Lapenko, this capacity is not always available in the network, for example the estimates do not take into account repairs at nuclear power plants, the availability of hydro resources, and low capacity of renewable energy facilities,” Lapenko told Kyiv Post
By March 2023, Ukraine’s actual capacity dropped to 14 GW according to a UN report, although Ukraine is believed to have restored a few GWs prior to last winter.
At the June 2024 Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine’s peak energy consumption in winter was 18 GW. The CEO of Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s transmission operator, said at a local event that summer generally consumes 40 to 45 percent less power than winter.
Considering the rolling blackouts in place – and if both figures are considered accurate – it would mean that Ukraine is likely incapable of generating 10 GW of electricity at present despite the peak daily import of 1.7 GW from Europe.
However, in response to Kyiv Post’s enquiry, Ukrenergo’s CEO refused to provide a figure on the power needed last winter and what might be expected in the upcoming winter, calling it sensitive information.
Damage to Ukraine’s transmission system and power substations has also affected the country’s ability to transmit and distribute electricity. Exacerbating the situation is that multiple nuclear reactors are undergoing routine maintenance.
If the worst comes to the worst, there may be insufficient electricity to power the heating and water network in the upcoming winter.
Plants under occupation
Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, a number of plants in central and eastern Ukraine have come under Russian occupation.
- Zaporizhzhia NPP: 6 GW nameplate output. Occupied since March 2022. Actual capacity once provided a fifth of power to the whole of Ukraine
- Zaporizhzhia TPP: 2.8 GW. Occupied since March 2022
- Vuhlehirska Power Station (Donetsk): 3.6 GW by some estimates. Occupied since July 2022
- Luhansk TPP: 1.4 GW. Occupation date uncertain. Likely non-operational due to shelling
Plants damaged or destroyed
Russia has launched eight massive strikes on Ukrainian power plants since March 22, 2024, which led to a combined loss of 9 GW.
- Trypillia TPP (Kyiv): 1.8 GW. Destroyed by Russian strikes on April 11, 2024
- Zmiivka TPP (Kharkiv): 2.3 GW. Destroyed on March 22, 2024
- Burshtynska TPP (Ivano-Frankivsk) + Ladyzhynska TPP (Vinnytsia): 2 GW combined loss. Severely damaged on March 22
- Dnipro HPP (Zaporizhzhia): More than 1 GW lost on March 22, potentially more in the June 1, 2024 attack
Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in 2023, which led to severe flooding and a colossal environmental disaster some have termed an “ecocide,” also rendered the HPP non-operational and removed more than 0.3 GW from the grid.
There were also attacks on other power plants such as the Dobrotvir TPP with an installed capacity of 0.6 GW in western Ukraine, but Kyiv Post is unable to take the incidents into account due to a lack of data.
Short-term solutions
Dmytro Sakharuk, executive director of Ukrainian energy enterprise DTEK, said the company’s immediate task is to restore up to 50 percent of what it had before March 22 – up to 3 GW – but this is only possible if it is protected.
Private and state companies will first aim to restore power units that have suffered minor damage since they can be repaired without significant capital investment, Lapenko from DiXi Group said.
“This will be a short-term restoration for the coming winter and possibly the winter of 2025-2026. Everything else depends on the situation on the battlefield and the availability of air defense systems,” she explained.
But considering the number of plants across Ukraine – some owned by DTEK – the question remains as to whether the government and Western partners are capable of protecting all of them.
Some commercial and residential users can ease the situation with backup generators or power stations, Ukrenergo CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyi said at a local event.
“I spoke to probably 30 or 40 companies that are trying to build up small power stations for themselves… When you calculate your return, you compare Hr .7-8 ($0.17) per kilowatt hour (kWh) [an accumulative measurement of power consumption] from the grid against your investment.
“Many companies are thinking about protecting themselves from disconnection and also increasing [the] efficiency of their operations by installing their own small – like 2 or 3 megawatt… power stations,” Kudrytskyi said.
Private companies are also building co-generation plants – also known as combined heat and power (CHP) plants – that can generate electricity and heat simultaneously on a commercial scale.
“Depending on the availability of equipment, one can install these stations in three to nine months with a price tag of $1 million for 1 MW of nameplate capacity,” ExPro Electricity energy market analyst Daria Orlova told Kyiv Post.
For electricity only, businesses in Ukraine are also installing gas turbine power plants and gas piston power plants, Orlova added.
Kudrytskyi explained that companies also use generators – both gas and diesel – to provide backup energy. These typically cost Hr. 20-25 ($0.50-0.60) per kWh for diesel generators, though the numbers and technologies vary by industry and application. He said the key is to scale it up.
It is possible to increase imports from Europe from 1.7 GW at present during peak hours to 2.2 GW, but there are physical and logistical limitations beyond that.
“If you need extra GWs of imports, you need to build transmission lines. And it takes years, if not decades, in Europe to obtain needed permits, licenses to pass through certain communities and land,” Kudrytskyi said.
Long-term solutions
Sakharuk of DTEK said it would cost $1 billion on average to restore a GW of energy, regardless of energy sources.
Both Ukrenergo and DTEK talked about building a decentralized power network, which would increase Ukraine’s power generation capacity and reduce the risk posed by Russian attacks.
This view echoes Zelensky’s earlier statement that electricity production should be decentralized and gas-oriented during the recent recovery conference in Berlin.
However, building a decentralized network is an anti-crisis decision and a complex one.
“To make it work, we need a gas network, electric power network, and heat network to sell the heat they produce,” Dragon Capital senior analyst Denis Sakva told Kyiv Post.
In addition, centralized thermal energy cannot be replaced overnight.
“You would need 500 one-MW generators to replace a Kyiv TPP that generates 500 MW,” Sakva said, adding that TPPs producing 20-300 MW are still objects large enough to become a target.
Orlova shares similar views, arguing that there needs to be balance in restoration work. “We will still have to restore TPP and HPP facilities,” she told Kyiv Post.
That said, authorities are taking steps forward.
In May, city authorities in Kyiv announced plans to create six mini-TPPs with capacities between 20 MW to 324 MW, and a total capacity of 619 MW.
On June 25, Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Galushchenko said authorities had determined new plant locations and are working on equipment procurement and installation.
Ukraine’s banks are also stepping up. The 17 biggest banks of Ukraine signed a memorandum to provide businesses with concessional loans for energy infrastructure projects.
The total amount of loan can reach €25 million ($27 million) for no more than 5-7 years. The interest rate depends on the central bank’s key rate. As of June 2024, the key rate was 13 percent.
Ukraine’s central bank also informed banks that the energy industry is a priority for lending, according to its latest lending development strategy.
Together with the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Energy, the central bank intends to make a list of potential lenders, research whether it is hard for them to allocate more financing and develop tools to support lending in the sector.
Sakva believes that renewable energy will rise, with backup facilities, such as gas peak power plants, that can be rapidly enabled in adverse weather conditions. Nuclear power plants can also be a backup facility, he said, though they cannot be switched on and off within seconds.
Fact-checking
An FT report, published at the beginning of June, stated that Ukraine's energy production prior to the full-scale invasion was 55 GW and dropped below 20 GW in recent months, citing Ukrainian officials.
However, the numbers referenced were likely Ukraine's total installed capacity, whereas actual energy production is much lower, as Kyiv Post has established.
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