The 72nd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has reportedly begun retreating from its positions amid ongoing Russian efforts to encircle Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, according to a report by Forbes analyst David Axe.
Axe said that the Russian attack on Wednesday, Sept. 25, succeeded, unlike previous unsuccessful attempts.
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Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Vuhledar had a population of around 15,000. According to Serhiy Novikov, head of the Vuhledar City Military Administration, 107 residents who categorically refused to evacuate remain in the city, as reported by Suspilne.
Citing the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight, Axe said that Vuhledar’s defense may now be in its final stages. Signs indicate that Ukrainian forces, specifically the 72nd Brigade, have begun a gradual retreat to more defensible positions, following Russian forces’ recent threats to the city’s flanks.
On Tuesday, Sept. 24, the Ukrainian Telegram channel MILITARY reported, “Vuhledar. The [Russians] f*****s will take it in 2-3 days. Unfortunately.”
Stanislav Bunyatov, a junior sergeant in the 24th Aidar Assault Battalion, posted on Telegram on Wednesday: “In the morning, [the Russians] moved toward Vuhledar from the Pavlivka sector. The claims that they’ve cut off the road to Bohoyavlenka are currently false.”
Axe suggests that the nearby village of Bohoyavlenka could serve as a fallback position for the retreating 72nd Brigade.
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According to maps from the DeepState project, Russian forces are attempting to outflank Vuhledar. They have already occupied the nearby villages of Prechistivka and Vodyane, positioned on Vuhledar’s western and eastern flanks, respectively.
DeepState analysts report that Russian forces aim to encircle Vuhledar while “leveling it to the ground” in the process.
Oleksandr Musiyenko, head of the Center for Military Legal Research, told RBC-Ukraine that the Ukrainian command will not allow its forces to be encircled in Vuhledar.
“If it becomes clear that holding Vuhledar is no longer viable, I believe the Ukrainian troops will be ordered to withdraw in an organized manner, not allowing the defense line to be broken,” Musiyenko stated.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said that Vuhledar’s position on high ground made it a strategic defensive point. However, with the recent influx of guided aerial bombs, Russian forces have managed to destroy large parts of the town, which, Kovalenko outlined, has enabled Russian infantry to advance.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russia’s goal in capturing Vuhledar is to stretch the AFU, preventing the redeployment of Ukrainian troops to reinforce the defense of Pokrovsk.
Musiyenko said that Vuhledar plays a critical role in Ukraine’s eastern defense operations. By holding the area, Ukrainian units have been able to tie down a large Russian force and inflict significant losses. This has allowed Ukraine to strengthen its defense in the Pokrovsk sector and halt Russian frontal attacks near Novohrodivka.
Musiyenko added that Russia is determined to capture Vuhledar, which sits on a strategic elevation, to aid its future offensives and realign the front line. Moscow also fears that Ukraine could use the heights around Vuhledar to position long-range artillery capable of striking Volnovakha, a key railway hub for Russian logistics.
So far, there have been no official statements regarding a withdrawal to more fortified positions from either the General Staff or the brigade’s leadership.
However, on Monday, Sept. 23, the brigade’s official Telegram channel posted a video showing destroyed Russian equipment from recent battles. The caption read: “Despite everything, we know our job and we do it.”
Footage from drone cameras shows a large number of destroyed vehicles used by Russian forces for assaults and ammunition transport, suggesting heavy losses among their troops.
The video highlights the precise work of FPV drone operators, who target and destroy Russian armored vehicles.
The footage primarily features destroyed light infantry vehicles, including UAZ military off-road utility vehicles, old pick-ups, and numerous Chinese-made buggies. Additionally, trucks mainly transporting ammunition, as well as armored vehicles for assault groups like armored personnel carriers and amphibious vehicles, were also destroyed.
Vuhledar is semi-encircled, Col. Vladyslav Seleznyov, former head of the AFU’s General Staff press service, told Kyiv Post on Tuesday, adding: “My prediction is that we will lose it in a few days, maybe even sooner.”
Seleznyov said that the 72nd is severely exhausted, and it remains uncertain whether the General Staff has the resources to continue defending the city, given that Ukrainian forces are stretched thin across the entire front line.
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