Setting the scene
The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming change to the US administration has become a catalyst for European countries to intensify their efforts to support Ukraine and enhance collective security. In recent weeks, we have witnessed increased diplomatic activity as well as an improvement in the political climate between Poland and Ukrainian.
The past weeks have been marked by a true diplomatic offensive aimed at securing continued support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia, advocating for a ceasefire or truce favorable to Kyiv and Europe while strengthening the levels of security among EU and NATO countries - it is difficult to speak of peace, as Russia is unlikely to change its objectives.
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In late November, during the Summit of the Nordics (Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland), Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia), and Poland in Stockholm, discussions focused on establishing a naval policing mission in the Baltic Sea, modeled after the existing air policing mission.
Alliances within the Alliance
This initiative did not emerge out of nowhere. Their rapprochement, which began to be evident from the beginning of the full-scale invasion, has accelerated recently. An alliance within the alliance does not imply a lack of involvement from other countries. Discussions in other formats, including bilateral meetings, also involve the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.
Among many meetings and summits, it is worth noting that on Dec. 12, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Warsaw. He met with his Polish counterpart and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The visit took place during an ongoing political crisis in France and a day before his proposed candidate for prime minister was to be put forward.
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France is not the only significant European country grappling with internal challenges - early elections are scheduled in Germany for February 2025. Donald Tusk is attempting to leverage the temporary weakness of these countries and Poland’s upcoming presidency of the EU Council, which begins on Jan. 1, to strengthen his position, Kyiv Post sources say.
During a press conference with Macron, Tusk criticized the France’s proposal to deploy a 40,000-strong European peacekeeping military contingent:
“I want to take this opportunity to put an end to speculation regarding the presence of troops from any country in Ukraine after a truce, ceasefire, or peace is achieved. Decisions regarding Poland’s actions will be made in Warsaw and only in Warsaw. For now, we are not planning such actions” – he said.
It does not mean a cessation of support for Ukraine. Poland is beginning its election campaign ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for May as Polish society fears being drawn into the war.
Tusk’s words are not solely driven by polls - the hypothetical presence of Polish troops in Ukraine would be exploited by Russian propaganda, which has long been spreading the narrative about Poland’s alleged desire to annex parts of western Ukraine. Furthermore, Polish soldiers could become targets of potential Russian provocations or other forms of aggressive actions.
It is difficult to predict how this situation will develop, but everything could change after the presidential elections in Poland. Of course, much depends on their outcome.
Equally important are the elections in Germany. Polls indicate a victory for the CDU under the leadership of Friedrich Merz. Since Angela Merkel’s time, his party has undergone a significant transformation, maintains good relations with the Polish government, and advocates for greater support for Ukraine, including the provision of Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. Ukrainian-Polish political relations have also intensified.
The leaders of both countries recently held a phone conversation, and according to Kyiv Post sources, Donald Tusk will visit Kyiv later this year. In 2025, a return visit will take place, with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky traveling to Warsaw.
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This should be considered a warming of the political climate. Let us recall: the summer and autumn of 2024 were marked by numerous disputes over history and the Volhynia massacre. Several factors have given a new direction to the relationship:
- the Polish presidency of the EU Council, which could prove beneficial for Ukraine in terms of integration with European structures,
- uncertainty stemming from the change of administration in the United States,
- Kyiv’s political strategy of “no quarrels with neighbors.”
According to Kyiv Post sources, it all began with Warsaw sending Kyiv a clear message that Poland expects the issue of the exhumation of the Polish victims of Volhynia to be resolved. This was met with a positive response, as we previously reported here, and according to our information, the first archaeological works are set to begin in the spring.
Alongside meetings at the expert and ministerial levels, there is also growing social interaction. Unlike the fluctuating political climate, Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Poles, while worse than in 2022, remain good and stable.
This sentiment is well captured by two public opinion surveys published in December of this year. The first one was prepared by the Mieroszewski Center, and the second by the Center for Security Studies at Austria’s ETH. Their results differ slightly but show the same trend, which compares very favorably to relations with other neighbors and represents significant capital.
The period leading up to Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States in January has been marked by intense shelling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and cities, widespread power outages, and great uncertainty.
For EU allied countries, the future also raises many questions, prompting accelerated diplomatic efforts to support Ukraine and ensure their own security. This does not signal a divorce from the American ally - there is a visible strategy aimed at gaining Republican favor, as evidenced by declarations to increase defense spending and talks with Trump during the opening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris.
On a political level, Polish-Ukrainian relations are improving, while in the next six months, the rhetoric of politicians will be put to the test.
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