ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 25, 2024

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast and are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing towards important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of western Donetsk Oblast and running into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in Kaluga Oblast and an airbase in Kursk Oblast on the night of November 24 to 25.
• Ukrainian military officials continue to warn of potential Russian ground operations against Zaporizhzhia City, though the timeline and scale of this offensive operation remain unclear due to the operational constraints imposed by ongoing Russian operations in Kursk and Donetsk oblasts.
• North Korea is reportedly expanding a key weapons facility likely used to supply Russia with ballistic missiles.
• The Kremlin signaled that it would remove the Taliban from its list of prohibited organizations amid intensified Russia-Taliban rapprochement.
• Russian forces recently advanced in southwestern Toretsk and south and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian command posts are reportedly relying on Chinese-made radios for internal communications because Russia cannot domestically produce enough quality radios for the Russian military.

Authors: Karolina Hird, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, Olivia Gibson, and George Barros.

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