Russian Missile Strike Targets Likely F-16 Airfield in Starokostyantyniv

Russian strike planners on Friday launched a focused but, according to Kyiv statements, unsuccessful attack against the Khmelnytsky region air base in Starokostyantyniv. The Ukrainian airfield is considered to be the best prepared to handle soon-to-arrive American F-16 fighter jets.

Kremlin Tu-95 “Bear” bombers reportedly launched five Kh-101 cruise missiles – the same weapon responsible for a bloody attack on a Kyiv children’s hospital on Monday – at the Ukrainian Air Force’s main bomber base shortly before midnight Thursday-Friday.

All the missiles had been shot down by early Friday morning, along with 19 Shahed kamikaze drones launched from Russia’s Kursk Oblast to accompany the cruise missiles and intended to distract air defenses, a Ukrainian Air Force statement said.

Khmelnytsky social media followed by news platforms on Friday reported the strike and explosions in the sky similar to successful intercepts in the past. Russian milbloggers reported a nighttime attack hit the airfield, but did not report specific damage.

Ukrainian forces also intercepted and destroyed an unspecified number of a new type of Russian drone, possibly a decoy, the independent Ukrainska Pravda new outlet reported, citing military sources.

During a NATO summit in Washington DC on July 10, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said American F-16 jets paid for by Denmark and the Netherlands “are already being transferred” to the Ukrainian military.

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The long-anticipated arrival of the effective but technically complex fourth generation fighter to Ukraine’s skies has focused attention on air bases potentially capable of handling the aircraft, which require long runways free of debris, such as gravel and grass, and substantial maintenance and support infrastructure.

In 2018 in a high-profile “proof-of-concept” exercise flight and maintenance crew from the US’s California National Guard flew several F-15 fighter jets – a plane as complex to operate as the F-16 – to the Starokostyantyniv air base for training with the Ukrainian Air Force.

Following Russia’s main force invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Starokostyantyniv has served as the main air base for Ukraine’s bomber fleet. Despite repeated Russian attacks and regular Kremlin announcements of all Kyiv’s aircraft having been destroyed, Ukraine’s Air Force has continued to operate Su-24 “Fencer” bombers from the airfield.

Probably the most punishing strikes launched from Starokostyantyniv took place in September 2023 when Su-24s carrying British Storm Shadow and French SCALP anti-ship missiles destroyed a heavy assault ship and missile submarine operated by the Russian navy, and demolished the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in the Crimean port city Sevastopol.

The most recent major Russian strike against Starokostyantyniv took place on June 14, when Russia launched 10 cruise missiles, 1 surface-to-surface missile, and 17 kamikaze drones at the base. Ukrainian air defenders claimed shoot downs of seven cruise missiles and all the drones. Damage if any was not reported.

Oleksandr Musienko, a researcher from Kyiv’s Center of Military-Legal Studies, in a June television interview said Kremlin planners with the strikes hope for a “lucky hit” destroying an aircraft or a pilot on the ground, but since there usually is sufficient warning time for Ukrainian pilots to evacuate aircraft or get them under cover before the Russian missiles arrive, the main objective of the Russian strikes against Starokostyantyniv is to degrade the air base’s infrastructure.

The Kremlin wants to render Starokostyantyniv – Ukraine’s only base known to be fully suitable for handling technically complex Western aircraft – incapable of operating F-16 jets efficiently, Musienko told the ICTV news channel.

“We understand very well that the enemy understands this and is looking at how F-16s will be operated from Starokostyantyniv. They want to destroy it… they want to damage the infrastructure. Antennas, radars, support facilities, repair and maintenance. They are looking for storage sites holding SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles… this is all being done, to interfere with the basing of F-16s in Ukraine,” he said.

Some Ukrainian military researchers have confirmed a continuing Russian campaign to keep Starokostyantyniv air base under pressure. The Oko Hora research community in a July 6 analysis of Russian long-range strikes against Ukraine said that the air base was in June the top priority target for Russian kamikaze drone and missile attacks, finding itself in the crosshairs of roughly half of the 368 long-range weapons fired by the Kremlin that month. 

Russian military aviation writers, likewise, have pointed to Starokostyantyniv airfield as the most likely base for Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jets.

Defensive infrastructure includes hangars built out of reinforced concrete and advanced radars, they say, and it’s not possible for Kremlin strike planners to know ahead of time how many and what kind of airplanes are on the field, and only a few of Russia’s weapons capable of reaching the airfield are powerful and accurate enough to destroy an aircraft inside a bunker. The solution, the unofficial Russian Air Force milblogger Fighterbomber wrote, is to pound the airfield repeatedly and destroy what can be damaged.

“This airfield, like the Vasylkiv airfield, is today the main airfield of the Ukrainian Air Force and the most protected by air defense. Of course, they are considered by us as the main candidates for basing the F-16,” Fighterbomber, a poster claiming to be Russian Air Force combat pilot, wrote in a Thursday article.

“Therefore, strikes on the Starokostyantyniv with drones, and other types of long-range weapons are being launched against targets outside of shelters, as well as against shelters whose protective doors don’t close, which makes it possible to hope for damage of an aircraft by explosion or fragments… work on this destruction is carried out around the clock. Everyone is waiting for the F-16. The (vulgar Russian word for Ukrainians), and we also,” the blogger Fighterbomber said.

Baku-based military analyst Agil Rustamzade likewise predicted the Russian strikes will continue, and probably intensify.

“Probably, against the backdrop of statements by American and European officials about the beginning of the transfer of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, attacks on airfields will increase,” Rustamzade said in a Friday statement.