Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Russian forces recently advanced during two company-sized mechanized assaults within and south of Kurakhove in western Donetsk Oblast.
- Geolocated footage confirms reports that an explosion damaged the Ternivska Dam at the Kurakhivske Reservoir on November 11.
- Recent Western and Ukrainian estimates about the size of the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast do not represent a significant inflection, as Russian forces have spent several months gathering forces for a future counteroffensive effort to expel Ukrainian forces from Russian territory.
- Ukrainian military officials warned that Russian forces may intensify assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast in the near future.
- Select Russian defense officials appear to be contradicting Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent assertion that Russia is not interested in forming a unified security bloc against the West.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Kurakhove and in Kursk Oblast.
- The Russian military reportedly continues to coerce conscripts into signing Russian military service contracts, likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
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Authors: Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Christopher Paludi, and Frederick W. Kagan.
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