‘Putin’s Winter Playbook’ – Ukraine at War Update for Sept. 12

With Iran’s recent shipments of ballistic missiles to Moscow at the forefront of mind, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his UK foreign counterpart David Lammy spoke with Ukrainian leadership on Wednesday during a rare joint visit to Kyiv. The two top diplomats unveiled aid packages worth a combined $1.5 billion and focused their efforts on the defense of Ukraine’s energy sources as winter approaches.

Lammy announced that, in addition to the humanitarian aid, “hundreds” of new air-defense missiles are on the way from London, while Blinken said that the US was rethinking its position regarding the use of certain American weapons provided to Ukraine on targets within Russia.

After a nine-hour train ride from Poland alongside Lammy, AFP reported, Blinken announced that the US was providing Kyiv with $717 million in new economic assistance, half of which was earmarked for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, a common target for Russian airstrikes as the weather turned colder.

The Secretary of State met with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal about issues related to security, economic recovery, power supply, and citizens wounded and otherwise affected by Russian air strikes.

The US top diplomat said that $290 million of the new aid would be directed toward humanitarian assistance. He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of dusting off “his winter playbook” and “weaponizing the cold against the Ukrainian people.”

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“Putin will not outlast the coalition of countries committed to Ukraine’s success, and he is certainly not going to outlast the Ukrainian people,” Blinken told a Kyiv press conference.

For his part, the British foreign secretary said that the UK was providing £600 million ($782 million) in economic assistance and that new air defense missiles would soon be on the way.

“I can announce we will now also send hundreds of additional air defense missiles, tens of thousands of additional artillery ammunition rounds, and more armored vehicles to Ukraine by the end of the year,” Lammy said.

The diplomats’ visit to Kyiv came after a meeting in London, where the two announced fresh sanctions on Iran for providing Russia with FATH-360 close-range ballistic missile systems and hosting Russian soldiers in Iran to train them on their use.

Blinken and Lammy further assured Kyiv that Washington and London were evaluating their respective positions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons on Russian targets. The UK has long voiced its support for loosening such restrictions some allies impose.

On Wednesday, the Guardian reported that the UK now has decided to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike targets in Russia.

As for the US, a key ask by Ukraine is to loosen restrictions on its supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, which can hit targets up to 190 miles away.

In a joint letter to US President Joe Biden, leading members of Congress from the Republican Party asked him to act on ATACMS immediately.

“As long as it is conducting its brutal, full-scale war of aggression, Russia must not be given a sanctuary from which it can execute its war crimes against Ukraine with impunity,” said the letter signed by Representative Mike McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

At the Wednesday press conference in Kyiv, Blinken said, “We’re working with urgency to continue to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to effectively defend itself.”

He promised that the issue would be further discussed with Ukrainian officials on Friday. 

Ottawa frets about online Kremlin actors as Conservative Party pushes for early elections

State media outlet Ukrinform reported Wednesday that it has seen a letter from Canadian Parliament’s Public Safety and National Security Committee members, calling for a meeting to investigate Kremlin interference in social media.

“The allegations of Russian foreign interference by the US Department of Justice are more than a cause for concern, they are a serious threat to Canadian national security and democratic integrity,” a letter from five committee members to the chairman reads. “This situation calls for an immediate and forceful response to safeguard the integrity of our democracy.”

The letter’s authors asked Ottawa to address Moscow’s disinformation campaigns by looking into ways Kremlin agents are working with “conservative media platforms and figures to influence Canadian politics and public opinion.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has been a reliable supporter of Kyiv (there are more than million Ukrainian-Canadians in a NATO member country of about 39 million) and federal elections in Canada are not scheduled to take place until October of 2025, but they could be called sooner.

On Wednesday, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre said he plans to put forward a no-confidence motion “at the earliest possible opportunity”, which, if successful, could send Canadians to the ballot box this year.

(At least one province, British Columbia, Canada’s third-largest, will hold its general provincial elections next month.)

A poll in February by the Angus Reid Institute, a Vancouver-based non-profit that leans slightly right of center, showed that Canadian support for aid to Ukraine has been fading in 2024.

Riga promises armored vehicles, ammo and local training of Ukrainian troops

The Latvian government has approved a military aid package worth about €40 million ($44 million) to Ukraine this year, and plans to train more Ukrainian troops in Latvia, the country’s leader announced at a Wednesday press conference in Kyiv.

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa made the announcement at the Crimean Platform conference in the Ukrainian capital, where she was joined by President Volodymyr Zelensky, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic.

The package is the third this year from the small Baltic country (population 1.8 million) and will include Patria armored vehicles, drones, ammunition and training for Ukrainian forces.

“We will continue training and equipping more than 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers this year and next year,” Silina said at the conference. She added that her government is working on a similar aid package for the following year.