‘Diplomacy Has No Prospects Without Strength’ – Ukraine at War Update for Nov. 11

Russia and Ukraine both launched record numbers of drone attacks on each other overnight on Saturday, despite a phone call from US President-elect Donald Trump urging Russian President Vladimir Putin not to escalate the conflict last week.

The Republican said on the campaign trail that he could end the fighting in Ukraine within hours and has indicated he will talk directly with Putin – a major break from the approach adopted by current President Joe Biden.

On Sunday, the Washington Post reported that Trump had a phone call on Thursday with the Russian strongman in which he told Putin not to inflame the attritional war. The Kremlin had earlier said it saw “positive signals” from Trump’s willingness to strike a deal, and several people speaking to the US paper said Trump had expressed the desire for more conversations on “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon.”

But Russia has continued to bombard Ukraine since speaking to Trump. Russia fired 145 drones at Ukraine overnight Saturday-Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said – more than in any single nighttime attack of the conflict so far.

“Last night, Russia launched a record 145 Shahed and other strike drones against Ukraine,” Zelensky said on social media, urging Kyiv’s Western allies to do more to help Ukraine’s defense.

Russia also said it had downed 34 Ukrainian attack drones targeting Moscow on Sunday, the largest attempted attack on the capital since the start of the Russian offensive in 2022.

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US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Sunday that the White House was to spend its remaining $6 billion of funding for Ukraine before Trump takes office, warning of the risks of ending US support for Kyiv.

Following Trump’s election, Zelensky warned there should be “no concessions” to Putin. Ceding land or giving in to his other hardline demands would only embolden the Kremlin and lead to more aggression, he said. The Ukrainian president has also previously warned that without US aid, Kyiv would lose the conflict.

In his evening address, Zelensky alluded to Ukraine’s attempted barrage of Moscow, the largest attack targeting the Russian capital since the start of the conflict. Thanking his forces responsible for drone combat, he said: “Russian military objects are becoming more and more accessible to our soldiers.” 

Russia has made other advances on the battlefield. Moscow’s troops made their largest territorial gains in October since March 2022, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Two Names off the List

While dozens of top Republican politicians, strategists, and operatives are believed to be in the running for roles in Trump’s forthcoming foreign policy team, two leading names have been removed from the running. 

Former US Ambassador to the UN and presidential candidate Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will not join the president-elect’s second administration in a public snub of the two prominent MAGA supporters who served during his first term.

Trump announced on his social media site, Truth Social, on Saturday night:

“I will not be inviting former Ambassador Nikki Haley, or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, to join the Trump Administration, which is currently in formation,” he wrote. “I very much enjoyed and appreciated working with them previously, and would like to thank them for their service to our Country.”

It is unclear why the convicted felon chose to single out Haley and Pompeo as unwelcome on his team at this point in his transition or why he has not made similar declarations about other rejected candidates.

Trump may hold resentment against Haley for running against him in the GOP primary as a formidable opponent. She harshly criticized the former president during her campaign, calling him “unhinged.” The former governor of South Carolina later declared that she would vote for Trump when he secured the nomination and gave him a glowing endorsement during the GOP convention.

Pompeo has not had the same level of public clashes with the president-elect. He served in two powerful positions during Trump’s first term: Secretary of State and CIA director. 

Trump senior adviser tells BBC, Zelensky “isn’t serious” if he expects to liberate Crimea

US President-elect senior advise Bryan Lanza said Trump “will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia,” according to the BBC.

Lanza, a Republican party strategist, told the BBC the Trump administration would ask Zelensky what he sees as a “realistic vision for peace.”

“And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he’s not serious,” Lanza said, the BBC reports.

“When Zelensky says we will only stop this fighting, there will only be peace once Crimea is returned,” Lanza said. “We’ve got news for President Zelensky: Crimea is gone.”

Zelensky says Kyiv has received “important decisions from our partners. The ones that really help us.”

In his nightly address of Sunday, Nov. 10, President Zelensky outlined Kyiv’s ongoing priorities working with European and North American allies, focusing on air defenses for the winter, “real progress on long-range capabilities,” and US permission for its contractors to provide maintenance support.

Zelensky opened his nightly remarks to the country by saying, “This week, we also have important decisions from our partners. The ones that really help us.”

He said Paris had already helped by approving an unspecified missile package. He then mentioned the ally’s assistance in training Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) service members, saying: “We also continue with France an exceptionally valuable training program for our warriors,” which may include ongoing pilot training for the Ukrainian Air Force in addition to programs for Ukrainian Ground Forces soldiers.

Zelensky emphasized the immediate work needed with US cooperation before winter and, presumably, before the end of January 2025. “We are working with our partners from the United States on new defense packages that bolster our air defense system,” he said. “This is critical as we head into winter, facing ongoing Russian strikes. We also need real progress on long-range capabilities,” perhaps implying the Biden administration has not concluded loosening restrictions on striking military targets in Russia.

The President asked for help from US defense industry technical experts in expediting repairs and streamlining the upkeep of ally-provided war equipment. “There is now a decision [now being considered] allowing American contractors to work in Ukraine for equipment repair and maintenance, which will significantly speed up these processes,” said Zelensky.

He said Canada is working to supply additional NASAMS air defense systems.

Zelensky reported that the UK had made “a new decision on sanctions against Russian entities involved in the war effort – this is also very important.” He reiterated: “All Russian companies and individuals supporting Russia’s defense industry must be isolated globally to weaken Russia’s ability to evade genuine diplomacy and fuel the war further. Everyone in the world needs sanctions to first and foremost undermine Putin’s self-confidence.”

Zelensky also acknowledged aid given by Lithuania, which includes procurement and production in Ukraine, and Sweden, which includes “both civilian and military support, especially regarding our maritime security.”

Zelensky concluded his address by trying to balance diplomacy and military aid as keys to a successful outcome for Ukraine:

“We are grateful to each of our partners worldwide, to all political and community leaders committed to ensuring that genuine diplomacy succeeds. We understand very clearly that diplomacy has no prospects without strength,” said Zelensky.

“But without a clear understanding of diplomatic goals, weapons alone will not do the job. That’s why strength and diplomacy must work hand in hand. This is the only way to secure a lasting peace and to prevent any recurrence of this kind of war. And this is entirely possible.”