No Blackouts Anticipated for Ukraine for Now, Says Energy Director

Ukraine currently expects no blackouts, Oleksii Brekht, acting chairman of the management board of Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s energy transmission operator said on Thursday. 

Brekht, who was joined for a discussion panel by other energy representatives at the Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) on Nov. 7, said the energy situation this winter remains challenging before adding that no blackouts are expected thanks to efficient restoration – unless Russian attacks cause new damage to energy facilities.

“For more than 52 days, Ukraine has operated with no restrictions,” Brekht said, adding that Ukraine currently has 16-18 gigawatts (GW) of available capacity, though he noted that it’s a three-fold decrease compared to what the country had in 2004. 

However, Brekht added that there might be hiccups in the system due to potential failure caused by hasty repairs of around 30 percent of facilities, he said.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said in June that Ukraine’s peak energy consumption last winter was 18 GW, with renewed Russian strikes on Ukrainian power plants this year having destroyed much of what was left last year. 

Oleksiy Chernyshov, CEO of Ukrainian oil and gas conglomerate Naftogaz, said the only way to ensure energy security is to balance usage with available capacity.

Brekht also referenced the recent increase in energy imports from Europe, from 1,700 megawatts (MW) to 2,100 MW, which he said is the equivalent of two nuclear reactor units. 

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For reference, a Soviet-era VVER-1000 nuclear reactor operating in Ukraine has a capacity of 1,000 MW, or 1 GW. 

Brekht added that talks are also in place with Polish operators to bring 150 MW of extra imports to Ukraine without elaborating on the details.  

Ukraine is also in a “good place” when it comes to restoring damaged facilities, said Nataliya Boyko, energy issues advisor to the prime minister of Ukraine. 

Boyko added that restoration is hampered by multiple hurdles outside of government control, namely the lack of equipment, personnel and funding, leading to some projects being delayed until next year. 

The panel speakers also touched on the decentralization of Ukraine’s energy system. Brekht said the current goal is to ensure the needs of each Ukrainian region are met locally.

Boyko said Ukraine’s energy industry could not operate without the private sector, though the private and public sectors should take on different roles – she favors the private sector for wind energy, for instance, but she said large projects that could balance the system should remain under the state. 

Geoffery Pyatt, assistant secretary at the US State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources, also joined the discussion remotely and praised Ukraine’s resilience and reforms in the energy sector before reaffirming bipartisan support from the US Congress on Ukraine’s energy sector. 

“The US focus is on support to Ukraine’s energy sector – that is a bipartisan priority for Republicans and Democrats that I engage with every single week in our Congress. 

“We all understand that energy is fundamental, both to Ukraine’s successful defense of its sovereign territories and to Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and future status as a member of the European Union,” Pyatt said. 

Pyatt noted that the G7 and its allies have supported Ukraine’s energy sector with $5 billion since the start of Russia’s 2022 invasion and an additional $325 million in urgent energy sector assistance announced in September.