Ukraine's Population Set to Plummet to 25.2 Million by 2051

According to the Institute of Demography and Social Research at the National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine’s population is continuing to shrink likely to reach 28.9 million by 2041 and 25.2 million by 2051.

As of Jan. 1, 2022, before the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine's population was 42 million, according to the Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2040.

Losses from the war, along with millions of displaced Ukrainians seeking refuge internally and abroad, paint a grim picture of Ukraine’s demographic future.

The document emphasizes that “population forecasting is challenging due to the lack of necessary statistical data. This is due to the inability to account for demographic indicators in temporarily occupied territories, as well as the unpredictability of further military developments.”

The strategy’s authors highlight a significant population decline caused by depopulation (where deaths exceed births) and large-scale labor migration, which often becomes permanent. Other factors include the temporary occupation of parts of Ukraine and new threats arising from armed aggression.

It is also noted that Ukraine’s population decline began even before the full-scale war. For example, according to the 2001 national census, Ukraine had a population of 48.5 million. The war has significantly worsened the demographic situation.

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A senior US Defense Department official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, confirmed the high levels of casualties among DPRK soldiers who were described as lacking combat experience.

Last month, The Wall Street Journal, citing Ukrainian sources and Western intelligence data, reported that the number of deaths in the Ukrainian Armed Forces amounted to 80,000 servicemen, with 400,000 wounded.

The publication also notes that it is difficult to assess the true losses, as neither side publishes official data.

The Wall Street Journal calls the heavy losses a major problem for Russia but emphasizes that similar figures on the Ukrainian side have a much greater impact due to Ukraine’s much smaller population.

In November 2023, the UN estimated at least 10,000 Ukrainian civilians had died in the war but said the number could be much higher.

Ukraine’s population stood at 52 million upon its independence in 1991.

As part of the former Soviet Union, not everyone in Ukraine was ethnically Ukrainian, with many coming from other Soviet republics such as neighboring Russia or Belarus – or even from as far as Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan, some of whom made Ukraine their home with their children now defending Ukraine.

Ukraine experienced slight population growth following its independence. However, the numbers soon declined as locals went abroad – often to Russia and Poland – in the 1990s for better economic opportunities following the economic turmoil that sent a ripple across the post-Soviet landscape.

By the 2001 official census – the only of its kind conducted in independent Ukraine –the country’s population was placed at 48.4 million.