Assad Ousted: What Now in Syria?

The regime of Bashar Assad, whose family ruled Syria for more than four decades, has been toppled in a matter of just a few days. Armed opposition groups took power in Damascus on Sunday and opened the regime's prisons. According to information from Moscow, Assad has fled to Russia. Commentators assess Syria's prospects in the new constellation.

Glimmer of hope

Syria deserves support, writes The Netherlands’ De Volkskrant:

Hopefully, the rebels won't clash among themselves and forfeit their fragile unity against Assad. ... After the fall of the caliphate in 2019, Assad regained the initiative with the help of Iran and Russia. Even if these countries have now abandoned him, they will be watching the developments in Syria very closely. ... Despite all the uncertainties about the future, this revolution, if properly managed, deserves support. And it is encouraging to see so many Syrians wanting the same thing: unity, stability and peace.

Colossal challenges and risks

Spain’s Eldiario.es takes a worried look at the looming social problems:

Can the pre-war Syrian mosaic – multi-ethnic, multi-religious, unusually tolerant and secular – be pieced back together? ... The challenges facing us are colossal. The civil war killed more than 300,000 people. ... Half the population is displaced. ... The prisons are now emptying, sending a tide of angry, embittered, physically and psychologically scarred and vengeful people back into a devastated, already dysfunctional society. Humanitarian and security calamities loom. Destructive foreign meddling – central to the story of Syria since the war began – is another very real threat if things fall apart.

Other Topics of Interest

Russian Troops in Syria Lack Food and Water - Ukrainian Intelligence Report

Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) said Sunday that water and food shortages have been reported in Moscow’s two remaining Syrian bases and ships currently anchored at sea.

Now hardcore Islamists are taking over

Denmark’s Politiken takes a worried look at the future for minorities in Syria:

The rebels are led by the jihadist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – an extremist group that grew out of the Islamic State and was allied with Al Qaeda. Since then, it has become less extremist but still consists of hardcore Islamists. If they take power in Syria, a country with many religious minorities and a long tradition of religious tolerance, this could lead to new waves of refugees. ... Europe can and should do its utmost to ensure that they are not driven out - and get ready to provide Syria with massive help in the extensive reconstruction effort that lies ahead.”

An easy victory for Erdoğan

Italy’s La Repubblica comments:

It is striking how easily Turkey has pushed the Sunni rebels to topple Assad by openly defying Russia and Iran, the major protectors of Damascus. ... Erdoğan sees Damascus as part of his natural neo-Ottoman sphere of influence and is showing that he knows how to use his proxies effectively: Sunni militias, more or less jihadist, traceable to the Muslim Brotherhood's ideology of political Islam - a current of which the AKP party, with which Erdoğan has dominated Turkish political life for almost a quarter of a century, is also an expression.

A major defeat for Moscow

Assad's fall is a bitter blow for Putin, Hungary’s Jutarnji list notes:

By leaving Assad to his fate, Putin has revealed a number of weaknesses. Firstly, he is no longer able to protect every one of his allies, which will give them pause for thought. Secondly, it shows that Russia is not all that strong but has limited resources, since it is obviously unable to fight on several fronts. Thirdly, by abandoning the Middle East, Russia has lost its clout in the region and confirmed the theory that the war in Ukraine has not only worn Russia down but also reduced its 'sphere of influence', making it less of a world power than Putin would like.

Iran will be hysterical

Iran and its possible reactions must not be ignored, the Turkish pro-government daily Sabah commented even before Assad's final fall:

Tehran, which from the beginning developed instruments based on confessions to turn the Iraq-Syria-Lebanon axis into a Shiite crescent, is very unhappy about this weakening of Assad. ... Iran, demoralized by the missile wars with Israel and with severely weakened paramilitary elements such as Hashd al-Shaabi and Hezbollah, is expected to get hysterical. As a state that cannot be ignored, Iran should be seen as a destabilising rather than a stabilising force in Syria.

Reprinted from the Eurotopics site.  See the original here.