Mass Russian Armored Assaults in Donbas – Multiple Axes, Modest Ground Gains, Heavy Losses

A multi-pronged Russian offensive throwing massed tanks and armored personnel carriers into the teeth of prepared Ukrainian defenses in the eastern Donbas sector has scored limited ground gains at some locations, but at the price of possibly record losses in men and fighting machines, Ukrainian official statements, news platforms, and unit battle reports on Monday said.

Russian and Ukrainian information platforms likewise reported Russian tactical successes in the town of Toretsk, where Russian infantry captured a coal mine slag heap dominating surrounding terrain, and in the now-ruined village of Niu York, where Kremlin troops took back ruins temporarily held by Ukrainian forces following a counterattack of their own last week.

Large-scale Russian armored assaults – a rarity since late 2023 following the mass fielding by Ukraine of FPV drones – were reported along two major routes in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. By Monday most reports said the Russian main effort and continuing attacks appeared to be aimed towards the town of Kurakhove, an important road center and site of a key regional power plant.

A Sept. 21 report from the 33rd Mechanized Brigade, a formation defending in that sector, said that a Russian tank and armored infantry carrier column heading west in a frontal attack against Ukrainian positions around the village of Antonivka, 5 kilometers east of Kurakhove, lost 16 vehicles in day and night combat.

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A video posted by the Sine Metu drone group showed the attack column stalling after hitting a minefield and then coming under mass fire by artillery, chain cannon, and anti-tank guided missiles. Later images show Ukrainian-piloted FPV/Kamikaze drones setting stopped vehicles on fire and hunting down individual Russian soldiers.

Video published by the 46th Mechanized Brigade on Sept. 22 was, per that unit images, recording a massive 60-plus vehicle column advancing eastward along the N15 highway, the main road leading east from Kurakhove to the Russia-controlled city of Donetsk.

Images showed a Russian combat formation deployed on a wide front before coming under heavy fire from the ground and air. A later unit statement claimed its drone pilots had confirmed 56 destroyed Russian heavy weapons during battles on Sept. 21-23, but, that Russian forces had overrun some brigade forward positions. Video published by the unit geo-located to and showed a probable Russian ground gain of possibly a kilometer, and the Ukrainian loss of the adjacent villages of Hostre and Maksymilyanivka.

Russian milbloggers over the weekend confirmed heavy fighting and forward Russian movement around Hostre, new rounds of attacks to the south centering on the village Maksymilyanivka, and by Monday, were claiming both villages were fully under Kremlin control. According to the semi-official Russian army blogger Dva Mayora, Russian forces were grinding ahead relentlessly and had come near encircling a 10 km x 20 km Ukraine-held salient centered around the town of Nevelske, and potentially containing 2,000-5,000 Ukrainian troops inside it.

A 46th Brigade-published Sept. 22 comment on the battles swirling around Hostre said the Russian encirclement threat of four brigades of Ukrainian troops was real. Thinning Ukrainian defenses have been worn down by repeated massive Russian attacks backed by at-times overwhelming firepower, that unit information feed said.

“You can hold positions for a long time if held by fully equipped (and full-strength) platoons and companies. But, if the platoon positions are held by only a few people…against the mechanized assaults of 50 units of heavy equipment [like tanks], supported by [enemy] artillery [firing shells] in a ratio of 1 Ukrainian to 10 Russian… then holding villages including Maksymilyanivka, Heorhiivka and Hostre wasn’t possible. Their loss was a matter of time,” the 46th Brigade comment said.

Unit feeds from the 25th Airborne Brigade on Saturday reported a 20-vehicle assault against Ukrainian paratrooper positions around the heavily fought-over village of Niu York, 50 kilometers to the north of the Kurakhove sector. A Helmet-cam video published by the special operations police unit Lyut on Monday showed house-to-house fighting and infantry combat.

Russia’s 9th Motor Rifle Brigade and the locally raised Somali special operations infantry regiment attempted to break into Ukrainian defenses in the village and were repelled with the loss of two tanks, six BMP infantry fighting vehicles, and “several” armored cars, a brigade announcement said. Video posted by the 25th showed a Russian attack column coming under fire from artillery and FPV drones in day- and night-time fighting. By Monday, unofficial sources on both sides had acknowledged Russian forces had full control of the village.

Kyrylo Sazonov, a Ukrainian service member and widely read military operations commentator, in a Monday situation update, predicted the Russian offensive was running out of steam, due to massive losses: “The fighting in Niu York is brutal. Toretsk is burning. The enemy is entering Prechystivka and advancing in the Vodyane area… It’s a lousy situation (but Kremlin forces) don’t have the strength to storm Pokrovsk… the enemy is shifting its efforts to the south and is pushing towards Kurakhove… The toughest fighting is there.”

The Kremlin, in June, launched a wide-front offensive in Ukraine’s Donbas region and by August, following heavy losses and very slow going, appeared to have narrowed the medium-term objective of its attacks to the city of Pokrovsk. The current thrusts towards Kurakhove and Toretsk, well to the north and south of Pokrovsk, are proof the Kremlin has realized it lacks the force to capture Pokrovsk with frontal assaults, Sazonov said.

Official Ukrainian sources acknowledged very heavy, recent fighting across the Donbas sector. Data published by Joint Forces Khortytsia, the overall headquarters for AFU units fighting in the war’s eastern front, claimed its troops had, from Sept. 20-23 – during the latest round of heavy Russian assaults – killed or wounded more than 6,000 Russian soldiers, and destroyed or rendered inoperable 78 Russian main battle tanks, 153 armored fighting vehicles and 201 artillery systems.

AFU spokespersons have stated kill claims that Kyiv has documented by ground observation and drone video. However, the AFU has not published full evidence to support its claims.

The Icelandic military researcher Ragnar Gudmundsson on Monday reported daily Russian personnel losses are, averaged by day, at a near all-time war high and comparable to periods of crushing Russian soldier casualties in June 2024. Combat engagements likewise have been more intense in the second half of September 2024, than any other time in the war, Gudmundsson-published data showed.