Ukraine’s Eurobonds Price Increases After US Elections

After the night of elections in the US and Trump’s victory, Ukraine’s Eurobond price increased by 2-5% depending on maturity date, the Bloomberg Terminal data showed. 

Bonds maturing in 2029 and 2041 showed the least increase of 1.72% and 1.14% respectively. 

But bonds maturing in 2030-2036 showed from 2.79% to 4.54% increase with prices nearing 50 cents on the dollar across the maturity curve.

The continuing price hike endures from the successful debt restructuring deal Ukraine completed this summer and persisted during the pre-election period. 

Fund managers kept buying Ukraine’s dollar bonds in a bet on Donald Trump becoming the winner and ending war with Russia, Bloomberg wrote in October. Another Kyiv Post source familiar with Ukraine’s talks with the US investment community corroborated the information. 

This might mean that not only could the hostilities end, but Ukraine’s economy might be less burdened by war costs and recover well enough to repay the debt, a source in one of Ukraine’s investment companies explained to Kyiv Post. 

Ukrainian financial analysts also notice positive moods of Wall Street.

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“The value of Eurobonds maturing in 2036 increased by more than 20% in this short period of time. Markets seem to believe in Trump’s ability to help bring peace to the country. According to their logic, the war will not last for years. After some time, the war will stop and post-war development will begin,” ICU financial analyst Mykhailo Demkiv wrote on Facebook. 

In October, Bloomberg indicated that Ukraine’s Eurobonds were the top performers in emerging markets worldwide. “Warrants that have payments linked to Ukraine’s economic performance are trading at above 70 cents on the dollar, their highest levels since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, when they plunged to less than 15 cents,” Bloomberg reported.