Azerbaijan Calls Neighboring Armenia ‘Fascist’ – New War on Horizon?

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Tuesday called neighboring Armenia a “fascist state” and said it has to be destroyed.

“Since this country has been ruled for almost 30 years by carriers of fascist ideology, they have shaped this country in their own image. Therefore, fascism must be destroyed. It will be destroyed either by the Armenian leadership or by us. We have no other choice,” Aliyev said during an interview with a local TV channel.

Aliyev also called on Western nations to stop arming Yerevan amidst Baku’s growing political ties and Yerevan’s deteriorating relations with Moscow.

In September 2023, Armenia lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed territory with neighboring Azerbaijan following Baku’s lightning offensive in part due to the inaction of the Russian peacekeeping forces deployed in the region as part of earlier peace agreements.

Radio Liberty noted in its Wednesday report that Baku and Yerevan have been negotiating a peace agreement after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with limited progress.

Complex geopolitical play unfolding

Aliyev’s vow to destroy the so-called “fascism” in Armenia echoed Moscow’s narrative on Ukraine, but that was only part of the story.

After the decades-long Karabakh conflict ended, Armenia distanced itself from Moscow – whose peacekeeping forces failed to safeguard Yerevan’s interests – and Baku got closer to Moscow and its allies instead.

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Yerevan later claimed that Russia and Belarus actively supported Baku’s offensive against Armenia, where Yerevan then announced its withdrawal from the Moscow-led military alliance, Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

Meanwhile, Aliyev welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin in Baku with warm embraces in August 2024, where the Kremlin said the two discussed bilateral ties and “international and regional problems.”

But then the plane crash happened.

On Dec. 25, the Azerbaijan Airlines jet Embraer 190, while en route from Baku to the Chechen city of Grozny in southern Russia, crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau after going off course, killing 38 of the 67 people onboard.

Aliyev, citing available evidence, said Russian air defense shot it down and demanded “justice” – Putin apologized but stopped short of claiming responsibility, to which Aliyev hinted his dissatisfaction.

But will that turn Baku away from Moscow? Possibly, but there are no signs of that happening yet.

Is a new war on the horizon?

Both Baku and Yerevan said they wanted peace while accusing each other of escalation.

“I want to say again that we cannot just watch this as observers. Armenia must immediately stop arming,” Aliyev told reporters during his Tuesday interview.

Meanwhile, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said earlier in December that unless Azerbaijan attacks first, there will be no war.

“I can guarantee that Armenia has no intention, goals or plans to attack or engage in any provocative actions against Azerbaijan, and that it will not take that path. If Azerbaijan also doesn’t have intentions to attack Armenia, then the likelihood of escalation in the region is zero,” Pashinyan told reporters.

An August 2024 report by Radio France Internationale (RFI) said both Baku and Yerevan are rearming.

At present, there are no immediate indications (such as troop movements) pointing towards an imminent war – but short of that, the signs point toward a continuing escalation between the two.

One possible theory – which is speculation at best – is Azerbaijan striking Armenia and opening a new front in Europe at Moscow’s behest, which would further divide Western support for Ukraine without substantial work by Moscow.

However, that would also likely require a green light from Baku’s major backer Turkey and thus remain a weak theory at present.