What Does the French Government’s Fall Mean for the EU?

The successful vote of no confidence in the French government this week coincides with the premature end of Germany's governing coalition. The fact that two key EU member states are now mired in economic and government crises gives Europe's commentators pause for thought.

A new centre of power has emerged

The Berlin-Paris axis is no longer the bloc's mainstay, Poland’s Rzeczpospolita notes:

The balance of power after the major EU enlargement of 2004 is gradually shifting. The EU is no longer as clearly divided into north and south as it was in the past, with the former represented by Germany and the latter represented by France. In that set-up, whenever these two countries were in agreement it meant that the EU was essentially in agreement. This is no longer the case today, because as a result of the war in Ukraine a different centre has clearly emerged and is striving for power, namely the Nordic-Baltic axis with Polish participation. The old dualistic division is therefore no longer valid, and an agreement reached in advance between Berlin and Paris on key issues is no longer sufficient.

Poland a beacon of hope

Germany’s Der Tagesspiegel reflects on Europe's future in light of the government crises in Germany and France:

How can Europe project strength when its two giants are faltering? The answer could lie in the east, where Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is preparing to take on a leading role in Europe. Poland alone will hardly be able to compensate for the Franco-German vacuum. But in view of the increasing threat from Russia, the country can play a decisive role. And in dark times it can act as a beacon of hope for Europe.”

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Fatal consequences for the Eurozone

Hungary’s 444 fears an EU-wide economic crisis:

France is the second largest economy in the Eurozone, and the chaos is likely to be felt beyond its borders. The Greek example clearly demonstrated that crises cannot be contained within a single country. ... But back then, Germany, under Angela Merkel's leadership, was stable and could afford to bail out its troubled allies and had the economic and political capital to do so. However, this is no longer the case, to put it mildly: the problems of the German government are now even greater than those of the German economy.

The end of Macronism

Macron's political strategy has failed, Italy’s Corriere della Sera concludes:

Because the red-brown alliance between the two opposing populisms has won. ... In last June's elections, the president stopped Marine Le Pen's advance thanks to an undeclared but open alliance with the left. But then he launched a government that depended on Marine Le Pen's goodwill. That couldn't last. ... Macron has lost the game. This is the end of Macronism. The idea of clipping the wings and moving to the centre worked for two presidential elections but collapsed in the face of the social crisis and the president's unpopularity.

Reprinted from the Eurotopics site. See the originals here and also here.