Residents of three of the seven battleground states in the US Presidential race – Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – will cast ballots in local economies booming from US arms support to Ukraine, and with thousands of jobs potentially on the line depending on the election outcome.
According to US Department of Defense information, in 2023, the Pentagon spent $27.3 billion of taxpayer money purchasing or refurbishing military equipment for Ukraine, in 35 states.
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One swing state benefiting mightily from US military support to Ukraine that year was Pennsylvania, which received a $1.55 billion federal spending injection that year.
It has the nation’s sixth-biggest state economy and with 19 Electoral College votes is considered “must-win” by both Republican and Democratic strategists.
The Scranton Army Ammunition plant in northeastern Pennsylvania, the US military’s primary site for manufacturing 155mm artillery shells, and shareholders and staff, were the main beneficiaries.
Currently, the plant churns out 36,000 shells a month, double the 2022 production.
Generals both in the US military and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) say that if US taxpayers can fund it and Scranton can manage the capacity expansion, the long-term need for 155mm shells made in Pennsylvania is at least four times that figure.
Aside from artillery shells, Pennsylvania’s developed defense manufacturing sector also produces military aircraft engines, avionics and structural parts, combat vehicles and defense electronics. The state’s universities and research institutes are longtime national centers for defense-related R&D.
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Along with staff at production sites elsewhere in the state operated by Boeing, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems and Raytheon Technologies, and research hub staff, voters with jobs linked to defense could have an oversized impact on Pennsylvania’s Presidential vote.
In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden defeated incumbent Republican President Donald Trump by a razor-thin 80,555-vote margin. Of the 9.8 million ballots potentially up for grabs in Pennsylvania in 2024, about 150,000 could be cast in the greater Scranton area alone.
Of the other six states generally considered to be battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin) two – Arizona and Wisconsin – have seen dramatic increases in federal defense spending, which the Pentagon has directly linked to support to Ukraine.
By the Pentagon’s numbers, Arizona is not only the swing state benefiting most from Ukraine-related defense spending, but the US state that has received the biggest cash injection as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, full stop.
In 2023, Arizona, a state with a population of a bit more than seven million and eleven Electoral College votes, saw $1.75 billion in taxpayer money pumped into its economy for Ukraine-related spending, more than any other state. Arizonans also saw the Pentagon commit another $320 million in defense infrastructure investment and development in the state.
According to the Arizona Chamber of Commerce, the state’s top defense manufacturing industries produce missiles of multiple types, helicopters – including the Apache gunship, and advanced drones. Development and testing of aerospace systems, both for military and civilian use, contribute to revenue streams in state-sponsored tech hubs in Tucson and Phoenix, a 2023 report by the Arizona Technology Council said.
Arizona, per state data, is seventh nationwide in terms of persons employed in aerospace and defense generally, and fifth nationwide specifically in defense-related manufacturing.
Wisconsin, with ten Electoral College votes, received $460 million in Ukraine-related defense spending in 2023, a relatively low figure compared to $1.3 billion paid out by the Pentagon to companies in vehemently pro-Harris California, or $960 billion in reliably pro-Trump Texas.
If one counts potential ballots, most likely, that cash infusion will not influence where Wisconsin’s Electoral College votes go.
In 2023, only some 9,000 of the state’s 3.4 million registered voters worked in jobs directly or indirectly connected to the defense or aerospace sectors, accounting for a little less than $2.5 billion out of the state’s $414 annual GDP, based on registered voter figures and data published by the Aerospace Industries Association of Wisconsin.
Statistics compiled by the Federal Election Commission confirm that even having a big defense sector in one’s state, or even seeing a big stream of Pentagon cash flow into local industry because of US support to Ukraine, doesn’t always decisively incline voters towards a particular candidate.
In Arkansas, a state according to polls strongly supporting Trump (and effectively written off by the Democratic party), US federal funding to the defense industry was $1.6 million, with more than a lion’s share going to a Raytheon facility near the town of Camden, manufacturing one of the most effective weapons seen in the Russo-Ukrainian War, the 227mm HIMARS precision-guided rocket.
Manufacturing is going flat-out, and demand is so high for HIMARS rockets and other Raytheon munitions, the Pentagon in 2023 also committed $703 million – which was more defense investment than any other state in the Union that year – towards increasing production capacity.
As for 155mm shells, the Ukrainian demand for HIMARS rockets is close to bottomless.
Yet, per data compiled by the Federal Election Commission on campaign counting individual voter donations to candidates, during the 2024 campaign Arkansans – though living in the state whose economy was most helped by Ukraine-linked defense spending – contributed close to equally to the (Harris ($1.8 million) and Trump ($2.2 million) campaigns.
In the unquestioned battleground state of Arizona, voter enthusiasm based on campaign donations seemed to be much the same as in Arkansas, with Harris slightly ahead of Trump in prospective voter donations ( $10.3 million vs. $9.6 million).
In Pennsylvania, the donation ratio was far more dramatic, $21.2 million vs. $10.3 million, and in Wisconsin, $8.1 million vs. $4.2 million, both in Harris’ favor.
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