Russia Fills Ukrainian Skies with Shahed Drones - What Can Ukraine Do? Part One

Russia has consistently used Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV – drones) to attack Ukraine since they first acquired them from Iran in September 2022. In recent weeks the stream of attacks on Kyiv and other cities has become a torrent. Previously used as an adjunct to cruise and ballistic missile strikes, they are now used as a stand-alone method of attack in ever increasing numbers.

Shahed strikes that previously happened two or three times a week involving a dozen or fewer UAVs are now a daily occurrence, dispatched in waves over several hours sometimes involving up to 100 of the machines.

The triangle shaped Shahed-136, or “Geran 2 (Gerainium)” as the Russian version is called have almost exclusively been targeted against civilian residencies and infrastructure. It can travel at speeds of up to 200 kph (125 mph) at ranges of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) or more with a 50-kilogram (110 pounds) high explosive warhead.

In September Russia launched more than 1,200 Shaheds against Ukraine and over 2,000 in October bringing the total to more than 7,000 since the start of the year. While Ukraine’s air defense system has intercepted around 80 percent of them, it means that more than 1,000 still reach their targets – houses, apartment blocks, kindergartens, hospitals, and schools causing significant numbers of civilian casualties.

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Military experts, including serving personnel, have told Kyiv how UAV strike tactics are evolving, the comparison between the effectiveness of drones and missiles, and the ways Ukraine and its allies can counter them.

Increases in Shahed production

The biggest issue is the sharp increase in Shahed production, which takes place in Tatarstan’s Elabuga Special Economic Zone, located about 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) east of Moscow, using a mix of Iranian, Chinese and illegally acquired Western components.

“I’ve examined Shaheds closely. They’re very simple. The main structure is pressed plastic fiber, [reinforced] with carbon fiber, and even cardboard inside. It has a simple Chinese engine with a wooden propeller,” Andriy Belchev, a Ukrainian engineer and a drone manufacturer says.

Initially, the Shaheds were assembled from Iranian components shipped in batches across the Caspian Sea.

“The assembly process is straightforward – done in an autoclave. Even students are involved. Scaling is easy; they’ve added workshops and can ‘crank out’ thousands,” Valeray Romanenko, an aviation expert and senior researcher at Ukraines’ National Aviation University (NAU).

Changes in tactics

Military personnel told us that they noted that Russian Shahed tactics have changed significantly of late.

“They use them instead of missiles, looks like they have trouble producing enough missiles now. So, they’re replacing them with Shaheds to exhaust our Air Defense. Shaheds now come in at low altitudes. At these heights, Shaheds are detected later, and it’s harder to shoot them down in urban areas, but at these heights mobile machine-gun groups are effective. ," Dmytro Bielyk,  press-officer of the 1129 Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment says.

The latest Shahed models have become true kamikaze drones.

“Previously, Shaheds could be shot down without much consequence – they only exploded upon reaching a target. Many disabled Shaheds were later found intact in fields. Now, their explosives are triggered even if there’s an attempt to interfere with their operation, such as electronic warfare or engine strikes, resulting in more explosions in residential areas," Colonel Kostantyn Horbachov of the Ukrainian Armed Forces says.

Modernization and cost reduction

Russia has not only been working to improve the Shahed but also to reduce costs and simplify construction.

“For example, they have removed the engine starter, lowering costs. They’re using the Chinese MD550 engine and changing the body material to stamped fiber, making production cheaper and easier,” Oleh Katkov, an analyst at Defense Express Group says.

Russia isn’t just producing more Shaheds but is also building an unidentified drone type that “escorts” the Shaheds and carries a different payload.

“When Ukrainian air defense reports shooting down ‘80 Shaheds and unknown drones,’ these unknown drones often serve to bolster the Shahed attack or act as decoys," Katkov says.

Military sources report that Russia is also upgrading Shahed’s control systems.

“They’re installing Russian-made navigation systems, which are more effective than the Iranian ones. For instance, the ‘Kometa’ [EW resistant] system and satellite communications are now being installed on Shaheds," Katkov adds.

New warheads aimed at killing as many civilians as possible

Russia is experimenting with new types of ammunition for Shaheds. Recently, it was discovered that some drones are now equipped with thermobaric warheads, designed to destroy enclosed spaces by spreading napalm-like fuel.

“In April 2024, Ukrainian hackers breached Shahed developers’ systems. They found plans for a new warhead type, with thousands of units expected to be produced. If it was a project in April, we may see the product this winter. Thermobaric ammunition is specifically anti-civilian; it spreads burning liquid in corners and corridors of buildings where civilians typically take shelter, burning out the oxygen. It serves no military purpose – it’s pure terror,” Katkov tells us.

Katkov’s team has identified several types of Shahed warhead.

“For example, the original Iranian warhead is quite rudimentary. The Russians found it ineffective and replaced it with Soviet-designed warheads,” according to Katkov.

Since late 2022, the Russians have used their own warheads. According to Karkov, Russians carried out several stages of modernization. For example, in the summer of 2023, a new high-explosive fragmentation warhead began to be used.

Part two of this review will provide insights on Ukraine’s countermeasures, the new methods it uses to intercept most Shaheds despite the increasing numbers, and how Western allies could provide effective, rapid support in combating them.