Moscow Leveraging Threat Against Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to Raise Stakes

The Kremlin is attempting to use the threat of an offensive in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as a bargaining tool, similar to their tactics with the use of the “Oreshnik” ballistic missile, to raise the stakes. This was stated by the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalenko, on Friday, Dec 6, while commenting on remarks made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in an interview with American blogger and host Tucker Carlson.

“Putinists are trying to inflate and present the threat to the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as a condition for negotiation, making it believable to the US. This nonsense was voiced by Lavrov in his interview with Tucker Carlson, while the Russian army conducts mock crossings of the Dnipro River during exercises and prepares for active operations in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions,” Kovalenko stated on his Telegram channel.

In their strategy to raise the stakes, the Russians are attempting to “bargain” with threats: “The same way they did with the Oreshnik [nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile] case,” Kovalenko added.

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, published on social media platform X on the night of Dec. 5, Sergey Lavrov voiced the Kremlin’s ultimatum regarding the war in Ukraine. According to him, peace in Ukraine requires “no NATO, no military bases, and no training involving foreign troops.”

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Moreover, Lavrov claimed that the West must take into account “the realities on the ground,” including changes to the Russian Constitution following so-called referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Russia now considers its territory.

The head of Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, Vitaliy Kim, stated on Thursday, Dec 5, that authorities have been aware of a potential Russian assault on the right bank of the Dnipro River for approximately four months. According to him, the military fully understands the situation and is prepared to respond.

“They have officially begun talking about Russians preparing to storm the right bank of the Dnipro. I can say that this information appeared about four months ago. We have been preparing… We understand that this will either be a diversionary maneuver or something else. We know their forces and capabilities, so we will respond accordingly,”Kim said.

Earlier, the spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, Vladyslav Voloshyn, noted that Russian troops are constantly conducting assaults on the Kherson direction and are trying to secure positions in the island zone near Kherson.

The head of Kherson Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, in an interview with Financial Times, stated that Russian forces have gathered around 300 boats for a potential crossing of the Dnipro River and plan to launch a new offensive.

“Russia wants to launch another offensive here,” said Prokudin, adding that Russian forces had assembled “300 boats to cross the river.”

Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Southern Forces of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, added that Russian forces are attempting to seize river islands to advance across the right, northern, bank of the Dnipro River, toward Kherson. Recently, they launched a significant assault on Kozatsky island northeast of the city, near Nova Kakhovka.