Ukraine Braces for Critical Winter Phase as Front Line May Shift 35 km Westward

Ukraine’s front line is expected to shift 30-35 kilometers (19-22 miles) westward by December as Ukraine prepares to call up 160,000 additional troops between November and February.

As reported by Financial Times (FT), the next few months could be a critical phase in the war, with Ukraine aiming to reinforce its defenses and improve its negotiating position with Moscow ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s presidency, which might influence talks. 

Centre for Defense Strategies (CDS), a military think-tank, estimated that “the front line will probably shift 30-35 kilometers (19-22 miles) west of its current position” by December.  

Moscow has intensified its offensive recently, with Russian forces advancing at their fastest pace since 2022. Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that defenses in the east are “crumbling” due to manpower shortages, as per the FT report.

Additional medical personnel are being deployed to the eastern front in anticipation of intensified fighting in both the southern and eastern regions as Moscow’s attacks intensified, a Ukrainian army spokesperson told FT.

FT added that Trump, set to take office in January, has pledged to “end the war in 24 hours” and questioned ongoing US military aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reportedly hope that stabilizing the front lines and demonstrating resilience by January could help persuade Trump to maintain US support.

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Since August, Russia has captured over 1,200 square kilometers (463 square miles) in Ukraine, roughly double the territory Kyiv’s forces currently hold in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Deep State, an independent frontline tracking platform.

Manpower remains Ukraine’s biggest challenge

Ukraine faces an ongoing manpower crisis as troops along the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) front face continuous Russian air and ground assaults.

A commander near Kurakhove, a hotspot in eastern Ukraine, told FT that Russian forces are “attacking from three sides” and added that his unit was ready to pull back. However, he said they had not yet received the order to retreat.

The critical logistics hubs of Kurakhove and Pokrovsk are heavily damaged, and the latter’s coking plant – vital for Ukraine’s steel industry – has come under heavy attack.

According to Ukrainian Major General Dmytro Marchenko, the eastern front is “crumbling” due to ammo and manpower shortages. 

“People are very exhausted. They simply cannot hold the fronts they are on,” he said.

Commanders and analysts agree that a lack of manpower, especially infantry, is Ukraine’s biggest challenge. 

Plans to draft an additional 160,000 troops by February are underway, though experts doubt they will hit the target, expecting closer to 100,000 – a number that will only fill about half of the current gap.

Efforts to recruit are hampered by open-ended service terms, with one senior soldier noting, “A lot of guys now see mobilization as a death sentence.” 

Stanislav Aseyev, a Ukrainian journalist-turned-soldier, warned that without clearer service terms, recruits may remain as “demoralized and ineffective as the current battle-weary infantry.”

Though Ukrainian Air Force Colonel Yuriy Ihnat recently claimed that some Air Force personnel were reassigned to the front lines, a spokesperson later clarified that Air Force units, including engineers, pilots and medics, remain in their specialized roles.

Two commanders on the eastern front reported that skilled personnel, including medics, have at times been reassigned to infantry roles. 

“War requires these things sometimes,” one commander said. “I’ve sent my cooks to the trenches before.”

Key battle shaping up in Russia’s Kursk region

“A key battle is also shaping up in Russia’s Kursk region, parts of which Ukraine seized in a surprise incursion in August,” reads FT’s report.

According to President Volodymyr Zelensky and Western intelligence, Russia is preparing a 50,000-strong force, including roughly 10,000 North Korean troops, to reclaim the Kursk region – including the city of Sudzha, where Ukraine has established a command center.

Russia aims to retake at least parts of the Kursk region before Trump’s inauguration, per the CDS. FT said losing Kursk could weaken Ukraine’s position in potential negotiations with Moscow. 

Meanwhile, Putin has signaled openness to talks only if Ukraine accepts all his demands, which would require Kyiv to give up all Russian-occupied regions in the east and south. 

However, Russia’s recent gains have come at a high cost, with UK Defense Chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin estimating Russian daily casualties in October to be around 1,500, and total losses since February 2022 reaching 700,000.

To boost recruitment, Russia has increased payouts for those joining the fight, which has led to views among Russians that soldiers are “in it for the money,” analyst Dara Massicot told FT.

North Korea may also send a second wave of 20,000 troops to aid Russia and provide military support worth $5.5 billion, as per an October report by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom.

“Any advantage in manpower and equipment counts,” a Western security official said, adding that while Russia may face challenges sustaining arms production, “Ukraine has much bigger problems now.”