Psychological War, Intercontinental Ballistic Threat: Russia’s Latest Move Against Ukraine

Reports were circulating Wednesday, Nov. 20 on Ukrainian social media that Russia has been planning a large-scale missile strike for the same day. The strike reportedly is expected to involve a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles). However, at least some of the reports are Russian disinformation, Ukraine’s military intelligence “HUR” said.

The US Embassy in Kyiv warned American citizens on Nov. 20 about a potential missile strike, expected to take place on the same day.

The warning, posted on the embassy’s website, cites “specific information” regarding the threat. The embassy has urged US nationals in Ukraine to be prepared to seek immediate shelter during air alerts.

This warning follows heightened tensions after Ukraine reportedly used US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles against an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk region. The attack came days after Washington authorized Kyiv to use these weapons in response to escalating Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy – 120 missiles and 90 drones on Sunday – and the arrival of North Korean troops in Russia.

The embassies of Spain, Italy, and Greece in Kyiv suspended operations for the day due to a potential “security threat.” The Kazakh embassy has also urged its citizens to leave the country.

Meanwhile, some Ukrainian Telegram channels with large followings have begun spreading messages suggesting that Russia has a significant stockpile of cruise and ballistic missiles ready for deployment.

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Other Telegram channels have reported preparations for the launch of an unknown ballistic missile from the Kapustin Yar test site in Russia’s Astrakhan region, which is less than 600 kilometers (373 miles) from the front lines in Ukraine. One of the missiles reportedly being considered is the RS-26 Rubezh, an intercontinental strategic ballistic missile.

Though the source of this information remains unclear, the RBC-Ukraine media outlet reported that the Strategic Control channel, which specializes in monitoring radio frequencies and tracking Russian military transport aircraft, was likely the first to release such a warning.

According to the Strategic Control channel, the potential use of the RS-26 Rubezh is likely a response to Ukrainian ATACMS ballistic missile strikes.

“The deployment of the RS-26 in the Astrakhan region allows for the possibility of launching missiles at Ukraine from the east, bypassing most of the anti-missile systems positioned near the northern borders,” the report states. “This also reduces the likelihood of interception during the missile’s early flight stages.”

At the same time, the Strategic Control channel suggested that reports of a potential strike by the Rubezh missile could be an attempt by the Kremlin to exert psychological pressure and demonstrate strength to Ukraine’s Western partners. RBC-Ukraine noted that this message was removed from the Telegram channel.

The first successful test of the RS-26 Rubezh took place in May 2012, when the missile, launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, covered 5,800 kilometers (3,604 miles) in minutes, hitting its target at the Kura test site.

The missile was expected to enter service in 2015, with deployment planned for 2017. However, in 2018, it was reported that the mobile missile complex RS-26 “Rubezh” would be excluded from the armament program until 2027.

The exact characteristics of the missile are not fully confirmed, though open sources suggest the following: a launch weight of 40-50 tons, a flight range of up to 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles), an accuracy of 150 meters (492 feet), and a warhead mass of 1.2 tons. Reports indicate that the missile’s mass is equivalent to three Iskander-M missiles.

Defense Express military outlet has stated that a combat launch of the missile is unlikely. So far, no official has confirmed the possibility of a Russian attack using the Rubezh missile.

Later, reports from the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) emerged, stating that Russia was conducting a large-scale information and psychological attack against Ukraine.

“A message is being spread via messengers and social networks, allegedly from the HUR, warning of a ‘particularly massive’ missile and bomb strike on Ukrainian cities today,” the report read.

“This message is a fake, containing grammatical errors typical of Russian information and psychological operations,” Ukrainian intelligence said.

The HUR added that these measures are part of Russia’s strategy to intimidate and psychologically pressure Ukrainian society. However, intelligence officials urged Ukrainians not to ignore air raid sirens, while also encouraging them to avoid panic.

In response, the largest considered to be credible Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel, Nikolaevsky Vanek, reported:

“I have no information about missiles targeting Kyiv or mass shelling throughout the city.”

The report clarified that no strategic bombers were in the air, and that six ships with Kalibr missiles had been at sea for several days. It also mentioned that there were no reports of launches of supercontinental ballistic missiles.

“Information campaigns do not affect me, and the closure of embassies does not bother me,” Nikolaevsky Vanek concluded. “Why weren’t they closed when there were actual missile launches and a lot of drone activity?”