Russian forces have entered Vuhledar in the Donetsk region from the western and southern parts of the town, according to analysts from the DeepState project.
DeepState reports that Russian troops have raised their flags in the western part of the town, and Russian infantry have been spotted among high-rise buildings in Vuhledar.
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The analysts also indicate that Russian forces are shelling the central part of the town, where Ukrainian forces continue to resist.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) General Staff has yet to confirm this information. In their morning update, they reported that Ukrainian troops near Vuhledar, Bohoyavlenka, and Zolota Niva successfully repelled six Russian assaults in the Vremivsk sector.
Stanislav Bunyatov, a junior sergeant in the 24th Aidar Assault Battalion, posted on Telegram on Monday, Sept. 30, that the situation in Vuhledar is dire. “If earlier I had doubts that it could come to this, those doubts are now gone,” he wrote.
Bunyatov quoted a soldier from the Ukrainian 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade who is familiar with the situation saying:
“The situation is critical. The attack is coming from three sides: Vodyane, Prechistivka, and Pavlivka. The enemy has pushed into the south and west of the city, and heavy fighting is underway there.”
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The soldier also reported that the road used for infantry withdrawal is heavily targeted by Russian mortars and artillery. Additionally, numerous Russian drones, including both FPV and reconnaissance types, are concentrated in the area, controlling the entire route.
“The command has been promising rotation for a week, but they keep delaying it due to changing conditions and telling us to hold on,” the soldier said. “There is no evacuation at all, as BMPs (infantry fighting vehicles) don’t have time to reach Vuhledar.”
He added that Russian forces open fire immediately on any BMPs attempting to approach. Many seriously wounded soldiers cannot be evacuated on foot due to the drone threat.
“Many of our ‘200s’ (dead) are just lying on the roads,” the soldier said.
He also warned that food, ammunition, and fuel are running out.
“The only option is to gradually withdraw while fighting for those who are still able,” he said.
Bunyatov said that his Telegram post might lead to a “conversation” with his leadership. “If speaking out saves soldiers’ lives, so be it. If the command of the 72nd Brigade reacts only because of public outcry, then the blame for these demoralizing posts lies with them,” he said.
Later on Monday, Bunyatov added that the situation in Vuhledar was continuing to deteriorate as Russian forces increased their pressure.
In a new post today, Bunyatov wrote: “I think the town has only a couple of days left, but unfortunately, the main issue isn’t the town itself,” referencing brigade personnel withdrawal.
On Tuesday, Oct. 1, the MILITARY Telegram channel reported: “In Vuhledar, the enemy has occupied the southeastern, southwestern, western, and northwestern parts of the town. In other words, nearly the entire city.”
Later, the same channel stated: “Vuhledar has been captured!”
There have been no official statements confirming the capture of the town or a withdrawal to fortified positions from either the Ukrainian General Staff or the 72nd Brigade’s leadership.
However, on Sept. 30, the brigade’s official Telegram channel posted a photo of destroyed Russian military equipment on the outskirts of Vuhledar, captioned: “Our answer to their [Russians] ‘truth’!”
The image reportedly shows a damaged Russian GAZ-66 truck fitted with improvised “brazier” anti-drone protection.
Forbes recently reported, citing Russian military bloggers and defense experts, that Russian forces are utilizing drones modeled after Ukraine’s “Dragon Fire” thermite-spewing drones, technology that is believed to have been stolen from Ukrainian designs.
On Sept. 25, several Russian military bloggers shared a video attributed to Moscow’s Vostok battalion, allegedly showing these copycat Dragon drones igniting a tree line near the severely damaged town of Vuhledar. Ukrainian troops from the 72nd Mechanized Brigade had reportedly established a defensive position under those trees.
According to the US Army, which also has thermite drones, soldiers have only three to 10 seconds to escape a thermite drone attack.
Amid ongoing Russian efforts to encircle Vuhledar, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade has reportedly begun retreating from its positions, as reported by Forbes analyst David Axe on Sept. 25. Axe suggested that the nearby village of Bohoyavlenka could serve as a fallback position for the retreating brigade.
Oleksandr Musiyenko, head of the Center for Military Legal Research, told the RBC-Ukraine news outlet that Ukrainian command is unlikely to allow its forces to be encircled in Vuhledar.
Musiyenko said that if it became clear that holding Vuhledar was no longer viable, the Ukrainian troops would be ordered to withdraw in an organized manner to prevent the defensive line from being broken.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russia aims to capture Vuhledar to stretch the AFU, thereby preventing the redeployment of Ukrainian troops to bolster the defense of Pokrovsk.
Col. Vladyslav Seleznyov, former head of the AFU’s General Staff press service, told Kyiv Post on Sept. 24 that Vuhledar is semi-encircled, predicting, “My prediction is that we will lose it in a few days, maybe even sooner.”
He expressed concern about the 72nd Brigade’s exhaustion and questioned whether the General Staff has sufficient resources to continue defending the city, and that Ukrainian forces are stretched thin across the entire front line.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Vuhledar had a population of around 15,000. According to Serhiy Novikov, head of the Vuhledar City Military Administration, 107 residents who categorically refused to evacuate remain in the city, as reported by Suspilne.
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